Suburban Handicap 2016: Odds and Analysis

As part of the excellent Stars & Stripes card at Belmont Park, the historic Suburban Handicap will hold its own with any of the six graded stakes carded on Saturday. In fact, top to bottom, I believe it to be the most interesting out of any of them. While true there is no California Chrome, nor Frosted in this one, there are still no less than five of my top twelve ranked older males in the nation set to duke it out for the top prize. They’ll all be going for the winner’s share of the $500,000 purse in the ten-furlong affair, as well as the honor of adding their name to a roll call of winners that includes such names as; Tom Fool, Nashua, Kelso, Buckpasser, Dr. Fager, Forego, Easy Goer, Skip Away, Mineshaft, Invasor, and Mucho Macho Man. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the field of eight, with my analysis and projected odds…

Eagle (4-1) -  Waiting for this smallish son of Candy Ride to breakthrough and win something big has been an exercise in patience. If I am right, the waiting will be over, come Saturday afternoon. In trying to emulate his broodmare sire, Mineshaft, for the same connections, Eagle will find a couple of things for the first time which I expect him to enjoy. The Suburban will afford him the sweeping turns of Belmont Park for which to uncoil his relentless late run. That combined with the mile and a quarter distance, and I suspect he will find a recipe for success. The four-year-old colt has been first or second in eight of his last nine races, with only a brutal trip in the New Orleans Handicap standing in the way of nine-for-nine. Three races back he bravely reeled in a loose on the lead Noble Bird in the Ben Ali, and last time he went nine-wide only to fall a half-length short in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster. Ready to Soar

Effinex (3-1) – Will the real Effinex please stand up? Hives in the Big Cap -- An impressive win in the Oaklawn Handicap, which was further flattered by Melatonin’s win in the Gold Cup -- A clunker as a heavy favorite in the Foster. I guess with Effinex you just are never sure what you are going to get. The New York-bred is the defending champ in this Grade 2, having won the bob over Tonalist in a real thriller last summer, but even at Belmont Park his record is spotty. One of two in here from the barn of Jimmy Jerkens, my guess is that he will bounce back off the stinker last time and run a good race on Saturday. Ten furlongs also seems to be a good distance for him. If he does run his best, does he win this? He very well may. Top Threat

Mubtaahij (5-2) – He ran a very solid second to California Chrome in the world’s richest race. Since that effort in the Dubai World Cup, the Irish-bred globetrotter has moved to America and taken up residence in the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin. Best on dirt, the shift should be good for the romping winner of last year’s UAE Derby. It’s been 3 ½ months since that last race, but he seems to be to settling in to his new surroundings well, with a series of solid morning moves at Belmont. Keep in mind, he does have experience over the track, having finished a decent fourth in last year’s Belmont Stakes. On his best, he certainly can win this, but with the layoff, and the fact that he has not actually finished first in a race in more than a year, I think it is worth it to take a shot against as the most likely favorite. Respected Invader

Noble Bird (6-1) – The speed in a race lacking much speed, Noble Bird, from the red-hot Mark Casse barn, has been another tough horse to figure out. When he brings his best to the table, see last year’s Stephen Foster, and this year’s Pimlico Special, he can look like a true Grade 1 horse. Many other times, though, he seems less than completely interested in giving it his all. For those that like him in here, the good news is you will get some odds after getting his clock cleaned last time by Frosted. You will also get a completely different pace scenario here, as well. In fact, if he is allowed to lope on the lead for too long over a Belmont main track that has played very fast of late, he could become a horse near impossible to catch when the real running begins. Will Try to Take Them All the Way

Shaman Ghost (4-1) – The 2015 Queen’s Plate winner made a real impression on the New York crowd last time. Making his second start of the year, and only his third start since winning Canada’s most prestigious race last summer, the son of Ghostzapper blew the doors off his competition in the Grade 2 Brooklyn. Now he cuts back in distance for the Suburban, and must prove that he can run with some of the big boys of American racing. Both of those factors make me want to play against the second formidable entry from Jimmy Jerkens barn. It’s never easy cutting back from a big performance at 12 furlongs, and the competition in here is notably stronger than he saw on Belmont Stakes afternoon.  Tougher Competition This Time

Samraat (15-1) – Once a horse who fit with the best of his generation, or at least was in the picture against them, Samraat is now a horse searching for his first victory since the Gotham in March of 2014. Two extended layoffs due to physical setbacks have been a big part of that winless stretch, but he has had three chances now as a five-year-old. While I'd like to see him do well, and his recent form keeps hope alive, this spot is his toughest since the Tonalist Belmont. I will pass. Needs a Softer Spot

Turco Bravo (15-1) – The Chilean-bred gelding has carved out a nice niche for himself running in long distance dirt races in the United States. Usually a factor in races at 11 furlongs or longer, he ran another solid race to be second in the Brooklyn last time. Unfortunately for his chances on Saturday, this test is both shorter and stronger than the Brooklyn, making him hard to recommend in here.  Not With These

Tapin Mojo (30-1) – Well he did win five-of-six last year. The problem is has yet to run this year, and worse yet, he has never run in anything other than claiming events. He is not for me.  Outclassed

Get Trifecta and Superfecta Tickets for the Suburban, Belmont Derby & Belmont Oaks!