Zipse: Stronghold throws his hat in the Kentucky Derby ring

The odds of winning this year’s Kentucky Derby look set to come down to Fierceness, Sierra Leone and everyone else. Fair enough, those two have separated themselves in recent weeks, but the Derby is not like other races. With 20 horses in the starting gate, America’s most prestigious horse race often is a bit wacky.

If Fierceness has any trouble at all early and Sierra Leone finds traffic coming from the back of the pack, the 2024 running of the run for the roses will be ripe for an upset. The “everyone else” will include plenty of nice horses, many of whom are getting better at the right time, and all of them will have enticing odds.

One such horse is the Grade 1 winner Stronghold. Let’s look back to the seventh race at Churchill Downs on the first day of October last year. Who could have known what we were seeing ahead of time in the one-mile maiden race?

The first three horses separated themselves from the rest of the nine-horse field that afternoon, and the final time of 1:35.99 was plenty solid. The winning favorite was Stronghold, and the second and third-place finishers were Resilience and Track Phantom.

Combined, the top three from that maiden race have gone on to win five stakes races, four of them graded, including the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and the Wood Memorial (G2). Clearly it has become a very key race, and it was over the same track as this year’s Kentucky Derby.

In fact, it is still the strongest field that Stronghold has beaten to date, but the athletic son of Ghostzapper is only getting better this year at 3.

Trained by Phil D’Amato and owned and bred by Eric and Sharon Waller, the bay colt has never run a bad race and owns three wins and three seconds in his six career starts. After finishing second in a fast sprint at Ellis Park in his career debut, he came to Churchill to win what we now know was a loaded maiden affair.

Since then, it’s been nothing but graded stakes races out west for the Kentucky homebred. He finished second in a pair of them to finish his juvenile season and has raised his game in 2024.

Sent off as the favorite in the Sunland Derby (G3) in New Mexico on Feb. 18, he looked good in winning his sophomore debut. But he would need a tougher test before heading back to Kentucky, and he got just that on Saturday in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby.

With Antonio Fresu taking the reins for the fourth consecutive time, Stronghold was sent off as the 2-1 second choice in the field of eight. Of course, the favorite Imagination was trained by Bob Baffert.

He may be banned from the Kentucky Derby again this year, but the Hall of Fame conditioner absolutely owns the Santa Anita Derby. He had two in the field on Saturday, and Imagination was the one who had proven himself in recent starts.

Sitting off a fast early pace but finding a bit of traffic as the real running began, Stronghold bravely split horses at the top of the stretch and engaged the even-money favorite in mid-stretch. With the momentum on his side, he looked to be a winner, but then Imagination, with a red-hot Frankie Dettori in the saddle, came right back at him.

And the race to the winner’s circle in the 87th edition of the key Kentucky Derby prep was on. The two graded-stakes winners separated themselves from the rest, but it was Stronghold who was going best as they neared the wire. The D’Amato runner had edged the Baffert charge by a neck, as his jubilant rider celebrated in style.

Fresu, a 32-year-old native of the Italian island Sardinia, had good reason to be hit by a wave of emotion crossing the finish line. Not only was this his first Grade 1 win in America, but he also knew that his horse was headed straight to Churchill Downs for his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

The final time for the 1 1/8 miles over the fast Santa Anita main track was a solid 1:49.98. In winning for the second time in as many starts as a 3-year-old, the horse who scored in that key maiden race early last fall at Churchill Downs is proving to be still improving as we approach the first Saturday in May.

Perhaps his series of strong workouts at Santa Anita in the last few months are as much of an indication of how good he is getting as his two graded-stakes wins this year.

Nimble and seasoned enough to move through traffic, Stronghold has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance early. Never worse than second in six career starts, and returning to the track where he broke his maiden impressively, there would seem to be a lot to like about Stronghold as a Kentucky Derby long shot.

The best version of Fierceness is downright scary, and the long-striding Sierra Leone remains my top choice for this year’s Kentucky Derby, but neither will have odds.

Everyone else will, and Stronghold is one who appears to have a shot in the one race that everyone dreams to win.