Stephen Foster Handicap 2017: Odds and Analysis

If the home field horse runs his race in Saturday evening's Grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap, the others may well be competing for second place. Back at his home track, Gun Runner, a multiple graded stakes winner at Churchill Downs, looms an imposing presence in the half-million dollar affair. As the first Breeders' Cup 'Win & You're In' domestic qualifier for the Classic, a win here takes the pressure off all the way until November at Del Mar, where they will likely get a chance to knock off the mighty Arrogate. While the challenge of facing that champion is on the horizon, the nine-furlong test on Saturday is in the immediate. Let's take a look at the field of eight, including my analysis and projected odds ...

3) Gun Runner (4-5) - The impressive winner of last fall's local Grade 1 Clark Handicap ran a big race in the rich Dubai World Cup last time. Of course, due to the superior efforts of Arrogate, the excellent performance of Gun Runner was only good for second place. After a little rest and relaxation, the copper colored son of Candy Ride looks like a million bucks in advance of what will be his first race in 12 weeks. Florent Geroux will take his familiar place in the saddle for the Steve Asmussen trainee, as he looks for his eighth victory in 15 career starts. His record at Churchill Downs is excellent, and the nine-furlong trip might be his ideal. There is some other speed in here to keep him company early, but with his class, they probably will do so at the their own peril if they try to go with the 124-pound highweight early. Strictly the One to Beat

5) Mo Tom (15-1) - On recent form, it's hard to get excited about the chances of Mo Tom in any Grade 1 race, let alone against the horse who is probably the second best in the United States. Having said that, I think the son of Uncle Mo might be ready to fire his best shot of 2017. It came against cheaper, but the Ohio Derby winner did show his first true sign of rounding back into form when he rallied against the bias while well wide to be second on the Kentucky Derby undercard. With classy horses like Bird Song and Stanford up against it early while pressuring Gun Runner, this horse, with plenty of back class could be the one to pick up most of the pieces in the stretch. Longshot Late Runner

4) Honorable Duty (6-1) - If you subscribe to my theory that second-place in the Foster could be ripe for a come from behind type, this is the horse with all the recent form. While Mo Tom needs to regain his best form, Honorable Duty comes into the Foster on a career best cycle for trainer, Brendan Walsh. In his last four races, all stakes, the five-year-old gelding has three wins and a second, and much like Mo Tom, he battled the bias last time when he finished second to Bird Song in the Grade 2 Alysheba. With a little pace to run at this time, and on a more honest racing surface, I like his chances to turn the tables on that one. In Career Best Form

1) Bird Song (9-2) - Speaking of career best form, this four-year-old son of Unbridled's Song has never been better than he is right now. Trained by Ian Wilkes, he's earned his first two career stakes wins in his last three starts, and has done so in fine fashion. He also sports a three-race winning streak at Churchill Downs after losing his second career start here. The problem for the very well bred and improving grey, is that when he wins, he wires the field. With the likes of Gun Runner, and not to mention Stanford, in here, the likelihood of him being able to take this field gate to wire seems slim. Sharp Horse Faces Tough Ask

8) Stanford (6-1) - It feels strange to put Stanford down in the fifth spot, but this dangerous Todd Pletcher charge has the same dilemma as Bird Song. He does his best running on the front end, and with Gun Runner in the race, it's hard to see him taking this field all the way. Still, the millionaire son of Malibu Moon is a talented horse, who on his best, is always a threat, and certainly could do better than where I have him rated. Speed Trouble

2) Breaking Lucky (15-1) - Another, whom on his best, certainly has a chance to make some noise in here. Evidence of this can be seen in the competitive performances he turned in last year in the Woodward and the Clark, a pair of Grade 1 races. Unfortunately, I am not loving what he has done since he was second to Gun Runner. If you can assume that he just doesn't like a wet track, you could make a case for him to bounce back, but still, I just don't see enough lately to rate him as highly as most of the others. Doesn't Like it Wet

7) Texas Chrome (20-1) - The 2016 Super Derby and Oklahoma Derby winner has certainly found some difficult spots since his winning streak last year. Beginning with the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, the son of Grasshopper has not had much luck of late, but at least he seems to be rounding into good form with a pair of seconds, albeit not scaring the winner either time, in his last two. His running style should allow him first run at the early leaders, but from a class standpoint, it's hard to see him pulling this off.  Chasing Good Ones

6) Hawaakom (20-1) - Like Mo Tom and Honorable Duty, this seven-year-old gelded son of Jazil will look to be doing his best running down the stretch in the Foster. In two tries against Gun Runner previously, he proved no match, although he was able to cash a second-place check in the Razorback. Not without hope, but of the closers, I like the others betters. Hopes to Rally for a Share