Stephen Foster Handicap 2016: Odds and Analysis

Famed Churchill Downs is the place to be on Saturday night. Their Downs after Dark program will play host to five graded stakes races, including the $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap. The Grade 1 race, which has been won by such stalwarts as Victory Gallop, Awesome Again, Perfect Drift, Saint Liam, Curlin, Blame, Ron the Greek, and Fort Larned in the last few decades alone, is for older runners traversing nine furlongs over the main track. Clearly a race that has fed many live runners into the Breeders’ Cup Classic over the years, this year’s field will be looking to add their names to the impressive roll call of winners. As a ‘Win and You’re In’ race for America’s richest race, they will also be looking to punch their ticket to Santa Anita Park this fall. Let’s take a look at the field of seven, with my analysis and projected odds.

Effinex (1-1) - Ran a very solid second to American Pharoah in last year’s BC Classic, and the five-year-old son of Mineshaft has really not slowed down since then. Already the winner of a pair of graded stakes in the Suburban and the Excelsior before the World Championships, the Jimmy Jerkens-trainee added his first Grade 1 victory immediately after the Breeders’ Cup right here at Churchill Downs. His Clark win, over the same strip he will see on Saturday, validated his performance behind the Triple Crown champion, and capped off a breakthrough season. In two starts this year, he has picked up where he left off, first finishing third in the Big Cap, despite a case of the hives, and then turning in a good looking win in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap last time. From a class perspective, he looks like clearly the one in the Foster, and he also has enough tactical speed to maintain a good position until the real running begins. The Head Honcho

Eagle (4-1) - I still believe that the Neil Howard-trained son of Candy Ride has a big win in him. Could it come under the lights in the Grade 1 Foster? The answer, of course, is yes it can. Two races back, he turned in the best performance so far of his career, when he easily collared and ran by a loose Noble Bird, who actually won this race last year. It seemed like the type of performance that pointed him out as a horse ready to step up into the elite performers of racing. Unfortunately, he was not able to back up that thought when second last time in the Alysheba. Majestic Harbor got the jump on him on a track not favoring ralliers that day. I look for an improved effort on Saturday evening. Top Threat

Majestic Harbor (4-1) -  Just keeps on keeping on. Now eight, the son of Rockport Harbor shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon for trainer, Paul McGee. The Gold Cup winner of 2014 has already accounted for two stakes wins this season. His recent win in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs was one of his career best. Another runner with good tactical speed, Majestic Harbor is not afraid to go right to the lead if the pace is slow, which it could be in this one. Rider, Corey Lanerie, also knows as well as anyone how to win at Churchill. If he can repeat the last effort, and the top one does not fire his absolute best, he can find himself in the local winner’s circle for the fifth time in his career. Crafty Veteran

Bradester (8-1) – The speed of the speed, Bradester has proven himself a dangerous runner on the front end the last few years. Two big stakes victories at Monmouth last summer are proof of that. He also boasts a graded stakes win over this course in the fall of 2014. In his first since a failed run in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile last fall, he was up to his old tricks, controlling the pace and sprinting home to a clear cut win in the Majestic Light Stakes last month. This one is a step up in class, but quality speed like his is always something to worry about. Dangerous Speed 

El Kabeir (12-1) - Scratched out of the Grade 1 Met Mile on Belmont Stakes day, to instead run in this. Considering the kind of masterpiece painted by Frosted in the Met, it seems like a good choice. He also is back at a track for the first time where he scored a graded stakes win as a juvenile. His recent form is spotty, but with good early speed, and plenty of back class, he is the most interesting of the longshots. A Possibility

International Star (12-1) - Since a minor injury after winning three consecutive Kentucky Derby preps in New Orleans, including the 2015 Louisiana Derby, the Ken and Sarah Ramsey runner has just not been quite the same. Having said that, he is running well enough, including some late foot after a rough start in the Charles Town Classic, to believe that with just a little improvement, he could pull off a surprise in a race like this. Not my pick, but hopefully we see something better from him in this test. Needs to Step Up

Are You Kidding Me (12-1) - Coming off one of the best wins in his career in the recent Eclipse Stakes at Woodbine, you might be willing to look at this one as a live value play in the Foster, but I worry about a few things with the six-year-old son of Run Away and Hide. First off, his major success has come on either Polytrack of the turf, not the dirt. If his form can translate to dirt, he is with a chance, but even then, I believe he might fall just a bit short on the class scale. Class and Surface Question