Zipse: Sovereignty, Baeza have made 1 prep key to BC Classic

 A longtime key indicator for the Travers, Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes is becoming a bona fide race to watch for the Breeders’ Cup Classic as well.

Last year’s top two in the Grade 2 race at the Spa went on to dominate the proceedings in the big one at Del Mar. Sierra Leone turned the tables on Fierceness when it really mattered, but the same exacta box in the Jim Dandy also cashed in at the 2024 Classic. 

Sierra Leone and Fierceness will be back at Del Mar on Saturday, but it’s the top two from this year’s Jim Dandy who I believe might be ready to dethrone them in America’s richest race.

Not only do I believe this year’s Jim Dandy with Sovereignty and Baeza was even better than last year’s with Fierceness and Sierra Leone, I also believe the top two from the race have a real shot to come back and run 1-2 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic for the second straight year.

It’s no secret how stout Sovereignty is. His overall record since stretching to two turns last fall in the Street Sense Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs has been a thing of beauty, and he only has gotten better and stronger with maturity. 

His only defeat along the way came five races back at Gulfstream Park in a race where he did not need to win. Using the Florida Derby as a steppingstone, trainer Bill Mott had his big horse ready to peak on the first Saturday in May.

Sovereignty rolled down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, and the Godolphin homebred has been rolling ever since. His Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes (G1) wins were powerful performances that have been much talked about, but his victory in the Jim Dandy was also big.

Sovereignty was tested by a very talented Baeza on that day at Saratoga and was just too good late under rider Júnior Alvarado as they left a trio of graded-stakes winners far behind.

Continuing to be managed with clarity and focus for the big one, and maturing week to week into his impressive frame since, it’s difficult to find a single flaw in the game of Sovereignty.

Baeza has not been the winning machine like his rival, but he too has an enviable record since switching to the dirt in his second career start. Transitioning from an easy maiden score to taking on one of the top colts in the nation in a Grade 1 race never was going to be easy, but Baeza announced himself with a strong second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). 

Considering their respective levels of experience coming into the race, and the fact that the C R K Stable-owned Baeza is more than three months younger than Journalism, it was a huge performance in his stakes debut. 

With less than a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby next, it was Baeza again who ran a big race in a losing effort. Breaking from the extreme outside post and then having to wait in traffic at a key juncture, the son of McKinzie and Puca finished with a flourish and just missed second. It was proof the 1 1/4-mile trip was no problem for the lightly raced colt. 

The Belmont Stakes was admittedly not his best, but he still finished well at this distance to be third behind Sovereignty and Journalism once again. Underrated rider Héctor Berrios would regain the mount for the Jim Dandy, and Baeza was back to his best.

Given a confidence-boosting victory in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and now back in Southern California, I am expecting a strong performance at attractive odds for Baeza in the Classic. His level of maturity finally should be catching up to the big boys. Still, there is Sovereignty. 

No matter how much I look for horses who can beat the favorite in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, I keep circling back to the realization that Sovereignty is the one horse to beat Saturday. 

He appears in every way to be a generational talent who was built for 1 1/4 miles against the very best. That makes me like what I see from this year’s Jim Dandy even more. 

Baeza is the one horse who has come closest in the sensational four-race winning streak of Sovereignty, and the John Shirreffs-trained colt still is improving. 

This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is stronger than last year’s. The top nine horses are all Grade 1 winners and are coming up to the race in good form. A case can be made for any of the nine.

Despite that, I will look to the Jim Dandy once again as a key race to this year’s Classic. Sovereignty as the one to beat and Baeza as the top long shot. Both impressive sophomores look ready to fire a big shot Saturday at Del Mar.