Songbird led Cotillion Stakes 2016: Odds and Analysis

The Grade 1 Cotillion Stakes has consistently attracted many of the top three-year-old fillies in the land to Parx the past half-dozen years. This might be the strongest edition yet. Any race that attracts Songbird is an event, but including the Kentucky Oaks winner, and the Acorn winner, the million-dollar race brings together the best three sophomore fillies in the nation. It is also the first time all three have been in the same race. Let’s take a look at the field, with my projected odds and analysis.

5) Songbird (1-5) – There really isn’t anything to say about the flawless daughter of Medaglia d’Oro that has not been said already. She not only has won every race that she has entered, but she has done so in absolutely dominating style under Mike Smith. There can be no doubt that the Fox Hill Farm star is the best of her age and gender. Perhaps she is better than the boys, as well. This would just seem to be another formality on her way to the Breeders’ Cup. I will throw out a scenario, though, where the unthinkable could happen. Considering all the travel she has been doing of late, and that she is coming out of a ten-furlong race where she ran the last quarter just a bit slow, combined with her top rival having a real liking for this track, maybe, just maybe, she could be in store for her toughest test to date. Stranger things have happened. Having said all that, I cannot pick anyone but the undefeated champion in the top sport. A Perfect 10

2) Cathryn Sophia (4-1) – Most any other year we would be talking about her as a potential champion. Not this year. Not with Songbird in the picture. Cathryn Sophia has won 6-of-8 lifetime, including the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, and has never finished out of the money. Yet, this year, her accomplishments pale in comparison to Songbird. Maybe this is the time to finally take a shot against the champ, though. First off, she loves Parx. She has won each of her two starts there by wide margins. She also should be fresh and fit. Given a breather after her Acorn loss, she worked great in advance of her easy win in the Princess of Sylmar Stakes. This should be the time for her to run big. Will it be enough to have a chance against Songbird? You never know. Chief Threat

1) Carina Mia (6-1) – Two races back in the Coaching Club American Oaks, this talented filly from the Bill Mott barn threw everything but the kitchen sink at Songbird, and it simply wasn’t enough. With the addition of Cathryn Sophia in this one, what would make us think that she could do anything better this time around? I really don’t, but on the other hand, I always respect a horse with this much ability. She is a legitimate grade 1 horse, and that must always be respected. Takes Another Shot

4) Land Over Sea (15-1) – The runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks has disappointed in two starts since, finishing sixth in the Black-Eyed Susan and twelfth in the Belmont Oaks. Still, she does have a few things going for her on Saturday; that back class which also includes a win in the Fair Grounds Oaks, as well as the likely pace scenario. With the top three choices all keeping an eye on each other early, this one figures to be the main beneficiary if fillies up front get tired after a contentious first six furlongs. She has finished second to Songbird three times before. She has a chance to do it again for trainer, Doug O’Neill. Picks up the Pieces

3) Disco Rose (50-1) – While Cathryn Sophia was cruising to victory in the recent Princess of Sylmar Stakes, this was the filly who won the race for second at odds of 19-1. It was a good result for her. This field is significantly tougher; therefore, there is no way I can recommend the winner of 1-of-15 lifetime in this spot. Up Against It

6) Queena Esther (50-1) – Another from the Parx prep for the Cotillion, she was also 19-1 against Cathryn Sophia. Finishing fourth, beaten 15 lengths gives me no confidence that she has any prayer in this Grade 1 event. Fills out the Field