Smarty Jones 2017: Odds and Analysis

The message seems clear; if you want to win a Triple Crown race, you better think about coming to Arkansas and Oaklawn Park to prep. In the last eight seasons alone, no less than nine editions of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, or Belmont Stakes have been won by horses who ran some, or all, of their early season, three-year-old races at the Hot Springs oasis. With that in mind, it behooves handicappers and fans alike to pay close attention to the winter and spring doings down at Oaklawn. Happily, the racing season begins there Friday, and their prep season for the Run to the Roses begins with the Smarty Jones on Monday. With ten 2017 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line to the winner, let’s take a look at the field of eight, including my analysis and projected odds …

6) Uncontested (2-1) – He’s only run twice so far for trainer Wayne Catalano, but the son of Tiz Wonderful, out of a Lil E. Tee mare, has made an impression. Both of those starts came in the fall in Kentucky, where the half-brother to stakes winner, Solitary Ranger romped home in a Keeneland maiden race, before finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Fourth might not sound like much, but considering he had only that very fast sprint win under his belt, it was a strong performance. Breaking from the far outside, he set all the pace that day, just getting nipped on the wire for third by Warrior’s Club. Working well locally, improvement is likely with that performance under his belt, and there are no McCrakens in this one. The bargain $20,000 yearling purchase has the speed to take them all the way in here. The One to Beat

1) Petrov (2-1) – Another with only two lifetime starts, there is also plenty to like about Petrov. Like the top pick, he was a first-out winner in Kentucky, rallying by the speed to win going away. Unlike Uncontested, though, his second start also came in a sprint when the gray son of Flatter just missed getting up in the King’s Swan Stakes at Aqueduct in the middle of November. While his finishing kick in both sprints would seem to say that a flat mile will suit him, it is worth noting that this will be his first voyage around two-turns. He too, has been looking good in morning works at Oaklawn for trainer, Ron Moquett. With visiting Jose Ortiz in the saddle, he should have every chance to prove that he belongs on the Derby trail with a good performance on Monday. Dangerous Rival

4) Rowdy the Warrior (6-1) – Donnie K. Von Hemel is very familiar with this path. Last year he brought Suddenbreakingnews from Remington, to Oaklawn, and finally to a good finish in the Kentucky Derby. This year’s entrant on the Arkansas road to Kentucky for Von Hemel lacks a bit of the juvenile success enjoyed by las year’s Southwest Stakes winner, but looks interesting nonetheless. A consistent late-runner in six lifetime starts, he hung just a bit in the rich Springboard Mile last time, but considering the wide trip, and the slow early fractions, it was a solid effort. I liked the way he kept coming late, despite the factors against him. Look for him to be running late in this one, and with better racing luck, may well be right in the picture. Will be Closing

2) Warrior’s Club (7-2) – As a Churchill Downs Racing Club runner, this son of Warrior’s Reward should have a large cheering section on Monday. Trained by the old master, D. Wayne Lukas, he has been a consistent performer, although only once a winner in seven lifetime starts. He’s finished in the money in his last six starts, but it is in his last two that point him out as a serious threat in here. He broke his maiden in the Spendthrift Stallion Stakes, defeating the multiple stakes winner, Cool Arrow, two starts back, and then came back to run a very credible third in the Kentucky Jockey Club. From that race, it would seem that Uncontested has more upside, but this tactical sophomore must be respected. Brings Experience to the Table

3) Cu Rahy (20-1) – A $120,000 yearling purchase, this son of Curlin is another coming straight out of the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. Unfortunately, he did little running that evening, finishing ninth of 12. He did have a few promising results before then, but not enough to be given much respect in the betting last time. Coming off that result, I would be a bit surprised if he makes a serious dent against these. Disappointing Springboard

5) Unbridled Eagle (20-1) – After breaking his maiden at Saratoga in his fourth lifetime start, this son of Mineshaft has not done anything in three subsequent starts, while bouncing back and forth between turf and dirt. A well-bred runner form the Asmussen barn merits respect, but only a real form reversal would put him in the picture. It’s Only Getting Tougher

7) Romeo O Romeo (20-1) – A real longshot in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he ran like it, finishing last. Before that, he had hit the board in three straight stakes races, so I wouldn't blame you for you considereing, but all of them came on synthetic surfaces. Another try against good horses on dirt does not inspire condfidence.  Might Prefer All-Weather

8) Love That Lute (20-1) – After a dull debut effort at Keeneland, this Jack Van Berg-trainee came right back with big improvement to go all the way in his second career start. The bad news is that victory came in a maiden claiming heat at Churchill Downs. He would need similar improvement to have any hope in this field. I do not fancy his chances. Stepping Way Up

And finally, let's fondly remember the namesake of this race. Here is Smarty Jones doing his thing in the 2004 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park ...