Sham Stakes 2017: Odds and Analysis

Saturday’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita kicks off the road to the 2017 Kentucky Derby in Southern California. Named after the famous Santa Anita Derby winner, and rival of the great Secretariat, the Sham Stakes has been won in recent years by such talented colts as; Colonel John, The Pamplemousse, and Goldencents. This year’s edition is sure to create some West Coast buzz for an up and coming youngster, as we dive headlong into the Derby Trail. Without further ado, and with 10 Kentucky Derby points on the line for the winner, let’s take a look at the field of seven, including my analysis and projected odds …

5) Gormley (3-2) – A Kentucky-bred son of Malibu Moon from the same connections that brought us the mighty Zenyatta, Gormley made a big splash last October 1 when he scored a wire-to-wire victory in the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes. Bringing an undefeated 2-for-2 record into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, he failed to do much as the third choice after bobbling at the break, and racing wide. A regular on the worktab since, trainer John Shirreffs likes the way he he’s moving with his older stablemate, Cool Samurai. He has the proven class and experience, and he certainly has found an easier sport than his last. For these reasons, he is The Top Pick

1) American Anthem (2-1) – A $435,000 purchase last March, Bob Baffert trains this one for the China Horse Club and WinStar Farm. This well thought about son of Bodemeister has only made one lifetime start for the four-time winner of the Kentucky Derby. In his debut, he was bet down to odds of 9-5 in a 12-horse field at Del Mar. Showing good tactical speed, he drifted in a bit during the stretch, before ultimately powering on by a loose on the lead runner late in 1:10.37 for the six furlongs. He has been working very well since that December 3 unveiling, and improvement is fully expected, as he makes his stakes debut and maiden voyage around two turns. The Main Rival

2) Term of Art (4-1) – Like Gormley, this son of Tiznow did not find much luck in the Classic Empire won Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing ninth after a rough start. Unlike Gormley, though, he has raced since, and that start earned him his first stakes score. He produced a solid rally that afternoon at Del Mar to edge away to victory in the Grade 3 Cecil B. DeMille Stakes. It should be noted that one was taken off the turf, and was run on a track labeled as good. He’s likely to find both a faster track and faster horses on Saturday. Proven at the distance, the winner of 2-of-5 lifetime will likely need a fast pace for a real chance to win the Sham. Running Late

4) Colonel Samsen (8-1) – The most experienced colt in the race, he has come alive like Peter Frampton in his last two, rallying to win both a Del Mar maiden, and the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields. The Sham Stakes will give him the opportunity to prove he can both run with this type of crowd, and be successful on dirt, as all six of his races to date have come either on grass or all-weather. I am skeptical of his overall chances in here, but a solid early pace, and affinity for dirt would give him at least a fighting chance. Makes Dirt Debut

3) Bird is the Word (20-1) – Still a maiden after five starts, the half-brother to the stakes placed Exchange Cat looks ambitiously placed in this one. Having said that, he did make a big step forward in his last with the subtraction of blinkers, finishing second after leading much of the stretch in a one-mile maiden race at Del Mar. He’ll need a similar jump forward to expect to take the top prize here. Last More Like It

7) Blabimir (15-1) – After being pulled up in his second career start, the son of Tapizar bounced right back to break his maiden in his third career start. That day at Los Alamitos, he pressed a fast pace before pulling clear to 1 ¼-length victory in 1:03.29. That show of speed makes me believe he will be a pace factor in here, but more than anything, he may set the table for the other O’Neill runner, Term of Art. Pace Factor

6) Big Hit (15-1) – Another who put things together in his third lifetime start, winning his third lifetime start in a maiden sprint at Del Mar. The well bred son of Super Saver was a $360,000 yearling purchase, but I'm afraid in this one he looks to be little more than a pace casuality as he attempts to stretch back out to a mile against horses that have already beaten him. More Speed to the Party