Separating Preakness Stakes 2018 contenders from pretenders

Nine days out from the 2018 Preakness Stakes, and we still have plenty of horses on the fence for the Triple Crown's middle jewel. After Thursday morning's gallop at Churchill Downs, though, when Justify showed no signs of soreness from a heel bruise, things could soon change for connections of those runners less than eager to run their horses against the unbeaten Kentucky Derby winner. With that in mind, I am listing each horse below as either 'Probable' or 'Possible' with the belief that many on the possible list will ultimately say "no thank you" once they know that Justify will indeed be running.

The Contenders

Justify - Probable - (Scat Daddy – B. Baffert - 4-4-0-0)

Before the Kentucky Derby, I thought he would need to be a special horse to win, and that's the adjective that best describes his performance on the first Saturday in May. He was fast enough to chase a blistering pace to secure optimal position early, and then racehorse enough to turn away his competition down the stretch. The heel condition after the race was cause for concern, but he looked good on the track Thursday. His mere presence in the Preakness starting gate will likely ensure a small field, and he'll need only to run a similar race to what he has been running all along to add the Middle Jewel to his quickly growing list of accomplishments.

Good Magic - Possible - (Curlin – C. Brown - 6-2-3-1) 

As expected, this consistent and talented son of a two-time Horse of the Year brought his best to Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, as well as he ran on Derby day, his best was not quite good enough when he asked Justify at the top of the stretch. My hope is that they decide to run the Derby runner-up, giving his trainer, Chad Brown, a chance at two straight wins in the Preakness. My guess, though, is that they do not make the trip to Baltimore. If he does run on May 19, he is the one horse who could make the Derby winner really work, especially if the pace is fast, and he is allowed to relax a bit more in the early stages.

The Pretenders

Lone Sailor - Possible - (Majestic Warrior – T. Amoss - 8-1-2-1) 

Another who is likely playing the waiting game to see how the Derby winner looks leading up to the Preakness, he might find a good race pace if he does run at Pimlico. There are plenty of horses who like to be near the pace early, which could set things up for a horse who likes to come from behind, like the Louisiana Derby runner-up. His race, when finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby was good, encountering some traffic, before making a sustained run down the stretch. In the field at Pimlico, he would be one of my top picks underneath the obvious choice.

Bolt d’Oro - Possible - (Medaglia d’Oro – M. Ruis - 7-4-1-1) 

As much as I hate to do it, I have to put the horse, who I believed was America's best juvenile, on the pretender side of things. He has had two straight chances to contend with Justify, and on very different racetracks, and different scenarios, and in neither did he look like he could really run with him. I do not see the Preakness being any different. Therefore, if they do decide to run May 19, I can only see him as a threat for second, not for the win. That is, assuming Justify is in the race.

Quip - Probable - (Distorted Humor - R. Brisset - 5-3-1-0)

I like the decision to skip the Kentucky Derby and wait for the middle jewel. His connections have a nice developing horse who will probably be better for the discretion, not to mention that they also own the Derby winner. As far as his chances in the Preakness, Quip makes a lot of sense as a horse who could hit the board. He showed good tactical speed in both the Tampa Bay and Arkansas derbies, and finished them off gamely. Still, with a similar running style to the top one, he may find himself in a bit too deep when the real running begins.

Telekinesis - Possible - (Ghostzapper – M. Casse - 3-1-1-1)

One of the more intriguing young sophomores in the nation, it will be interesting to see in which direction he goes. The Preakness would be an ultimate show of confidence for the narrow loser of the Lexington Stakes. As a Canadian-bred, he certainly would be one of the horses to beat in the prestigious Queen's Plate, and getting a simple prep up at Woodbine would make perfect sense. But if he can make another move forward after a big run at Keeneland, to just miss to My Boy Jack, he could make some noise if given the chance at Pimlico.

Tenfold - Probable - (Curlin - S. Asmussen - 3-2-0-0)

Like Telekinesis, this is another colt with plenty of potential. He was thrown into the fire early in his career, and despite a fifth-place result, I thought his Arkansas Derby performance was actually quite good. He's very well liked within his strong barn, and another move forward puts him in the mix with most of these. Having said that, like so many in here, a second-place finish behind Justify would seem to be the most realistic hope.

Bravazo - Probable - (Awesome Again – D.W. Lukas – 9-3-1-1)

One of two from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, who will be wheeling back in two weeks to try the Preakness, he ran a very solid race in the Derby to check in sixth. It was more like it, after a poor effort in the Louisiana Derby. With the good race under his belt, I can understand why his Hall of Fame trainer wants another shot, but expecting him to threaten Justify more this time would seem to be wishful thinking.

Sporting Chance - Probable - (Tiznow – D.W. Lukas – 7-2-1-1)

A Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, he has yet to really break through at 3. After an eventful stretch run in the Blue Grass, he ran just OK when fourth in a sloppy Pat Day Mile. I still think there is some talent there, but cannot expect him to make a big dent against this bunch.

Diamond King - Probable - (Quality Road – Jo. Servis – 6-4-0-1)

Winner of the local Federico Tesio, this Parx-based runner has proven a consistent performer both at 2 and 3. You could do worse in looking for a longshot to round out the exotics next Saturday. But for my money, he lacks the class to have any real chance to make it to the winner's circle in the Preakness.

Pony Up - Possible - (Quality Road – T. Pletcher – 7-1-4-1)

He is certainly a second-string option for trainer Todd Pletcher after running his A-team in the Kentucky Derby. A winner against only maidens so far, the good news is that he has become a consistent rallying type, and he comes in off a career best, when he came on late for third in the Lexington. I can't see him for the win, but maybe he picks up the pieces late to cash a check.

Givemeaminit - Possible - (Star Guitar – D. Stewart – 10-1-2-2)

The Louisiana-bred son of Star Guitar is the most experienced horse on the list. Third in the Pat Day Mile most recently, this one is hard to recommend. He is probably best suited for shorter distances than the 9 1/2 furlongs of the Preakness, and most certainly he does not want the level of competition he will find here.