Santa Anita Handicap 2017: An Early Look
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Photo:
Zoe Metz/Del Mar
Saturday, March 11 will mark the 80th running of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. The $750,000 feature carries a rich and celebrated history. Winners of past editions include some of the biggest names in American racing history, including; Seabiscuit, Noor, Round Table, Ack Ack, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry, and Alysheba. In recent years, Lava Man, Game On Dude, and Shared Belief are among those to have added their names to the impressive roll call of winners. With Arrogate headed to the Dubai World Cup, this year's Big Cap will be up for grabs for a group of older horses in search of what could be the biggest win of their career. Let's take an early look at the probables for the ten-furlong affair in order of preference ...
Midnight Storm - The winner of 10 of 21 lifetime races not only has the class to win the Big Cap, but as the prospective field stands now, he also is in possession of the controlling speed of the race. The six-year-old son of Pioneerof the Nile has never been better, having won five graded stakes in his last six outings. Perhaps best known for his prowess on the grass, he has proven that he can handle dirt just fine, as well, in his last two front-running scores for trainer Phil D'Amato. With that being said, the question of distance looms. The likely speed of the race has never won beyond nine-furlongs, and in his only previous try at 1 1/4-miles, he threw in the towel early in the 2015 Pacific Classic. Although, in fairness, that came after an early speed duel with Bayern.
Shaman Ghost - We know the ten-furlong distance will be no problem at all for this strapping son of Ghostzapper. The Jimmy Jerkens charge has already won big races at nine, ten, and twelve furlongs in his 14-race career. The five-year-old also comes in off of what may very well be his strongest performance to date, when he rallied strongly to be a clear second behind Arrogate in the $12 million Pegasus World Cup. He did not threaten the winner, but few would have that day. A similar performance puts him in with a big chance, with only the threat of a loose Midnight Storm presenting a challenge which could prove too much. Note, that he tried to make the same trip last fall in the Breeders' Cup Classic, but an illness prevented that attempt.
Isotherm - A turf-to-dirt angle worked last week for Girvin in the Risen Star Stakes, will it also be successful in the Big Cap? If you think the answer could be yes, this four-year-old son of Lonhro is my favorite option. Not only is the George Weaver-trainee still getting better, but he comes in off a strong ten-furlong win in the Grade 2 San Marcos. With his turf form looking good, it should be a question whether he can translate it to the main track. It's hard to tell, as his last dirt race came back in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he never threatened. Still, with his class and improving form, he might be worth a shot to pull the upset in here.
Imperative - The seven-year-old gelding that could, shows no signs of slowing down, in this, his sixth season on the racetrack. Like Shaman Ghost, he comes in off a big performance at Gulfstream Park on January 28. It did not come in the Pegasus, but still, he had no easy task for himself in overtaking the talented Stanford in deep stretch of the $400,000 Poseidon Handicap. The son of Bernardini does not win often, but that was clearly one of his best victories in a 36-race career. This will be his fourth consecutive year in his Big Cap, with last year's fourth-place finish behind Melatonin, being his best result.
Follow Me Crev - While he has never proven himself against graded stakes company, the five-year-old son of Quality Road looked to be on the right track this time last year, before a setback knocked him out of a chance at the 2016 Big Cap. He returned a few months later, but did not look like the same horse in two stakes attempts, before being put away again. In his only recent start, an allowance win on February 20, he once again displayed the kind of talent that we saw early in 2016. Perhaps this year, he will put it all together at the right time.
Hi Happy - Another who looks for Big Cap glory off of grass form, he finished only 2 1/2-lengths behind Isotherm in the San Marcos. While he is 0-for-2 here in America, he has excellent back class in his native Argentina, including a Group 1 victory going a route of ground on the dirt. If the last is an indication that he is rounding into form, he looms a very interesting longshot in a Big Cap field that is not overly daunting.
Hard Aces - The hard-hitting seven-year-old son of Hard Spun has been down this road before, often competing in California's biggest ten-furlong races. A former winner of the Grade 1 Gold Cup, he has run in the Big Cap twice before, finishing fourth in 2015, and second last year. On his best, there is no doubt that he is a threat in here, but recent form suggests that he is beginning to tail off. With 38 races on his past performances, and more than a million dollars earned, I wonder if his racing career has seen better days.
Twentytwentyvision - Also exiting the turfy San Marcos, this Richard Mandella-trained gelding disappointed by finishing seventh that day. He was beaten less than four-lengths, though, and that was the only time in his career that he has finished out of the money. Although he has made much of his hay on turf, he actually has a solid dirt record. He's hard to single out as one of the top picks, but in the hands of his Hall of Fame trainer, he stands at least a punter's chance.
Gangster - The least accomplished horse in the field, this lightly raced five-year-old comes in off a trio of sharp grass tries for trainer Doug O'Neill. Before that, his dirt form was spotty, but he does have a nice nine-furlong maiden win at Saratoga on his pp's back in 2015. Perhaps he is over any issues which kept him from racing more, and the way he finished his last race, a fast turf mile on February 4, at least gives hope in this one.
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