Sam F. Davis Stakes 2017: Analysis and Odds

Tampa Bay Downs kicks off their 2017 Kentucky Derby points series with Saturday’s running of the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. It’s the headliner of Festival Preview Day at the Oldsmar, Florida oval, and in all my years of following both the Derby trail, and Tampa Bay Downs, I have no hesitation in calling this the strongest field ever assembled for the Tampa Bay Derby prep. Run at 1 1/16 miles, with a purse of $250,000, and ten Kentucky Derby qualifying points available to the winner, the Sam F. Davis is clearly moving up in the world, but the overall class and depth of this field has come up even stronger than the good folks at Tampa Bay Downs likely even hoped for. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the field, including my analysis and projected odds …

8) McCraken (9-5) – As one of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby, this unbeaten son of Ghostzapper certainly deserves to go favored in here. He was perfect in three strong outings as a juvenile, and has been working like clockwork for trainer Ian Wilkes at the Palm Meadows Training Center in advance of his sophomore debut. He features a strong closing kick, which should do well at Tampa Bay Downs, and specifically in this race, with a decent amount of early speed lining up on Saturday. Having said all that, the Whitham homebred has never raced anywhere other than Churchill Downs, and he is coming off a 2 ½-month layoff. Plus, as alluded to in the opening, this is no easy spot for his seasonal debut. Still if he runs his race, he rates the obvious one to beat. Not Unbeatable

6) Wild Shot (5-1) – Looking back at McCraken’s last race, and his biggest win, it was this son of Trappe Shot, who was battling with him for much of the stretch. Sure, McCraken ultimately edged away in the Kentucky Jockey Club, but Wild Shot ran very well in finishing a clear second, while ahead of some good horses. Trained by Rusty Arnold, this Calumet Farm homebred has only won once in four lifetime starts, but he improved each time, ran well at three different tracks, and faced the big boys in his last two. With good early speed, it will be McCraken that needs to come and get him again, and as we saw last time, that is not the easiest of tasks. Dangerous Front-runner

3) Fact Finding (4-1) – Another with the ability to press the pace early, this Todd Pletcher-trainee is also perfect in three lifetime starts. The half-million dollar plus, two-year-old in training sale purchase has won races at Saratoga, Keeneland, and Gulfstream Park at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile, and has looked good doing it. How good is the son of The Factor? We will have to wait until Saturday for a more definitive answer, as he has yet to face anything like he will see at Tampa Bay Downs. He certainly rates a shot to fit in with the big boys, but until he does it, I am holding a wait and see approach with the colt who I saw in person in his first two outings. Could be This Good

9) No Dozing (5-1) – It was hard for me to list this good-looking son of Union Rags all the way down in the fourth spot, but I believe strictly as far as chances to win this race, that is where he belongs. Having said that, he certainly fits in with the top horses in here, and it would be no surprise at all to see him in the winner’s circle. Unlike a few in here, though, I see this more as a building block for him. He lacks the early speed of the two just above him, and possibly the turn of foot of McCraken. Still, under the care of trainer Arnaud Delacour, I expect him to only get better with time, and as distances increase. As long as he finishes well, as he did in all his juvenile starts, it should move him forward towards Louisville. Should be Running Late

7) Tapwrit (6-1) – This regally bred son of Tapit has plenty in common with Fact Finding. Both are trained by Todd Pletcher, both have three lifetime starts, and both won their stakes debuts while going a flat mile on December 10 at Gulfstream Park, in their most recent starts. Tapwrit’s win in the Pulpit Stakes was originally scheduled for the turf, and probably featured lesser competition. It was also .67 seconds slower than that of Fact Finding. Still, the sharp middle move to win was another nice move forward for the colt who was purchased for $1.2 million as a yearling. As of today, I like Fact Finding a little better, but this one may still have big upside that we could see as soon as Saturday. On the Improve

1) State of Honor (10-1) –A Canadian-bred from the barn of Mark Casse, State of Honor ran a solid race in his dirt debut last time at Gulfstream Park. Relatively experienced, the son of To Honor And Serve ran his first six races, with mixed results, at Woodbine. His narrow miss in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on January 7 points out that he can handle the dirt, and has the class to compete in here. He also comes in off a sharp :47 flat workout. This is tougher than the last one, but he is hard to dismiss. Solid in Dirt Debut

2) King and His Court (15-1) – Another Casse-trained, Ontario-bred, this son of Court Vision ran nine times as a juvenile. He also developed into one of Canada’s best two-year-olds, finishing his year with wins in the Coronation Futurity and Display Stakes. Like State of Honor last time, he needs to prove that he can handle the dirt, and run fast enough to compete with American stakes company. He obviously has some ability, but this seems like a tough spot to answer those questions. Canadian Stakes Winner

4) Chance of Luck (20-1) – A local runner from the barn of Gerald Bennett, he has finished first or second in a pair of stakes races at Tampa Bay Downs, after having won his debut against claimers at Laurel Park. Most recently he was game as the beaten favorite in the Pasco Stakes. Solid local form, but the competition seems to be much, much tougher for this one. Stepping Up

5) Six Gun Salute (50-1) – With only a maiden victory at Hawthorne from four starts, this son of Colonel John finished fifth of seven in the local Pasco Stakes most recently. I cannot see him being a factor in this one at all. Impossible to Recommend