Risen Star Full Field Analysis

The trail to the 2015 Kentucky Derby will have a busy weekend with the Fountain of Youth, the rescheduled Southwest Stakes, and the Grade 2 Risen Star kicking off the Kentucky Derby Championship Series. In honor of Fat Tuesday, let’s focus on New Orleans tonight. Ten three-year-olds will travel 8 ½ furlongs over the main track at Fair Grounds, with the winner securing 50 all-important points toward entry into the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Here’s my rundown of the field from the rail out ...

1. St. Joe Bay - The son of Saint Anddan makes the trip to Louisiana from Southern California for trainer Peter Miller. He shows consistent good early speed, and has faced some good horses, but has yet to find the winner’s circle, other than a romping win in a maiden claiming event five starts back. He could get brave on the lead from the rail on Saturday, but I am leaning elsewhere for the win.

2. Tiznow R J - The improving son of Tiznow has steadily moved forward in four career starts for trainer Steve Asmussen. Most recently he ran a sneaky good race while finishing third in the Lecomte. He pressed the pace all the way around and was game in the late stages. Further improvement is reasonable to expect, and that could easily make him a legitimate threat to win this.

3. Bluff - After not showing much in his first two starts for the familiar team of Fox Hill Farms and Larry Jones, this chestnut son of Tapit rebounded in a big way with a dominant win against maidens at Fair Grounds last time. That performance is enough for me to believe that he has a nice future ahead of him, but this deep Risen Star field might be a little too much, too soon, for him to handle at this stage.

4. J S Bach - This one could be the wildcard of the bunch. The Florida-bred ran a promising second while sprinting for trainer Todd Pletcher in his only juvenile start, before dismantling a maiden field at Gulfstream Park in his second start. There wasn’t much of a pace in that 1 1/16 race, so it really is hard to tell just how good the 8 ½ length romp really was, but at the very least, he is a threat on Saturday.

5. Imperia - There’s a lot to like for this regally bred Godolphin runner. Already a graded stakes winner on the grass, he transitioned to dirt after a nightmarish trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and ran a big race to just miss in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs to close his juvenile season. The class is definitely there, but he might be the type to need a tightener to start the season before he really starts rolling. Having said that, he is still one to fear in here.

6. War Story - I fell in love with this gelded son of Northern Afleet after seeing him in the Lecomte. It was actually his first career defeat in three starts, but I loved the sustained run he made after getting off to a poor start. He could not hold off International Start late that afternoon, but I think the experience will do him a world of good. War Story is my top pick.

7. Hero of Humor - Well, Dorochenko has shocked the world at Fair Grounds before, but this one just hasn’t looked good enough in his three stakes appearances previously. Pass.

8. Keen Ice - I have become a huge fan of Curlin as a sire, so I have been following this one with interest since he made a nice late run to break his maiden in September. While I do see improvement in his future, and I do look forward to seeing him run at classic distances, my feeling is that he is not ready to pick up all the pieces in this one. There are too many more precocious horses in here to expect more than a minor share.

9. Big Big Easy - He has the perfect name to win a big race at Fair Grounds. Unfortunately, he just does not appear good enough to beat the quality of horses he will be facing on Saturday.

10. International Star - He beat my top pick last time with a strong late burst to zoom to the win in the Lecomte. He’s also the most experienced horse in the race, having run in six straight stakes races after breaking his maiden in his first start. A similar performance to his last run puts him right in the thick of this, and there isn’t really any reason to believe the son of Fusaichi Pegasus can’t repeat that good effort. A big threat to win another one.