Red Smith & Discovery Stakes Daily Double Picks

Breeders’ Cup 2016 has come and gone. While it’s a long wait until the next championships, scheduled for Del Mar, there is plenty of good racing to keep us busy and entertained in the meantime. Speaking of that … A nice little program of racing has been carded for Saturday at Aqueduct, highlighted by back-to-back graded stakes races in the Red Smith Handicap and the Discovery Stakes. Both have come up with good sized fields and are of at least grade 3 quality. With that in mind let’s take a look at each, and hit the Daily Double while we’re at it …

Race 7 - Red Smith Handicap (Grade 3) – 1 3/8 miles on the Turf

The Chad Brown-trained import, Wake Forest has run in five consecutive Grade 1 races, and six of seven since arriving from Germany in the summer of 2015. The confirmed late-runner has only connected once, but it came in a good spot when he powered home to win the Grade 1 Man O’ War this spring at the same 11-furlong distance that he will find on Saturday. With enough early speed in here, and his excellent recent form in the last two in Canada, he looks like strictly the one to beat with Javier Castellano in the irons. As the likely favorite, though, and considering his 1-for-7 record stateside, I would not talk anyone off taking a shot to beat him.

Danish Dynaformer and Messi, both with proven class, and ability at the distance, might be the most likely upsetters, but both Bigger Picture and Arties Silver Mine interest me with some odds. The former has been ultra-consistent this year, and his last two at a distance are very sharp. He may well be another one of those Mike Maker claims to make good. The latter should be a longshot, but really looks to be coming into his own now as a four-year-old gelding for trainer Reade Baker. This is a big step up in class, but his last was impressive enough where I think he can run with these. 

Race 8 - Discovery Stakes (Grade 3) – 1 1/8 miles on the Dirt

I actually think this little November race at the Big A could feature some big players in the handicap division in 2017. Namely I could see any of three; Gift Box, Governor Malibu, or the newcomer Hot Seat, becoming Grade 1 winners next year. Happily, this is also far from a three horse, with every entrant in the eleven-horse field having at least one quality going in which to appreciate. Gift Box has always been well thought of, and is still lightly raced. He could not break through in a pair of stakes at Saratoga, but this looks like a solid spot for the talented son of Twirling Candy to earn his initial stakes victory. Governor Malibu has been close in several big races this year, and must be respected. I throw out his last in which he was way too far back in the slop. A rider switch to Joe Bravo could be the tonic he needs. Meanwhile, Hot Seat gets his acid test after two scintillating scores against much cheaper at Parx. The times of those races make me think he is the real deal.

Of the rest, there are several to fear, but I am going to look for some odds with Sticksstatelydude and Neolithic. The former has always looked the part of a talent, without busting out. Now in the Kiaran McLaughlin barn, he is working great, and might be finally ready to win a graded stakes race. Neolithic is more of a swing at the fences, but I like his last race a lot, and his first try at both nine furlongs, and with blinkers, could allow for him to put it all together.

The Play

$20 Daily Double – Wake Forest / Gift Box

$15 Daily Double – Wake Forest / Governor Malibu, Hot Seat

$6 Daily Double – Wake Forest / Sticksstatelydude, Neolithic

$5 Daily Double – Danish Dynaformer, Bigger Picture / Gift Box, Hot Seat, Governor Malibu

$4 Daily Double – Arties Silver Mine / Gift Box, Hot Seat, Governor Malibu

$3 Daily Double – Danish Dynaformer, Bigger Picture / Sticksstatelydude, Neolithic

$2 Daily Double – Arties Silver Mine / Sticksstatelydude, Neolithic

Total = $120