See rankings of all the 2024 Kentucky Derby long shots

Rich Strike. Country House. Mine That Bird. Giacomo. I’ll Have Another. Mage. Betting on long shots to win the Kentucky Derby has been a lucrative proposition over the last couple of decades. Even in years when one of the favorites has won on the first Saturday in May, there almost always have been big prices running well enough to seriously spice up the exotics.

With that in mind, here are my rankings of every long shot in the 2024 edition of the Kentucky Derby. Only Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom, Forever Young and Just a Touch, all 10-1 or less, are off limits.

1. Honor Marie 20-1. My top-ranked long shot in this year’s Derby looks to be coming up to the big race in the right way. After finishing with interest in a sloppy and loaded edition of the Risen Star, the Honor Code colt came right back to run a very solid second behind Catching Freedom in the Grade 2, 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. Back at his home base of Churchill Downs, where he is a graded-stakes winner, he should be ready for his best. A solid early pace, which seems likely, should see him finishing fast.

2. Mystik Dan 20-1. I am looking for big odds on this talented son of Goldencents in the Kentucky Derby. He owns the second highest Beyer Speed Figure as both a 2-year-old and as a 3-year-old, each time behind Fierceness. One of those efforts came in a Churchill Downs maiden, and the other came in a romp over Just Steel in the Southwest Stakes (G3). Bothered quite a bit early when third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), I look for a bounce-back effort here. Taught to relax early, his turn of foot could put him right there as they turn for home.

3. Resilience 20-1. It looks like Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott might be developing another good one in this son of Into Mischief. Notoriously patient with his horses, this winner of the Wood Memorial (G2) is getting better with every start. He also faced top competition and was competitive in the start before the Wood. I don’t think he beat much at Aqueduct, but another step forward could put him right in the mix on Saturday.

4. Domestic Product 30-1. The “other” Chad Brown entrant after Sierra Leone is an intriguing long shot in the Derby. He has seen very slow paces in both starts this year but still has been able to finish strong. I am not sure he is up to tackling a deep field like this going 10 furlongs, but with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle and at very attractive odds, I am willing to include him underneath. He has looked good in the mornings at Churchill Downs.

5. Stronghold 20-1. It’s hard to argue with the two races he has run in 2024. The son of Ghostzapper has looked good in winning graded stakes in New Mexico and California. He is tactical and game. The only reason the Phil D’Amato-trained runner is not higher on this list is the relative weakness of the fields he has faced. Still, I cannot dismiss him from a strong performance on Saturday.

6. Track Phantom 20-1. As much as I like this speedy son of Quality Road overall, this seems like a very difficult spot. Unable to hold the lead in either of his last two starts, he now must deal with more distance and the likes of Fierceness on the Kentucky Derby pace. Perhaps if the morning-line favorite breaks poorly, he could make some noise. Having said that, I will look forward to betting him in races again after the Kentucky Derby.

7. Dornoch 20-1. A full brother to last year’s winner Mage, Dornoch was a top contender to begin 2024. His two races this year, a win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a fourth-place run in the Blue Grass (G1) left plenty to be desired. Can the son of Good Magic bounce back with much better on Saturday? It’s certainly possible, but breaking from the rail on Saturday, he will not be on my tickets.

8. Endlessly 30-1. A true wildcard in the deck, this son of Oscar Performance has been dominant in his two starts this year. The elephant in the room, however, is that he never has run a race on the dirt. What is he going to do when he gets dirt kicked in his face for the first time? That’s too big a question mark for me, but on the other hand, I would not be shocked if he runs well again.

9. Just Steel 20-1. I have seen many jump on the Coach Lukas bandwagon with this Justify colt in recent weeks, but I have not. His last-out effort to be second behind Muth in the Arkansas Derby was certainly solid, but the truth is he has not scared the winner in any of his four starts this year. I also see far more upside to the horses listed above him. With 11 starts already under his belt, I am not expecting another big step forward.

10. Epic Ride 30-1. This son of Blame has not run a bad race in five career starts. The first four came on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park, with a third-place effort in the Blue Grass as his only main-track experience. He could move forward off the effort, but it still likely will not be enough for the late edition to the field.

11. Society Man 50-1. A huge long shot in the Wood Memorial, this Danny Gargan-trained runner outran his odds with a solid second-place effort behind Resilience. The Good Magic gelding likely would need a similar big move forward to even hope for a similar result in the run for the roses.

12. West Saratoga 50-1. It’s a nice story for trainer Larry Demeritte just making the Kentucky Derby with this son of Exaggerator, and he is a stakes winner at Churchill Downs. Unfortunately, his last four attempts in stakes company have revealed him as a full cut below the best in here.

13. T O Password 30-1. A bit of an unknown coming from Japan, I have a difficult time believing that the undefeated runner will be prepared for all the demands of the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby in only his third lifetime start.

14. Catalytic 30-1. After two decent efforts sprinting to begin his career, this Catalina Cruiser colt was thrown into the deep end of the pool. He did finish second, although way behind Fierceness, in the Florida Derby (G1), but things will only get that much tougher on Saturday.

15. Grand Mo the First 50-1. Third in all four stakes tries, including a distant one behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby, I don’t expect this son of Uncle Mo to appreciate the added distance of the Kentucky Derby.