Zipse: Raise Cain is the pace play in the Malibu Stakes
Give me a fast and contentious pace in a seven-furlong race and I am a happy handicapper. It’s been one of my best betting angles over the years.
Going all out for that distance is tough enough, but when you have other horses breathing down your neck the whole way it’s a perfect recipe for a pace collapse. The angle does not always connect, of course, but it’s one I’ve used to much success over the years.
The Grade 1 Malibu Stakes on Tuesday’s opening day at Santa Anita looks like just such a race, and the confirmed stretch runner Raise Cain appears to be an ideal candidate to take advantage.
The son of Violence should offer excellent value in the eight-horse field. I expect Raise Cain to be bet less than each of the Bob Baffert-trained triumvirate of Speed Boat Beach, Fort Bragg and Hejazi. As no better than the fourth choice, his odds will be attractive on Tuesday.
The Baffert trio all are talented, but Raise Cain fits with them. Trained by Ben Colebrook, the bay colt has the class to win the Malibu. Since breaking his maiden at Keeneland in his second career start, he has run in 11 straight stakes races and banked nearly $600,000.
Going into the Malibu, Raise Cain has run in nine stakes races in 2023. Seven of those nine came in races around two turns, and although he has run well in many, he has not won any of them. In his only one-turn attempts so far this year, he is perfect in two starts.
In the Gotham (G3) in March, he romped home at odds of 23-1. Most recently he ground out the win in the Perryville Stakes at Keeneland at odds of 6-1. The one turn of Tuesday’s test should suit him perfectly.
The Malibu will be his first start at Santa Anita, but the graded-stakes winner is quite accustomed to new track. This will be his 10th track to visit in his last 11 starts. If he gets the pace setup, as I expect he will, then he should come running.
Look for this pace to be especially fast. All three of Baffert’s runners have good speed. Led by Speed Boat Beach, they all should be forwardly paced. I absolutely love a race where all the favorites are speed.
Having all three from the same barn worries me a bit, but that concern is neutralized by the other speed in the race.
Three-time stakes winner Damon’s Mound is quality speed. He is one of the fastest 3-year-olds in the land and will be part of the pace.
Throw in recent maiden winner Matanzas Creek, who just won in 1:09 flat while blazing on the front, and you have all the makings of exactly the kind of pace I want to see.
With the master Frankie Dettori in the saddle on Tuesday, I fully expect Raise Cain to relax early and come flying home off fast early fractions.
I will play him both on top and underneath in the Malibu, but I like his chances to run by them all in the Santa Anita stretch. In this race, pace should make the race.