Queen's Plate 2017: Odds and Analysis

When it comes to history, North America generally falls way short. A work in progress, racing fans can enjoy a little taste of lasting history this weekend in Suburban Toronto. Sunday will mark the 158th running of The Queen's Plate, the longest continuously run stakes race of the continent. Contested at Woodbine Racetrack, the ten furlong test over the track's Tapeta racing surface is the first, and most prestigious jewel in Canada’s Triple Crown.

Followed each year by the Prince of Wales, on the dirt at Fort Erie, and the Breeders’ Stakes, back at Woodbine, but on the turf, this year's edition of the historic Queen's Plate has attracted an eclectic group of 13 all hoping to claim the crown as Canada's best three-year-old. Let's take a look at the field in order of my preference ...

12) Tiz A Slam (10-1) - No horseman knows how to get his charge ready for the Queen's Plate quite like Roger Attfield. The winner of eight previous editions has a wonderful chance to make it nine with this strapping son of Tiznow. A three-time winner at two, he has been right there in three stakes races this year, although yet to find the winner circle in 2017. That's okay, because this is the one he has been pointed for. Lacking clear running room in the Plate Trial, he looked the part of a horse looking for added ground. He'll get it on Sunday, and that should make all the difference. The Upset Winner

1) Channel Maker (4-1) - This Bill Mott-trainee ran into a bit of buzzsaw last time when second to Souper Tapit in the Marine Stakes. While that one is back in the States, this son of English Channel looks primed to run a big race in the Queen's Plate. With oodles of quality turf experience, he has proven class, and should love the distance. We now know that he can handle the Tapeta, and as a son of English Channel, you have to believe the trip will only make him more dangerous. I am going with an upset on top, but this is the horse they will all likely have to beat. The One to Beat

3) Holy Helena (3-1) - The morning line favorite exploded into potential Canadian-bred stardom with a strong rally down the stretch of the Woodbine Oaks. One of two fillies in this field, she ran several lengths faster than the males did in the Plate Trial that same day. Trained by Jimmy Jerkens, she is certainly a threat to live up to her billing, in what will be only her fourth lifetime start. The attractive daughter of Ghostzapper will have plenty of more competition than she did in the Oaks this time around, though. She might have more potential than anyone in this field, but as the favorite, I think she is vulnerable against the males who have been pointed for this all along. Very Talented Female

2) Guy Caballero (10-1) - This gelded son of Quality Road became a serious Queen's Plate threat in the time it took him to travel from last to first in the recent Plate Trial Stakes. The impressive middle of the track rally for trainer Catherine Day Phillips was an upset, but also a payoff on flashes of talent in his previous five races. A strong early pace, with tired horses running farther than ever before, improves his chances on Sunday. It only gets tougher here, but off the last, he is certainly a real threat to do it again, this time in the big one. Beware the Late Run

6) King and His Court (5-1) - The Champion Juvenile of Canadian Racing last year proved not up to the challenge in two stakes races in the U.S. to begin 2017, but once back to the friendly confines of Woodbine, he produced two fine efforts to win the Wando and run second in the Plate Trial. In the latter, he got the trip, but could not hold off the late charge of Guy Caballero. My guess is that will prove telling on Sunday, as he runs another solid race, but not well enough to beat them all. Sovereign Award Winner

5) Inflexibility (10-1) - The second filly in the field, this Chad Brown charge ran into traffic last time while finishing third in the Woodbine Oaks. That was also only her third lifetime start, as well, so improvement should be expected. Still, she was well beaten by Holy Helena that day, and while the addition of Javier Castellano helps, this one may not be up to the Cloud Computing kind of magic we saw from her Eclipse Award winning trainer in the Preakness. Had an Excuse in the Oaks

8) Malibu Secret (20-1) - The Sam-Som Farm runner encountered some trouble when a well-beaten third behind Souper Tapit and Channel Maker in the Marine, in what was only his third lifetime start. By Malibu Moon, out of a Dynaformer mare, both that experience, and the added distance should do him a world of good. Obviously he will need to improve to win this for trainer Malcom Pierce, but there is good reason to expect more in his third start of the year. Upset Potential

11) Aurora Way (6-1) - There is no doubt that the son of Giant's Causeway has some real talent. It was there to see when winning his career debut impressively on June 10. Having said that, it takes a very special horse to win the ten-furlong Queen's Plate off of only one career race. It's not out of the question, but I am willing to take a stand against the colt, who is sure to get some play at the windows, undertaking such a big jump. Only One Race In

7) State of Honor (8-1) - Well known to American racefans, this Mark Casse-trained runner has tried to carry his speed in seven consecutive stakes races, and in nine total. He has not won any of them yet. While true, he's run some very game races, it would seem that his best running has been done on dirt. Add in all the tough races he's already had this year, and I'm afraid he might amount to nothing more than a pacemaker in here. Tough Campaign Already

9) Megagray (30-1) - A nice winner of his second and final start as a juvenile, this son of Langfuhr has tried stakes company in his only two starts so far at three, with a third and fourth being the results. Last time, he never looked a threat to the top two in the Marine. The gray colt is eligible to move forward in his third start off the layoff, but it's hard to see him making up enough to come home a Queen's Plate winner. No Match in Marine 

13) Watch Me Strut (30-1) - The second from the barn of Catherine Day Phillips, this gelding has won three-of-five lifetime, but has yet to try stakes company. In his last, he rallied strongly late to win an 8 1/2-furlong allowance race. This will be a step up, but he's not without hope. Stepping Up

10) Vaughan (50-1) - The son of City Zip only made his career debut on June 4, when he finished seventh against maidens. He followed that up two weeks later with a well-beaten third in another event for non-winners. This ask, another two weeks later, seems more than ambitious. Overmatched

4) Spirit of Caledon (50-1) - After five losses to begin his career, this one had to drop into maiden claiming to earn his first win. In his first and only try against allowance company, Watch Me Strut ran right by him late. Not Good Enough