Preakness 2017: Pace Will Make This Race

When Royal Mo was injured in his final workout for Preakness 2017, it was extremely disappointing news for a horse that I believed to have a big future. Although he will never be able to race again, early reports for his recovery are very promising. I wish his team of Jerry and Ann Moss, and John Shirreffs all the best in this difficult time. As far as what his loss means to the big race on Saturday, I believe his absence will mean plenty.

Whether or not you believed that Royal Mo was sitting on a big race, or not, one thing that could not be argued is that the Robert B. Lewis winner would have added speed to the race. And as it stands right now, the Preakness is a race that could use some early speed.

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Of the eleven horses currently believed to be headed to the Preakness starting gate on Saturday, only two of them could be classified as speed types. One of them just so happens to be the smashing winner of the Kentucky Derby, Always Dreaming. The other is the Sunland Park based Conquest Mo Money. Neither of them are need the lead types either, further increasing the likelihood of a very moderate early pace.

Save last year's late running win by Exaggerator, and the Preakness is already a race that plays very kindly to horses on, or near, the early lead. Now with so little early pace going in, you would have to think that being out on the lead in this edition of the Middle Jewel is prime real estate. Furthermore, a large percentage of the expected field has little or no early run at all.

I would place Gunnevera, Lookin At Lee, Hence, Mulitplier, Senior Investment, Lancaster Bomber, and Term of Art all in the late runner category, with Multiplier and Lancaster Bomber being the most likely to take up the early running enough to land in the middle of the pack.

With seven of the eleven likely to have no interest whatsoever in the early pace, that leaves only two horses with enough early speed to be in a stalking position through the first half of the Preakness. Those two being Classic Empire and Cloud Computing. While neither have ever been on the early lead in any of their races, they both have shown enough early foot to sit third and fourth early on Saturday.

Considering the track at Pimlico, the history of the Preakness, and the lack of early speed present in this field, it would seem that Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money have a clear pace advantage. Provided they don't go head-to-head, and tooth-and-nail early, they should each have plenty left in the tank when the field turns for home.

Behind them, only Classic Empire and Cloud Computing appear to be in with a true fighting chance by getting first run at the leaders. Classic Empire ran this type of race while winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, and is certainly capable of stalking and pouncing on the top two, while Cloud Computing will have to improve upon his good, forwardly-placed effort in the Gotham to take advantage of the race set-up.

As for the trailing seven, there are some very good horses in the bunch, but from a pace perspective, I believe they are likely to be at a distinct disadvantage this time around.