Preakness 2017: Odds and Analysis

When handicapping Preakness Stakes 2017, it's important to not get too hung up on what happened in the Kentucky Derby two weeks before. If you do, you may quickly come to the conclusion that Always Dreaming is all but unbeatable on Saturday. He certainly could win again, but as a heavy favorite, I believe all the differing variables we will see from one race to the next are enough for me to take a chance to beat him. Four days from the Middle Jewel, here is how I see the field, in order of my preference, including analysis and projected odds ...

5) Classic Empire  (5-2)  Mark Casse / Julien Leparoux

After a hurried road to the Kentucky Derby, the Juvenile Champion of 2016 ran a big race in Louisville, overcoming a bad trip to finish fourth. With two good races now under his belt, the talented son of Pioneerof The Nile should be ready to fire his absolute best shot in the Preakness. With little early pace in this one, look for him to use his good natural speed to sit in a garden spot stalking trip just behind the Kentucky Derby winner. That will give him every opportunity to remind the world just how classy he really is when the real running begins. If he can get by the top two, I would suspect the race is his. A repeat exacta of the Arkansas Derby may well be in the cards. The Old Baltimore Bounce Back 

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10) Conquest Mo Money (12-1)  Miguel Hernandez / Jorge Carreno

I thought he would run a big Arkansas Derby, and he did. Once again, I am expecting big things from the unheralded New York-bred. As one of only two true speed horses in the field, look for the confident rider John Velazquez to sit behind this one early in anticipation of getting to him on the far turn. That may prove easier said than done, as this one is all racehorse. The longer he is on the lead, the more dangerous he will become, as Always Dreaming braces for the challenge of Classic Empire. Can Conquest Mo Money go all the way? Yes, he can, but second-place is more likely.  Runs Bang-Up Again

4) Always Dreaming  (1-1)  Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez

If there was any doubt as to whether the impressive winner of the Florida Derby was for real, it was put to bed in the final quarter mile of the Run for the Roses. Clearly he is one of the best of his generation, and certainly capable of adding another classic to his mantle. Having said that, I think Saturday's race is going to be a tougher test for him. Now he is the horse everyone else in the race will be trying to beat, and it will be a very tactical affair. I believe he sits second early ready to pounce on the turn, but the combination of a gritty early leader, and a champion breathing down his neck may prove to be the favorite's undoing. The One to Beat

6) Gunnevera  (10-1)  Antonio Sano / Mike Smith

Much has been said about the smashing winner of the Fountain of Youth peaking too soon this year. I'm not buying that argument. Rather, I believe, when you have a closer like this, you need the race set-up to be right, in order for him to perform at his very best. The Derby proved difficult, as he swung way out to the worst part of the track, and was unable to sustain his rally. I'm not sure he gets the right set-up here either, but if the three listed ahead of him decide to go a little too fast early, I believe him to be the most talented of the closers, and capable of running a big one. Might Need More Pace

2) Cloud Computing  (20-1)  Chad Brown / Javier Castellano

This one was asked to do an awful lot in his career with very little seasoning. All in all, he did not perform badly, but not quite well enough to count him among the crop's elite. That could change on Saturday with a big performance. His Gotham, in which he chased a tough early pace and stayed on well to be second, was a strong race considering he only had a maiden sprint as experience. Breaking a bit slow in the Wood killed his chances, but he showed some class to get third. Much like Classic Empire, he should sit a good stalking trip, and have every chance to show off his talent. Lightly Raced Colt Could Sit Good Trip

3) Hence  (20-1)  Steve Asmussen / Florent Geroux

This is a horse that I believe is better than what we saw in Louisville. His trip was poor, and he could only manage a middle of the pack finish. I would suspect that he is likely to have a much better trip at Pimlico, and sometimes it's smart just to draw a line through some horses results in the Derby congestion. Having said that, I only have him listed in the middle of the pack here, so clearly there is a lot yet to prove. He will make it on to my tickets just a little bit as a longshot capable of getting a piece. Better Than Derby Suggests

1) Multiplier  (20-1)  Brendan Walsh / Joel Rosario

If you love looking at final times, this one's Illinois Derby has you licking your chops heading into the Preakness. It was a strong performance coming out of a maiden win, but on the other hand, the level of competition was very far removed from what he will find in the middle leg of the Triple Crown. He's on the improve for trainer, Brendan Walsh, but I just have the feeling that this will prove a little too much, too soon for the son of The Factor. Improving Colt Faces Stiff Test

9) Lookin At Lee  (12-1)  Steve Asmussen / Corey Lanerie

My top longshot in the Kentucky Derby certainly did his part at Churchill Downs, picking off horses on a good rail, under Corey Lanerie, to easily nab second place money. Unfortunately, I do not see the same kind of race unfolding at Pimlico. It's not a track, or a race, that plays as kindly to the one-run types, and I think he was a horse built to pick up the pieces in a race like the Derby. This time, he is a toss for me. Does Not Set-Up as Well This Time

8) Senior Investment  (30-1)  Kenny McPeek / Channing Hill

He seems to be a bit of an in-and-outer, having finished out of the money in half of his lifetime starts. When he is good, he unleashes a potent late run to pick up his competition in the stretch. He was able to run them down in the Lexington Stakes last time in thrilling fashion, but I do not rate that as a strong edition of the Keeneland race. I like other closers better. Would Need a Career Best to Compete

7) Term Of Art (50-1) Doug O'Neill / Jose Ortiz

In a field full of late runners, this one would seem to have the least to like. His seventh-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby last time seems to underscore his indifference for top competition. I simply cannot see him doing much in here. Hard to Recommend