Point/Counterpoint: Breeders’ Cup Classic 3yo vs. Older
In looking forward to one the most anticipated editions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the history of the race, one of the overriding handicapping themes will be -- Who is better, the three-year-olds, or the older horses? This point of discussion has the potential can bring even the best of friends to words. See for yourself, as my HorseCenter co-host, Matt Shifman, and I go toe to toe on this very point in our latest Point/Counterpoint article.
Brian - Despite the upset in the Travers, American Pharoah has been America’s best horse in 2015. Of that, there should be no doubt. Happily, the first Triple Crown winner in 37 years was a very deserving one. He has won all his races with a style and class that speaks volumes about his overall quality. In his lone blemish in the past year plus, I thought he ran a big race to come so close to winning, on a track conducive to his upset. Keeneland, in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, should provide a friendlier host for America’s champ to demonstrate what he is truly made of, and I think we are going to like what I see. I still remember the show that Secretariat put on in the Marlboro Cup, after a tough upset at Saratoga. I’m not saying that he is Secretariat, but I do believe that American Pharoah is one of the most special horses we’ve seen in quite some time.
Matt – Brian, I feel like our racing world has gone topsy-turvy. I thought I was the American Pharoah devotee amongst the two of us. Yes, I was the one who picked the Zayat Stables runner to win every one of his races in 2015, while you were trying to beat him in most of those races. It is to your credit that you did come around and recognize how lucky we all were to see this horse win the Triple Crown as part of a tremendous three-year-old campaign. Now that we have heard how really tired Pharoah was from this campaign it is easy to excuse the loss in the Travers. However, hearing Bob Baffert talk about the Triple Crown winner’s weight loss and how much time it took him to be ready to train seriously again gives me two big reasons to wonder whether he will be back to 100% for the Classic. I don’t care who you are and how good you are, a horse doesn’t win the Classic unless he is in absolutely top form.
Brian - While I see plenty of quality in this year’s older horse crew for the Classic, I also see plenty of question marks. Beholder has never won outside of California. Can we expect her first win elsewhere to come in by far her toughest assignment to date? You can understand my skepticism. Similarly, Tonalist is extra tough at Belmont Park, but away from those friendly confines, he has never won an important race. You could make a point that Honor Code has an even bigger hurdle to jump, in that he has never even run at the ten furlong distance before. A solid rallier to be sure, he also needs things to break his way for him to fire his best, and I’m not sure 1 ¼ miles will be the answer. Clearly the best of this year’s older horses have big questions to answer, and with the recent decision by the connections of Liam’s Map, that he will be pointed to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile over the Mile, the cast of older horses became one quality horse less in number.
Matt – I know, my HorseCenter friend, that even the greatest California mare lost in the Classic when she left California, but Beholder has a different running style than Zenyatta that will allow Gary Stevens to keep her in contention throughout the race. I would have loved to have been the proverbial fly on the wall when Stevens and Beholder’s trainer Richard Mandella heard that Liam’s Map had opted for the Dirt Mile. Beholder is in the best form of her amazing career and importantly she has calmed down and now as a five-year-old seems ready to handle the trip to Kentucky.Tonalist and Honor Code are going to offer tremendous value in the Classic with both likely to be more than 10-1. On their best day both of these Older Males can easily win the Classic. There is little question that Honor Code will get enough pace to set up that powerful closing kick that we saw in the Met Mile and the Whitney. Tonalist will probably sit fairly close to the leaders, which will be an ideal spot in the Classic.
Brian - Keen Ice comes into the Classic as the ‘now’ horse. The late developing colt has been on the improve all year long, and in his last two, he proved that he belongs with America’s best. In the Haskell, he tipped off his development with a fast closing second place finish, and then when he got that extra furlong in the Travers, it was lights out for American Pharoah and Frosted. Granted, those two helped his cause by getting into a mid-race duel, but still, this strapping son of Curlin had to have the class to go and get the job done, and he did. It would seem a good bet that he can fire a similar shot in the ten furlong Classic, and with Beholder needing to go after the Pharoah pretty early, Keen Ice could get a repeat scenario as he enjoyed in the Travers.
Matt – You are not going to get much argument from me about Keen Ice. His last two races were good enough to live up to all the hype from his trainer Dale Romans. If you are asking me to pick a three-year-old in the Classic it would be Keen Ice. He has gotten so good and he will be another one offering great value. I see Keen Ice as a must use and a key in the Classic trifecta.
Brian - I will admit, as my favorite horse in training, it might be a little bit difficult to remain unbiased when it comes to Frosted, but I really believe the son of Tapit is coming to the Classic the right way. Since his sharp win in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, he has run nothing but good races. After a bad beginning in the Kentucky Derby, I think he proved that the ten furlong trip is right up his alley and keep in mind that he was the one that had to do much of the dirty work against American Pharoah in the Belmont and the Travers. Alone to his own devices, in other words no Pharoah, Frosted looked fantastic in dominating the million dollar Pennsylvania Derby last time, so he looks to be in peak condition for his final start of 2015.
Matt – Brian, you know that I have never agreed with you about Frosted and I still do not. His win in the Pennsylvania Derby did nothing to change my feelings that Frosted is a horse that is a notch below the best three-year-olds. The PA Derby had a weak field and it was a race where Frosted had to make sure not to embarrass himself. Frosted has found lots of different reasons for coming up short in the big races and now comes the Classic, the biggest race of them all on the biggest stage of them all. I will pass on Frosted with my strong point of view about the son of Tapit probably equal to yours.
Brian - Matt, let’s not forget about one of Europe’s finest horses in Gleneagles. He was the top juvenile in Europe last year, and is undefeated against Group 1 competition this year. Strictly from a class standpoint, it would be hard to argue that this son of Galileo doesn’t fit with our best. Because in large part to our Triple Crown winner, this may prove to be a tough year for a European to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but they have won it a few times over the years, on both dirt and synthetics, and have come very close on several other occasions. Considering his class, if Gleneagles does take to dirt, he becomes a very interesting wildcard.
Matt– I know Europeans have won the Classic, Raven’s Pass did it as a three-year-old in 2008, but this a very tough bunch in the Classic this year. This son of Galileo is unbeaten in 2015 at Ascot, the Curragh, and Newmarket, three of the best tracks across the pond. I heard recently that Gleneagles might run at Ascot this weekend depending on the turf conditions. Trainer Aidan O’Brien is looking for not wet turf and if they get it they hope to run Gleneagles in England and then right back two weeks later in the Classic. That seems like a tough task, even for the trainer of eight Breeders’ Cup winners. One thing is for sure, bettors will get a much bigger price at Keeneland than at Ascot.
Brian - They say older horses always have the advantage in the fall, yet still, ten editions of the Classic have been won by the youngsters. My point being, that good three-year-olds find a way to get it done in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Surely American Pharoah qualifies as one of the good ones. Until I am proven wrong on the last Saturday of October, I will consider him the best horse in America. That is why I feel so strongly about this argument. Having quality horses like Keen Ice, Frosted, and Gleneagles as ready and able to back him up, doesn’t hurt a bit either.
Matt – This three-year-old group has been billed as the best in many years and I absolutely believe that is true. I still think that if American Pharoah is at his best that the rest are running for second place. On the other hand, if Beholder came acclimate to the Kentucky racetrack then she can become the second female winner of the Classic because she is that good right now. That is two tough horses that will be the overwhelming top betting choices. Don’t forget to consider Keen Ice and Honor Code as horses at the right price to pull the upset.