Pletcher could hold the Pace cards in the Belmont Stakes

With the defection of the Kentucky Derby winner, Nyquist, from the Belmont Stakes, the prospective field for the final leg of the 2016 Triple Crown appears to be devoid of pace. Exaggerator will be favored, but likes to come from behind. Much of his likely competition; Suddenbreakingnews, Cherry Wine, Creator, Brody’s Cause, Lani, Mo Tom, and Governor Malibu, are likewise confirmed stretch runners. Enter Todd Pletcher. The seven-time trainer of the year, and two-time winner of the Belmont, Pletcher has more than one horse in his barn that would look good all alone on the lead, especially while setting pedestrian fractions. One of them has been pointed to the Belmont all along, while the other could be a very interesting late addition to the June 11 fun.

Ever since Destin crossed the finish line in the Kentucky Derby, a run in the Belmont was the confirmed plan. The Tampa Bay Derby winner actually ran a good race in Louisville. After a bumpy start, the full brother to Creative Cause got himself into a good position under Javier Castellano, and was looking like he could be a real threat on the far turn. That did not last too long, though, as Nyquist pulled clear, and Exaggerator went zooming by. Still, for a horse who never been farther than 8 ½ furlongs, and was coming into the first Saturday in May off an eight-week layoff, his sixth place finish was quite solid. And while the top two again waged battle, this time in Baltimore, Destin was resting, in hopes of firing his best shot, five weeks after his good effort at Churchill Downs, in the Belmont. The experience of the Derby should only make him stronger, and while he is not a true speed horse, he certainly has more early pace than anyone currently on the list of probables.

Meanwhile, Stradivari became the most talked about new addition to the Triple Crown, as he moved from a big allowance win at Keeneland straight into the Middle Jewel. Making only his fourth lifetime start, just his second of 2016, and his first on a sloppy track, the son of Medaglia d’Oro proved that he belongs in Grade 1 company with a fine fourth-place run in the Preakness. Despite being a little rank early, and a little wide on the far turn, he finished well, and was only a half-length out of second on the wire. Off that performance, the sky would still seem to be the limit for the John D. Gunther bred, dark bay. While Destin is clearly pointed for the Belmont, the plan with Stradivari is a little more unclear, but with a good run in the Preakness, and a real lack of pace shaping up in the Belmont, the time might be now, for the lightly raced, but extremely talented, colt to strike.

The pair actually sparred together heading into the Kentucky Derby. I found it to be the most interesting workout of the entire lead-up to the Derby. The pair really went at it, with Stradivari needing to be restrained from opening up early, while Destin was the stronger late. Both are clearly talented, and either would seem well suited to lead a paceless Belmont field on a merry chase.

At 1 ½ miles over Big Sandy, the Belmont Stakes would not seem like a race ripe to be wired, but history has taught us that given the right circumstance, horses on the lead can often outrun their odds. Longshot winners like, Commendable and Da’ Tara readily come to mind. In fact, we only have to go back two years to find a Todd Pletcher trained horse who nearly made the most of an easy pace in the Belmont. You’ll remember how close Commissioner came to going all the way in 2014 at odds of nearly 30-1. If the pace is slow, these early leaders can get awfully brave, especially when the horses behind them, hoping to reel them in, have already run farther than they ever have before.

They say pace makes the race. In the 2016 Belmont Stakes, look for one of Todd Pletcher’s colts to make the pace, and whether it be Destin or Stradivari, both look like major dangers to steal away with Belmont Park’s signature race.