Playing Against Keen Ice in the Donn
Only one horse in eight races was able to finish ahead of American Pharaoh last year, and that was Keen Ice. That victory, over the Triple Crown Champion in the Grade 1 Travers, brings a fair amount of notoriety. As such, it should come as no surprise that the four-year-old son of Curlin is listed as the favorite and the horse to beat in tomorrow’s Grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park. It seems reasonable, as certainly no other horse entered in the Donn has a victory that comes close to that of Keen Ice’s big win last August at Saratoga. The problem for Keen Ice, and his supporters in the Donn, is that this spot would appear to be ripe for the upset.
Listen, I like both Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing, and trainer Dale Romans quite a bit. I also have a great deal of respect for Keen Ice as a runner. This is no ways a bash Keen Ice article. However, when it comes to the likelihood of the favorite winning the feature at Gulfstream Park tomorrow, I do not like his chances one bit, and here are several factors why …
Gulfstream Park is not exactly kind to late runners. Keen Ice is best when he can make a late run on a surface conducive to that, and against front runners that have been softened up by a hot pace. When he gets that scenario, he is world class. I have little doubt that Keen Ice will be making up ground in the stretch, but this in no ways seems to be a spot where the early speed will be collapsing. Both the racing surface and the likely pace scenario tell me that the Donn is a race that will favor horses on or close to the early pace. One of my three top picks in the race, Valid, has plenty of early speed, and could encounter one of the easiest early paces he has seen recently. Valid also has a sparkling 12-6-3-1 record over the Gulfstream Park main track. Conversely, in Keen Ice’s only previous race at Gulfstream he finished fifth.
Current form is also against the Travers winner. Away since November, this will be Keen Ice’s first race off the layoff, and his first start since a demanding campaign in 2015. Meanwhile, three of his competitors in the Donn, including the other two of my top picks, Itsaknockout and Mshawish, are not only coming in off a recent win, but did so over the track. Mexikoma is the third horse coming in off a recent win, and that was also at Gulfstream.
Next, I point to the overall importance of this race. For Keen Ice, I believe that even though it is a Grade 1, it is merely a prep for a bigger event, namely the $10 million Dubai World Cup. Comparatively, every other horse in the race will be looking at the Donn as the potential biggest victory in their career. While in some ways, this speaks to the overall class of Keen Ice, it also points to him being the least cranked up of any horse in the field, and make no mistake, this is a field of some quality. In fact, every horse in the race has some clear things to like.
And finally, as good as Keen Ice is, he is not a winner. Evidence of that can be seen in his lifetime record of 2-of-13, and his 2015 mark of 1-of-9. That’s right, his career making victory in the Mid-Summer Derby was also his lone victory as a three-year-old. Sure, he ran against consistently top horses, but even in races without American Pharaoh, Keen Ice was unable to find the winner’s circle. There have been plenty of good performances in his pp’s, but do we really want to hop on a favorite in Grade 1 who has lost more than five times more than he has won? Meanwhile, my top picks for the race; Itsaknockout, Mshawish, and Valid, all like to win. Combined the trio is 24-for-62 lifetime.
A favorite that I believe very likely to be beaten, is my favorite angle as a bettor, and that is exactly what I see when I handicap the Donn.