Pattison Canadian International 2016: Odds and Analysis

As promised by the name, the 2016 Pattison Canadian International has delivered on bringing together an international group of quality turf specialists to Woodbine. Won in years past by such equine standouts as Bull Page, Secretariat, Dahlia, Exceller, All Along, Sky Classic, and Singspiel; in recent editions, the Grade 1 affair has been dominated by a human. Arguably the world’s best jockey, Englishman Ryan Moore has won three straight times in the important 12-furlong grass test, and looks to have a big shot to make it four Canadian Internationals running, when he gets a leg up on a talented Irish-bred three-year-old on Sunday. Will Moore do it again? Let’s take a look at the probable field, including my projected odds and analysis.

8) Erupt (6-1) – Bred in Ireland, the four-year-old son of top sire, Dubawi, is a Group 1 winner in France, having won the first four races of his career last season. He carried that form into the world’s best turf race, while finishing fifth, beaten less than four lengths by Golden Horn in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and followed that up with a fine two-length defeat in the Japan Cup. This year has been a little more of a struggle for Erupt and his young trainer, Henri Graffard, but he has been rounding into form of late. Facing top horses in Europe, he's been right there in each of his last three. The first European to arrive for the International, Erupt should find the condition of the turf course on Sunday to his liking, with his preference for firmer turf. He also finds a race devoid of much early pace, so look for him to use his tactical speed to be in contact throughout. He should be primed for a top effort. My Top Pick

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3) Idaho (5-2) – Not only will the likely favorite bring in a fair amount of class to Woodbine, but he also has the advantage of Ryan Moore in the saddle. Another with enough early speed to be involved throughout, the son of Galileo has proven to be one of the best three-year-olds in Europe this year, highlighted by a third in the Epsom Derby and a second in the Irish Derby. In the latter, he was piloted by Moore, and the pair gave the favored Harzand everything he wanted that afternoon. He dumped his rider last time, when the choice in the English St. Leger, but should be no worse for wear from the experience. He is the one they likely all have to beat. The Moore Factor

5) Dartmouth (7-2) – Her Royal Highness has a real shot to take home the trophy on Sunday. The Queen’s horse not only likes to win, with 7 victories in 14 lifetime starts, but has proven of late that he belongs with top class competition. Three starts back, he scored a big victory while taking the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. That day he got the best of Highland Reel, who most recently came back to finish second in the Arc. His class confirmed, he was unable to get the win in his last two, but ran solid races in each, including finishing narrowly ahead of Erupt in the prestigious King George & Queen Elizabeth. Another Dangerous Invader

4) The Pizza Man (6-1) – The first North American runner to appear on this list, The Pizza Man remains as consistent as they come, despite recently suffering through the first losing streak of his career. A winner of 17-of-30 lifetime on the turf, the experienced son of English Channel finally got off the schneid of four consecutive losses, with a satisfying victory in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer over this same course last time. After likely being too far back, and racing too far wide, in his most recent defeats, new rider Flavien Prat had him in the race from the opening bell in that one. The change of tactics was a success, and the son of English Channel proved that he still has it. If I am wrong, and the Euros do not hold a bit of a class edge, the old guy quickly becomes the one to beat. Still Delivering

2) World Approval (8-1) – After winning the Grade 1 United Nations in sparkling fashion this summer, this Mark Casse trained runner has come up short as the favorite in both the Arlington Million and the Northern Dancer. Neither were poor efforts by any stretch, but they do make me wonder whether he can fully get the job done in one of his toughest tests yet. Having said that, the Casse barn remains hot, and this one does have the most speed in the field. Controls the Pace

6) Wake Forest (8-1) – Another who seemed poised for a big season after scoring in a Grade 1 earlier this year. Three subsequent starts since the Man O’ War for the late runner have come up short, though. In the Arlington Million he had traffic trouble, and last time he closed well to finish second behind The Pizza Man. My guess is that things will only get tougher this time. He certainly is a threat to rally into the exotics, but as a win candidate, I am not quite sold. Picks Up Some of the Pieces

9) Protectionist (5-1) – What a difference a year makes. The 2014 winner of the Melbourne Cup looked absolutely lost for trainer Andreas Wohler last year. He finished out of the money in all eight starts in 2015, but has seemingly returned to form in 2016. Perfect in three starts this year, we already know he can ship and win, but whether that recent good form in Germany will carryover against this bunch is a question. Still, he is obviously a threat on his best. Best at Two Miles?

1) Danish Dynaformer (15-1) – The house horse, trained by the legendary Roger Attfield, has had plenty of chances in big races since romping home over the Woodbine turf in last year’s final leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. While competitive against the top ones, he just has not proven that he can actually win something like this. Not Quite Good Enough

7) Taghleeb (30-1) - Originally talking about sending his big horse, Da Big Hoss, Taghleeb seems like a poor substitute from the barn of Mike Maker. I cannot recommend his chances. The Outsider