Pacific Classic 2016: Flavien Prat benefits Dortmund

Gary Stevens is one of the greatest riders in the history of American racing. Meanwhile, Flavien Prat is a 22-year-old French import, who has yet to win one of America’s biggest races. So why do I have the sneaky feeling that Dortmund just got a favorable rider change for the $1 million TVG Pacific Classic?

Editor's Note - Bob Baffert has changed his mind ... Rafael Bejarano will now ride Dortmund in Saturday's Pacific Classic.

The big race, set for next Saturday, August 20 at Del Mar is poised to be a terrific showdown between three of the best horses in the United States. California Chrome is a Kentucky Derby and Preakness winning Horse of the Year from 2014. In 2016, he is undefeated in four starts, including a big win in the Dubai World Cup.

Dortmund is a multiple graded stakes winner, who has won 8 of his 11 lifetime starts for owner Kaleem Shah and trainer Bob Baffert. He has only run once this year, but it was a bang-up effort, losing a narrow decision to California Chrome in the San Diego Handicap last month.

Beholder is defending champion of the Pacific Classic, and the queen of U.S. racing. The three-time Eclipse Award winner has only lost one race in the last two years, although that came in her most recent effort, when she was edged late by the younger champion, Stellar Wind.

All three are fantastic horses, and figure to dominate the big, Grade 1 race, but what about race tactics? Interestingly, California Chrome, Dortmund, and Beholder all prefer to be on or near the lead. As excellent as the horses are, the decisions and the skills of the riders could really play an important part of how the race is run, and how the race is won. Having said that, I find it very interesting to see who will ride each.

Stevens is the regular rider of both Beholder and Dortmund. Now that it looks fairly certain that the mare is going to run, the Hall of Fame rider had an important decision to make. As expected, Stevens stuck with his longtime partner, Beholder. Armed with that news, Baffert did not waste time in naming Prat.

What Prat lacks in experience, he more than makes up for with talent and confidence. One of the best young riders in the world, Prat has been the leading rider at one of the biggest meets on the American calendar most of the way. At the Del Mar summer meeting, he has proven to be world class, and he has the positive momentum of a rider who gets to the winner’s circle often. This will be his first ride on Dortmund, but it could well be a match made in heaven.

I hate to say it, but my feeling is that Stevens has lost a step. Now 53, he has been on the losing end of the two marquee match-ups so far at Del Mar. In both the San Diego Handicap, where he rode Dortmund, and the Clement L. Hirsch, where he rode Beholder, Stevens was outridden by Victor Espinoza who aggressively piloted California Chrome and Stellar Wind to important victories respectively.

Certainly California Chrome, who will be favored among the three stars that will headline the Pacific Classic, is in good shape. He will have Victor Espinoza in the saddle, as usual. Espinoza has more big wins the last few years than any rider.

Of Chrome’s main competition, I believe Dortmund, the horse who gave him all he wanted in the San Diego, may have an unexpected advantage. Dare I say, he will actually get a boost by losing the Gary Stevens sweepstakes. Flavien Prat is that good.