Ohio Derby 2016: Odds and Analysis

With a cool $500,000 on the line, Saturday’s Ohio Derby was sure to attract a hot field to JACK Thistledown Racino in Suburban Cleveland. Leading the way will be GMB Racing’s popular winner of the Lecomte Stakes, Mo Tom. Since winning that grade 3 race back in January, the good looking son of Uncle Mo has been devoid of racing luck in three subsequent outings, including an eighth-place finish in the big one, the Kentucky Derby. He’ll be the one to beat in the nine-furlong affair, but far from a cinch to claim his third lifetime stakes win. The Thistle should be rocking on Saturday, still aglow with the Cleveland Cavaliers huge win on Sunday night, the city’s first major sports title in more than half a century. Without further ado, let’s take a look at the field of ten, with my analysis and projected odds.

Mo Tom (7-5) – Mo Tom has been unluckier in his last three starts than a space heater salesman in Hades. At least, unlucky would be one way of looking at it. Another way would be to say that he is a horse quite skilled at finding traffic at just the wrong time. Still, whether you believe his luck was beyond his control or not, the two-time stakes winner brings a whole lot of class to the Ohio Derby for trainer Tom Amoss. In his last six starts, he has either come home a stakes winner, against good fields, or he has made a good showing against several of the best sophomores in the country. And of course, there is the brutal racing luck he has consecutively run into in the Risen Star, Louisiana Derby, and Kentucky Derby, that make you wonder what could have been. To make Mo Tom all that much more formidable on Saturday, the nation’s leading rider, Javier Castellano will travel west to take a leg up on the Ohio Derby favorite. If Javy can give the late-runner a decent trip, and not be too far out of it as the field turns for home, then his mount becomes strictly the one to beat.  Hard to Look Past

Wild About Deb (5-1) – Now, I am not suggesting that he had a Mo Tom type of trip last time, but all-in-all, the son of Eskendereya made a pretty good account of himself, considering the wide trip in the Grade 2 Peter Pan. While Unified and Governor Malibu saved all the ground that afternoon, it was the lightly raced colt from the barn of Phil D’Amato who went wide and still finished with strong late foot to be third. Considering that it was his stakes debut, and, in fact, only the third start of his career, there is good reason to believe that we have not seen the best of this Marisa Lizza Racing runner. In his start before the Peter Pan, he won a sharp maiden race at Santa Anita going nine furlongs, and from a close-up stalking position. He now has proven he can ship, get the distance, and has the tactical speed to be in position at the top of the lane. Any improvement of the Peter Pan makes him a danger in here.   Plenty o’ Potential

Adventist (6-1) -  After breaking his maiden in high style while making his career debut for trainer Leah Gyarmati, the son of Any Given Saturday has hit the board in four consecutive graded stakes races in New York. The trouble is, I’m not sure that he is heading in the right direction. In succession, he was third in the Withers, third in the Gotham, third in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial, and fourth in the Peter Pan. He has run a bit greenly often, while making up ground late, but it was in his last race when I really began to worry that he needs an easier spot, at least for now. The Peter Pan was his first race away from Aqueduct, and while he was trying down the stretch, he was clearly being outfinished by both Governor Malibu and Wild About Deb. On his best, he certainly can contend, but right now, I like Deb better.  Due for a Breakthrough

Decorated Soldier (8-1) -  What’s a rich three-year-old race without the presence of trainer, Todd Pletcher? I wouldn’t know, because the ubiquitous conditioner is almost always there with a fork in the pie. In Decorated Soldier, he has a colt who was clearly a progressive type until his last go round. The son of recently deceased Proud Citizen was a $120,000 purchase by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, and looked well on his way to good things with an eye-catching maiden romp at Tampa Bay Downs in his second career start. He followed that up with a hard-fought win in the Northern Spur Stakes at Oaklawn Park two starts back. Off those two performances which opened his three-year-old season, he moved up in class in the Peter Pan. His fifth place finish was certainly nothing to write home about, but like Wild About Deb, he is lightly raced with room for improvement. Class will be the question, as he makes his second start against formidable opposition.  Bounce Back Not out of the Question

Cocked and Loaded (10-1) -  A very promising juvenile multiple stakes winner, this son of Colonel John has not yet found his best stride yet at three. If you are willing to forgive his last place finish on the turf in the recent Arlington Classic, you need to go back only one further race to find a disappointing result, when he finished ahead of only horse in the 14-horse field of the Pat Day Mile. Off his recent form, I cannot recommend him in here, despite all of his back class.  No Strong Races in 2016

Thatlookonyerface (10-1) -  A Kentucky-bred son of the champion, Summer Bird, Thatlookonyerface is an improving gelding. After a nondescript juvenile season, the David Cotey-trainee has looked good at three. Following a troubled trip in the Wando Stakes, in which he was placed third, he came back to get up for an upset win in the Grade 3 Marine Stakes. Both of those performances, and all of his lifetime races for that matter, came on the synthetic main track at Woodbine, so we will need to see if he can transfer his good form to dirt. If he does, look out. Interesting Longshot

Mo Don’t No (15-1) -  Being an Ohio horse, and one that has never been beyond six furlongs, this son of Uncle Mo would seem to have the cards stacked against him. Of course, he does not know that, and he does have a few things in his favor. Improving with every start, he has won his last two, since returning to Thistledown, by more than 20 lengths total. He should be part of the pace, and there is a chance that he could get very brave as they turn for home.  Local Hero

Discreet Lover (15-1) -  The Parx horse has only one win in 12 lifetime starts. Having said that, the Florida-bred son of Repent has run some good races against good horses, including a nice second to Abiding Star in the Parx Derby. I certainly like others better on Saturday, but he at least has some decent experience at a similar level.  Player for Bottom of the Exotics Only

Van Damme (20-1) -  He does come in off a nice local win over the track, which was his first in five starts in 2016. Unfortunately, neither the time nor the competition leave much hope for him against this field.  Overmatched Against These

Riding in the Wind (30-1) -  The stakes winning Ohio-bred has picked a tough spot for his first race at Thistledown. While competitive against a different class of horse, he looks completely overmatched in this half-million dollar test. Up Against It