Odds are Anthony’s Cross Can’t Get No Respect
{{monthName}} {{day}}, {{year}} {{hour12}}:{{minuteTwoDigit}}{{dayPeriod}}
Zipse’s
Kentucky Derby Daily – Day 45
In scanning the latest 2011 Kentucky Derby Future Odds
released Sunday by Lucky’s, I was struck by the number of underlays among the
top choices. This is nothing new for Derby futures, but now as we hit the 45
day mark from the big event, it is clear that the top choices offer little to
no real value. Uncle Mo 5-2? The Factor 4-1? Dialed In 6-1? To Honor and Serve
9-1? Thanks, but no thanks. Many of these horses will actually be higher when
the field enters the starting gate. I think of the big names, it might be
Premier Pegasus at 10-1, or Mucho Macho Man at 20-1 that offer the best value in
my book, but still with so much that can happen in the next 6 ½ weeks, these
odds are not good enough for me to consider them a wise investment at this
juncture.
Still I scanned on. It’s just fun to see where an odds
making expert from Vegas rates the multitude of horses listed on the Lucky’s
list, and then compare that to my feelings on each horse. Soldat 13-1? No. Jaycito
15-1? Not quite. Stay Thirsty 20-1? Not for me. There must be horse in there
that I like that still has juicy odds. Elite Alex interests me, but at 20-1, he
is just too low to take the plunge. I took a long pause when I saw the well
bred son of Distorted Humor, Machen is still listed at 40-1. Surely his odds
would plummet with a big performance in Saturday’s Louisiana Derby, but I still
can’t help wondering if he wants to beat top horses going ten furlongs. I will
not play him, but with that find, I was becoming more interested in seeing what
other possible hidden gems I could find. Another horse in with a chance in the
million dollar Louisiana Derby, is an Al Stall trained gelding named Left. At
125-1 for Kentucky, the odds are certainly juicy, but when I weighed all the
factors … with only two races under his belt, and the fact that the gelding
would need to be a late supplement for the triple crown, meant that even at
those odds, Left has too much to overcome for me to play him.
Tapizar would turn the tables when winning the Sham
Stakes, as Anthony’s Cross spun his wheels a bit in his first race at three,
and his first race over the superspeedway of Santa Anita. Harty equipped the
bay colt, owned by Arianne de Kwiatkowski, with blinkers for the first time in
his next start, and the improvement was obvious. Winning the Grade 2 Robert
Lewis Stakes in a spirited battle over Riveting Reason, Anthony’s Cross
displayed both heart and the ability to handle nine furlongs. Since given a
solid rest, he has been working up a storm of late over at Hollywood Park,
including a recent bullet work in 46 4/5. It was the fastest work of the day by
a long way, making me believe he should be in tip-top shape for an engagement
in the April 9 Santa Anita Derby. As you can tell there is a lot about this guy, currently ranked #10 on the HRN 2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders list,
I like, and at 50-1, you can consider me in.
He may not be getting much respect on a national level,
but I got my future horse, now I just need to find that phone number of my guy
in Las Vegas.
Read More
That Breeders' Cup hangover hits different when you realize racing never takes a breath. Seven graded stakes across...
This is how horses across the Breeders' Cup races including Forever Young , Scylla and more came out...
History will be made on Monday night when the Bill Mott-trained Parchment Party and hall of fame jockey...
Magnitude , the impressive Grade 2 Risen Star winner who most recently finished second behind Baeza in the...
Bishops Bay earned the fastest Horse Racing Nation speed figure on Sunday, a 135, for his game three-quarter-length...