Nyquist led Haskell Invitational 2016: Odds and Analysis

There is more than just a little on the line in Sunday’s betfair.com Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. For starters, there is the not too small matter of the $1 million purse. Not bad work if you can get it. Then there is the Breeders’ Cup carrot of this being a ‘Win and You’re In’ event. Probably not such a big deal to the Kentucky Derby winner, who will be stabled at Santa Anita this fall, but for the rest, the one of seven automatic entries into the $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic is nothing to sneeze at. Finally, with Nyquist already having won three graded stakes, including the Run for the Roses, he might only be a win away from all but wrapping up an Eclipse Award, but with the top three finishers from the Kentucky Derby all in for the rematch, a victory by any of them could mean a lot come the end of the year. Let's take a look at the six-horse field with my analysis and projected odds ...

1) Nyquist (1-1) – For the first time in his career, the champion son of Uncle Mo will come into a race off a defeat. Keep in mind, though, the Preakness was not a race that set up for the Doug O’Neill-trainee. A sloppy track, a speed duel into the first turn, and even a little illness discovered soon after the race were all reasons to explain why the horse, who came in perfect in eight starts, would go down to defeat in Baltimore. Still, the determined bay colt ran a big race to just miss second place in the final jump. More than two months removed from that courageous effort, Nyquist should be rested, fresh and ready for an assault on the second half of the year. While anything less than a win on the Jersey Shore would be a disappointment to many, Nyquist has not found an easy spot for his return. Both from an early pace scenario, and a class of competition perspective, the Haskell represents a major test for the Eclipse Award winner. Having said all that, I have seen enough from him in the last nine races not to pick anyone but him in this spot. The Champ is Back

4) Gun Runner (3-1) – Gun Runner does have one advantage over Nyquist -- While the champ ran a taxing race in racing’s middle jewel, this good looking son of Candy Ride was in the barn getting some rest after a solid third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He then came back in June to treat lesser horses badly in the Matt Winn Stakes. This pattern should give the romping Louisiana Derby winner his best opportunity to knock off the leader of the division on Sunday. Having said that, he was in perfect position in the Derby to do it, and really had no answer for the colt from California. Maybe he rates a better chance at nine furlongs, but I think his best hope is a less than at his best Nyquist. The more likely scenario, in my eyes, is that Gun Runner runs another strong race, but that it falls just a little bit short to a horse that is just a little bit better. His Best Chance to Upset

6) Exaggerator (3-1) – The Preakness winner fizzled out down the stretch of the Belmont Stakes, but before that he ran consecutive big races in winning the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness, which sandwiched a bang-up second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Now coming out of a disappointing effort in the 12-furlong Belmont is not an ideal way to enter the nine-furlong Haskell, but the good ones can do it. Is Exaggerator the type of class horse to do it? The answer to that question, is both a yes and a no, in my opinion. I believe he will show his class by running a strong race in the Haskell, but it is my guess that it will not be enough to beat his old rival Nyquist again. Kudos to his connections for going after this one, and at the very least it should provide him a favorable early pace scenario. Should Get Pace to Chase

5) American Freedom (6-1) – If you believe all the hype, or the buzz from the California clockers, this horse is ready to bust out on Haskell day. Remember back on Derby day, he was not up to the challenge of the Pat Day Mile. Of course, that was only his second lifetime race, so I guess the defeat can be easily excused. Since then the son of Pulpit was resolute in a Sir Barton win, and then much the best in the Iowa Derby. Neither of those fields offered near the competition he will find at Monmouth Park, though. He is an up and comer, and he is another like the top two, who prefers to be on or near the lead. Add it all up, and I do not believe he has quite arrived to the point where he can be expected to beat all of the top three finishers from the first Saturday in May. I say this despite the fact that his Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, absolutely owns this race. Gets Acid Test

2) Sunny Ridge (20-1) – Talk about pointing for a race; remember he gave Exaggerator everything he wanted in the Delta Downs Jackpot late last year, before parlaying that into Grade 3 Withers success in January. His New Jersey connections never believed him to be a ten-furlong horse, so after falling a little short in the Gotham, they decided to turn all focus on their personal Kentucky Derby, the Haskell. Surprisingly, he will try to win without benefit of a prep. The track, set up of the race, and the distance should all suit his style, and my guess is Jason Servis should have him ready to fire first time back. A very good performance might just put him in the mix to hit the board; it would be a nice story. His Kentucky Derby

3) Awesome Slew (30-1) – I think he will turn out to be a nice racehorse, but this spot … well this spot is tough. A horse who had to fight for his life over the winter, Awesome Slew has been pointed to the Haskell now for months by trainer Eddie Plesa. Still lightly raced, the good looking son of Awesome Again ran a solid race in his prep, the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes, before fading just a tad late. I believe there is still plenty of room for improvement for this one, but recommending that he can contend with the best of the crop is just a little more than I am ready to do. Nice Horse, but Overmatched

What a story it would be if Sunny Ridge could pull the upset ...

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