Zipse: 1 horse stands out as early Pegasus World Cup pick

With the Grade 1, $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational the most immediate big race on the horizon, I decided to take a look at the early probables on the Stakes Tracker here at Horse Racing Nation.

Among those expected to run, there did not appear to be a clear-cut favorite. Still, one name stood out to me. I think the horse they all will have to beat in the big-money race is Preakness winner National Treasure.

To say that the son of Quality Road has not yet been a winning machine for trainer Bob Baffert would be a bit of an understatement. He has a classic victory, but other than going gate to wire in the middle jewel of the 2023 Triple Crown, his only other career win came in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race in September 2022.

Although the lifetime record of two wins from 10 starts for National Treasure sounds rather paltry, there is much more beneath the surface of my early Pegasus World Cup pick.

First and foremost would be the company he has kept. Since winning in his career debut at Del Mar 15 months ago, the bay colt has run in nine consecutive graded stakes. Almost incredibly, all but one of those starts came in Grade 1 company.

You won’t find many horses who have started in such a high percentage of races at the highest level. When he enters the starting gate at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 27 for the Pegasus, it will be his ninth Grade 1 start in only 11 career starts. National Treasure should be respected for such a challenging schedule.

Strengthening my belief that National Treasure is primed for a strong 2024, beginning with the Pegasus, is the way he finished his sophomore season. Although he hit the board in several big races before, his performance in the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile was above and beyond the rest.

We love the Triple Crown series in America, but I have no hesitation in calling National Treasure’s runner-up performance in the Breeders’ Cup his best race yet. Yes, even better than his game Preakness victory.

Cody’s Wish was an overwhelming favorite on that afternoon at Santa Anita for a reason. In fact, the 5-year-old powerhouse soon might be awarded with a horse of the year title.

For National Treasure to dig down deep and give the older champ everything he wanted all the way to the wire could be and should be a sign that he is ready to take things to another level.

Well liked since the beginning, this is a horse who I always thought might have more under the hood than he was showing. A bit green at times, and without the turn of foot of some of his excellent competition, he often was left without an answer when the real running began.

It’s clear to me now that National Treasure is absolutely at his most dangerous when he is let loose and sent right to the early lead. That’s how he won the Preakness, and that’s how he ran his career best last time in the Dirt Mile.

In that one, he had to run fast early to get to the front. Once he did, the 3-year-old looked very comfortable against his older competition. Hounded pretty well down the backstretch, he didn’t get much of a breather before the irresistible rally of Cody’s Wish prompted a terrific stretch battle.

It’s only natural for connections to want to see what a horse can do when relaxed early in two-turn races. Some horses, however, are just built to go the lead and dare their competition to get by them. I believe National Treasure is such a horse.

The way he was willing to fight without giving an inch in the stretch of both the Preakness and the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile tells me all I need to know about National Treasure. Just imagine how scary he will be next year with a freewheeling style and a more mature physique.

His sire was a wildly talented horse, who sometimes was his own worst enemy. Quality Road was a beast, though, at his best. He also got better with age. I suspect National Treasure will be a horse who can be described the same way this time next year.

Speed is always dangerous, and when you add to the equation a horse who has the heart to fight tooth and nail to hold that lead to the wire, then you have the recipe of a consistent winner.

It’s not yet proven, but I am expecting that for National Treasure in 2024. It promises to be a very big year for the maturing colt, and I look for it to start next month in the rich Pegasus World Cup.