My Best Plays for Breeders’ Cup 2014
Juvenile Turf - Europeans, Europeans, Europeans. Yes, I think one of the European shippers will win the Juvenile Turf for the fourth consecutive year. In general, they are more experienced than their American counterparts, and clearly, on the turf, we are the weaker bunch. Of the Euros, I like Commemorative the best. He already owns two sharp wins over the distance in England, and by all accounts, the grandson of Gone West is thriving this fall. For some odds, Wet Sail has run back-to-back very good races in big fields, and should appreciate the stretch out to a mile. War Envoy, from the Aidan O’Brien barn, should be running on late, and is the most likely to get into the picture. Of the Americans, I like Startup Nation best.
Dirt Mile - Goldencents is the most likely winner of any horse during this year’s World Championships.
Juvenile Fillies Turf - This one looks wide open, with several possible winners from both sides of the pond. The two I will lean to the most in my Pick 4 are Osaila and Rainha Da Bateria. The latter has closed consistently well in three turf starts for trainer Graham Motion and should benefit from a lively early pace, while the former likely needs only to carry over her excellent form in Europe to be the filly to beat in here.
Distaff - It seems many have jumped off the Close Hatches bandwagon, but not me. I am willing to give the excellent, consistent, Distaff runner-up from last year another shot, after a poor showing in the Spinster. I like her a little better than Untapable, with the long shot Euro, L’Amour de Ma Vie, who is bred for dirt, and has the class to compete, as one to include in the Pick 4.
Juvenile Fillies - Top Decile is my top selection in a tough heat. Al Stall has been high on the daughter of Congrats for a while now, and she has looked the part in winning a maiden nicely at the Spa, and then coming from well off the pace to run second in a large Grade 1 Alcibiades field. Look for her to be a little closer to the pace this time. For a value play, Majestic Presence won a key maiden race two starts back, and ran a better than it looks on paper fourth in the Grade 1 Chandelier last time for Jerry Hollendorfer.
Filly & Mare Sprint - Leigh Court is my best bet of the 13 Breeders’ Cup races. She was a very solid three-year-old filly last year in Canada, but it looks like she is taking it up a notch this year for trainer Josie Carroll. Her win in the TCA at Keeneland was as good as anyone in this division has run in 2014, and the seven furlongs should be right up her alley. Look for her to stalk Stonetastic and wear her down in the stretch. As the third or fourth choice, with the other favorites all having vulnerabilities, Leigh Court will be a key play for me on Saturday.
Filly & Mare Turf - I was looking for someone to beat Dank, but I was unable to do so. She has a great chance to repeat.
Turf Sprint - One of the tougher races on the Breeders’ Cup smorgasbord of races, I cannot eliminate many of the 14 with any confidence. Among the many contenders, I’m leaning to Undrafted and Ambitious Brew as my two favorites.
Juvenile - I wanted to like Souper Colossal in here, coming off three nice wins at Monmouth, but with his recent much-too-fast workout, I’m worried that he won’t be able to relax at all early, which could make his task more difficult. Pletcher’s two, obviously both look tough, but as the chalk, neither colt, making only their third lifetime start respectively, is unbeatable. Of the rest, Calculator and One Lucky Dane.
Turf - This one looks like the winner should come from one of four horses: Flintshire, Telescope, Main Sequence, and Hardest Core. Of the likely winners, I see the value being on the latter. The surprise winner of the Arlington Million has been training well, and in unique style for his second huge race in succession. His Million was top quality, and the good news for his supporters, is that 12 furlongs should only be better for him than the 1 ¼ miles he found in Chicago.
Sprint - Secret Circle and Rich Tapestry are the deserving favorites, but neither is a lock in here. Among the horses with some odds, I’m looking for Bourbon Courage or Salutos Amigos, who both have the ability to make that turn move that has carried the winner to many a Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
Mile - If Toronado runs his typical European best, he could well be too good for this field. As a heavy favorite, though, it could be a good race to try beat the shipper. Tom’s Tribute keeps improving, has never been better, and should sit a perfect trip just off the pace. If he is anywhere near his gaudy morning line, he offers great value. A pair of classy European three-year-olds, Karakontie, Mustajeeb, Veda are all eligible to take the whole thing at good odds.
Classic - Forget the two favorites, I believe the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Classic will come from one of these three: Tonalist (the most proven distance horse in the race), Cigar Street (the fresh older horse with oodles of talent), or Candy Boy (the consistent rallier, who should be ready to throw in a career best at ten furlongs with a solid early pace.)