Zipse: Muth is lying in wait for Mystik Dan in Preakness

In this age of top horses running only sparingly, the best way to prep for the Preakness is by not running in the Kentucky Derby.

As a longtime lover of the Triple Crown, it hurts me to say that, but I believe it to be true. After Mystik Dan’s thrilling win in the run for the roses, it’s advantage Muth as we move on to Baltimore.

Where Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone, Forever Young and the rest were throwing down at Churchill Downs, Muth’s only battle came in the courtroom. Ironically, legal losses at the hands of a pair of Kentucky judges may pave the way to victory in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

In a twist of fate, Muth was the winner of this year’s Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which was the last race run by Mystik Dan before putting his name in the record books with a whisker win in the Kentucky Derby.

Racing luck unfolded poorly for Mystik Dan in the first half of the Arkansas Derby in stark contrast to his trip Saturday, but still there can be little doubt that Muth was the best horse that afternoon at Oaklawn.

It won’t be easy at Pimlico, as I do expect some quality horses to show up in the Preakness, but Muth is a horse of quality.

Trained by Bob Baffert, whose ban is the reason he was excluded from the extravaganza under the twin spires, Muth has been quality from day 1.

A son of the champion Good Magic, Muth was purchased last year for $2 million at the Ocala Breeders’ March sale of 2-year-olds in training. New owner Amr Zedan promptly sent the seven-figure youngster to Baffert, and the colt has looked like a good buy ever since.

Out of the Uncle Mo mare Hoppa, his excellent juvenile season saw him finish first or second in all four starts. In his final two starts of 2023, the bay colt won the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and finished second behind eventual Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

In his most recent race, Muth proved he only is improving with age. Sent off as the 2-1 second choice in a field of 10, he always was involved under rider Juan Hernandez before taking command of the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at the head of the stretch.

Stopping the timer at a solid 1:49.54 for the 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn, he was two lengths clear of Just Steel at the wire with Mystik Dan farther back in third. If he had been allowed to compete in the Kentucky Derby, he would have been one of the favorites.

In earning his second Grade 1 victory in convincing fashion, Muth improved his overall record to four wins and two seconds in six career starts. In 2024, he is 2-for-2, having easily annexed the San Vicente Stakes (G2) early this year.

The victory in the Arkansas Derby by Muth was Baffert’s fifth in the Grade 1 race. The embattled Hall of Famer has won the Preakness a record eight times, including last year with National Treasure, who also was not eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Now proven outside of Santa Anita, where he earned his first three career wins, and with seven weeks between the Arkansas Derby and the Preakness, Muth would seem ideally primed for a big run at Pimlico.

Excluded from the big party that ended with Mystik Dan winning a three-way photo over Sierra Leone and Forever Young, Muth is lying in wait for the middle jewel. This year’s Preakness Stakes should be his race to lose.