Money Talks: 2015 Ohio Derby Preview

Pay them and they will come. It may be on the wrong side of the Ohio River from the biggest three-year-old race in the land, but this year’s Ohio Derby has come up big. In fact, it is the best field assembled in the Buckeye State for many years. On Saturday afternoon, nine three-year-olds will traverse 1 1/16 miles at Thistledown Racino in hopes of taking home the top prize in the track’s premier race, and this year, that top prize is a most attractive carrot. Spurred on by video lottery terminal monies, the Ohio Derby, only $100,000 two years ago, has been bumped up by $200,000 in consecutive years. The 2015 edition has attracted a field quite worthy of the $500,000 purse.  Here’s my rundown of the field, which includes six horses who competed in either the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness, from the rail out.

1. Whiskey Ticket  3-1 - You may think a horse who has only two lifetime races might be in tough against a field like this, but he has already fit an Illinois Derby victory into those first two starts. A Kentucky-bred son of Ghostzapper, Whiskey Ticket hails from the Triple Crown winning barn of Bob Baffert. Breaking from the rail, he will likely need to flash his natural speed under rider Martin Pedroza to avoid the shuffle back. That should not be too much of a problem, but solid pace pressure from the likes of Mr. Z, Thirtysilverpieces, and Bodhisattva still could make life tough on the inexperienced colt. As the morning line favorite, I’m willing to take a stand against him, with the full understanding that he could be the most talented horses in the race, and remains a threat.

2. Far Right 9-2 - The two-time stakes winner this winter at Oaklawn Park had run a series of solid rallying performances before not showing much in the Kentucky Derby. Throw out the Run for the Roses as a little too tough, but you still have a horse with no early speed, who is cutting back 3/16th’s in distance. That combination probably makes this spot a little too tough to believe he can run by them all, unless there is a crazy fast pace, which I am not projecting. A nice horse, but more likely for a minor award in this one.

3. Thirtysilverpieces  12-1 - If there winds up being a faster early pace than expected, this is the gelding that can be the cause. The son of Badge of Silver has run in nothing but mile or shorter races since December, usually flashing solid speed. Most of those races have come on turf, but his only dirt race was a romping win at Keeneland. He’s actually 2-for-3 on dirt, but both of those wins came against much cheaper. I don’t think the aforementioned speed competition will let him get away with too much, but if you are looking for a long shot who could get brave on the lead, this is your horse.

4. Divining Rod  7-2 - The horse to beat in my eyes comes in as the morning line second choice. At 7-2, the regally bred son of Tapit offers good value. He’s run well all year, and looks to be still improving. An easy winner of the Grade 3 Lexington over solid horses two starts ago, he was the only one in the Preakness to make a good middle move. He eventually was turned away with disdain by the Triple Crown winner, and was passed for second late, but his performance looks very strong in here. He’s come back from the Preakness with solid works at the peaceful setting of Fair Hill for trainer Arnaud Delacour, so there is good reason to believe that he will continue his upward trajectory in America’s glamour division.

5. War Story  6-1 - After a series of solid, but unspectacular in the money performances in each of the Derby Trail races at Fair Grounds, the Tom Amoss trained son of Northern Afleet was banged around pretty good on the first Saturday in May. If you can forgive him that 16th place finish, his New Orleans form, behind the classy International Star and ahead of Keen Ice, actually fits in with these. The 1 1/16 mile distance of the Ohio Derby should suit his rally well, and I would expect his crafty trainer to have him fully ready for this one considering his Ohio based ownership has been looking forward to it for some time. With blinkers on, he’s the one I will be using paired with Divining Rod; hopefully his owners' aggressive betting will not lower his odds too much.

6. Tencendur  8-1 - The New York-bred son of Warrior’s Reward is one of four horses that competed in the Kentucky Derby, and like the other three, he made no real impact on the outcome. Perhaps too much, too soon, he looked like an improving colt before that. His second place finish to the top class Frosted in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial was inspired, and note the strong pattern of works at Belmont since the Derby. He takes the hood off for trainer George Weaver for this one, which should find him in the middle of the pack early. While I like the two above him better, if his odds drift up into the double digit range, Tencendur becomes a must include.

7. Dekabrist  15-1 - Once a very promising juvenile, Dekabrist has run eight times this year, and has not finished in the money in any of them. Once again, he looks to be completely overmatched in his latest assignment.

8. Mr. Z  6-1 - Well traveled does not even begin to describe the odyssey the son of Malibu Moon has been on since debuting at Churchill Downs just under a year ago. The Ohio Derby will be his 14th consecutive stakes race, at ten different tracks, since becoming a first-out winner last summer. The bad news is that he is 0-for-13 in stakes races to date. The good news is that he has run many solid races in those defeats, often against top competition for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Will Saturday finally be his breakthrough stakes win? My guess is no, but as one of the early pace factors, and with plenty of class, he certainly rates a chance.

9. Bodhisattva  12-1 - The good news is that he won a stakes race at Pimlico at this distance just two starts back. The bad news is that in the Preakness, in which he faced really good horses for the first time, he may have demonstrated a real class deficiency. Maybe the storm and slop had something to do with the distant last place finish, but against all of these solid horses, and despite the addition of Victor Espinoza in the saddle, I cannot get too excited about his chances on Saturday.