Met Mile 2017: Odds and Analysis

On a card filled with big races, one race you should never miss on Belmont Stakes Day is the Met Mile.  From the Sysonby-Race King dead heat through the Frosted blitz, it is a race that never fails to bring the excitement. The 2017 edition may lack a true superstar, but as a betting race, it doesn't get much better than this Grade 1, $1.2 million test. The one-turn mile is both deep and contentious. Let's take a detailed look at the field of 12, listed in preference, and including my projected odds ...

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12) Awesome Slew (6-1) - Pace could make the race for this progressive son of Awesome Again. Always talented, but not quite good enough to beat the very best around two turns, it seems he has found a new lease on his career when switched back to one-turn racing. The way he has finished his last two, both graded stakes at seven furlongs, should suit him perfectly for a one-turn mile with plenty of speed in front of him. He's in career best form for his new barn, and this would seem like a race he was born to run.   The Top Pick

5) Sharp Azteca (5-1) - He will be the one they all have to catch. Proven to be one of the best one-turn horses in the nation, he could certainly take them all the way around on his best. Having said that, he should be in for some early pressure, over a track that I am not sure he loved when finishing fourth as the favorite behind Tom's Ready in the Woody Stephens. Adding to that, this will be his first race since a very tough race over in Dubai. If he does not have to work too hard early, he should be tough, and with less early speed in here than I first anticipated, I like him better than I did a few days ago. The One to Catch

1) Inside Straight (15-1) - This four-year-old son of Super Saver is a true unknown quantity. I'm not sure he is ready to make the same splash that Runhappy, also by Super Saver, made when he arrived in New York for the King's Bishop of  2015, but color me intrigued. This New York-bred has won 7-of-20 all over North America, and he's clearly in career best form. His last two at Oaklawn Park are very good, including a good looking win in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. I think he's turned the corner, and he's working well at Belmont. A far-turn move from the middle of the pack could give him a real chance at a price. Improving Longshot

8) Tom's Ready (10-1) - Last time we saw this Dallas Stewart trained runner at Belmont Park, he earned a tough, late-running victory in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens. This one is even tougher, but there are a lot of similarities to that strong victory. It will once again be a large field, with plenty of speed going one-turn. His return race last time at Churchill Downs was quite good, and he is well proven at the trip. Much like the top pick, I fully expect him to be rolling down the lane on Saturday. Major Player with Late Run

9) Mor Spirit (3-1) - Once considered a real threat on the Kentucky Derby trail, this Bob Baffert trainee has come back good from a layoff following his mid-pack finish in Louisville. Improving with each start, he has dominated in his last two in the Midwest. Mike Smith will once again be in the saddle, and he will have to decide how close the favorite should be to the lead. He's been right there in his last two, but this will be a much more contentious early pace. He's a legitimate favorite, but it will be a tough test. In his only other one-turn race of late, he could only manage fourth.  Favorite cuts back to one-turn

10) Virtual Machine (15-1) - The horse he lost to last time, Connect, would have been strictly the one to beat in here, if not coming up with a minor injury. In that Westchester, this improving son of Drosselmeyer got a class check after two sharp victories following a long layoff. He was a decent enough three-year-old, despite not winning, but looks to have developed into a better older horse. While he was no match for Connect, he was much the best of the rest. A similar effort here, possibly from a little farther back early, certainly puts him in with a chance. Might be This Good

11) Tommy Macho (12-1) - After a very strong win over Bird Song to begin his five-year-old season, the son of Macho Uno ran into Sharp Azteca and Awesome Slew in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, and he was not good enough. In his lastest, he deserved better in the seven-furlong Carter, but could not overcome a tough trip, and finished third. He's certainly one of many threats in here, but you have to take a leap of faith that he is really better than what he showed in the Florida loss.  Not Out of It

2) Rally Cry (12-1) - Still lightly raced, this four-year-old son of Uncle Mo could not quite handle the best last year. Having said that, we did not seem him in the second half of the year, and I do like the way he has returned this year. A solid second off the layoff was followed a sharp win against a very good New York-bred last time. The class question remains, but he might just be ready to make the move forward. Getting Good Now?

4) Solid Wager (20-1) - This California-based veteran showed some real life at the end of last year with a pair of late-running stakes wins. He is 0-for-3 this year, but he has made up ground late in all of them. Best of the three was his latest when he was a fast closing fourth in the Churchill Downs, behind Limousine Liberal and Awesome Slew. Off that effort, and if he gets the pace he is looking for in this one-turn mile, he could be an interesting longshot at a very square price, especially to fill out the exotics.  Picking up the Pieces

3) Denman's Call (15-1) - From the same connections that finished second in this race a few years ago with Goldencents, we have this Grade 1 winner from California. That big victory came as a 16-1 longshot two starts back in the seven-furlong Triple Bend. If you believe that effort was a harbinger of things to come for the son of Northern Afleet, and you throw out his last due to slop, you should be licking your chops at the odds you will see on Saturday. I'm not so sure about a horse who has only won 2-of-9 lifetime, and is a question mark beyond sprint distances.  Grade 1 Winner

6) Mohaymen (12-1) - Is the horse that won four straight graded stakes, and then finished a good fourth in the Kentucky Derby lost forever? One thing for sure is the horse we have seen in his last three offers little resemblance to the one-time early favorite for the Derby. His return race, a fourth-place finish in the Westchester also does not inspire confidence. If he can somehow bring back his best, he is a threat, but who knows?  Not Inspiring of Late

7) Economic Model (15-1) - While hard to imagine a horse with this much talent way down at the bottom of the list, it just goes to show how deep this field is. I'm not thrilled with the way he finished off 2016, and began 2017, but if he can find his best form last summer, he's not without a chance. Assuming the last was just a prep, and that he gets a fast pace to run at in here, perhaps he can wake up and make some noise late. Still, a victory might be too much to expect.  Needs to Wake Up