Mastery and Gormley ready to tangle in the San Felipe

Seven sophomores are ready to tangle in Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Run at a mile and a sixteenth on the main track, the $400,000 race has seen five of its winners also go on to wear the roses at Churchill Downs. It remains to be seen if there are any horses in this year's edition with the talent to compare to champions like Affirmed, Sunday Silence, or California Chrome, but topped by Mastery and Gormley, it is a race brimming with potential. With 50 Derby qualifying points available to the winner, the top contender for the 2017 Kentucky Derby from the West Coast should emerge in this one. Let's look at the field, in order of preference, with my analysis and projected odds...

4) Mastery (6-5) — On the one hand, his three races as a juvenile were strictly top shelf, and proof that he is a serious racehorse. On the other hand, he probably has not faced a true Grade 1 horse yet. Talked about before he ever ran, the Bob Baffert charge obviously has talent, and I am of the belief that he will prove to be the best three-year-old male in California. Having said that, the son of Candy Ride has not found an easy spot, or top rival to run against, in his return. He is my top pick, but he will have to come back with his running shoes on to get the win. Ready for Big Things

5) Gormley (9-5) — Was his poor performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile an aberration, or was it a sign that he is not quite as good as the best of this crop. Right now I am leaning towards the idea that he is still developing and getting better for trainer, John Shirreffs. It's hard not to appreciate the son of Malibu Moon's hard-earned win over American Anthem in the Sham Stakes in January. Judging from his morning moves, he should be ready to fire on Saturday. He is my second pick, but only just barely behind the top one. Big Shot to Beat Mastery

3) Ann Arbor Eddie (10-1) — The California-bred son of Square Eddie gets his second shot at Mastery, after finishing third behind him in November, and this time he has the conditioning edge. I am not ready to pick him to turn the tables this time, but I am expecting an improved performance off his last, when he weakened late on a synthetic surface in the El Camino Real Derby. I believe there is more class here than most may think, and I look for him to run another strong race for the team of Reddam and O'Neill. One Tough Statebred

6) Iliad (7-2) — After throwing in the towel in his career debut in early December, he quickly came back with two impressive wins, including the seven-furlong San Vicente in his last. I'm not sure who he beat in either, but the times were strong. He will need to prove that he can get it done at two-turns in this one, and perhaps more importantly, against some of the best three-year-olds in the nation. He is a threat, but I remain skeptical against the likes of Mastery and Gormley. Stretches Out

1) Term of Art (20-1) — The last of three straight from the barn of Doug O'Neill, he is a graded stakes winning stretch runner. Having said that, the son of Tiznow won his stakes on an off the turf main track, and has since looked a bit outclassed in his three tries against this type of competition. If the pace is hot, he could benefit, but anything better than a bottom of the exotics finish would be a surprise. Passes Tired Ones Late

2) Vending Machine (20-1) — He's the horse Term of Art beat in that off the turf stakes race, and like the horse just above him, he seems a cut below this level of runner. He did win a stakes race on the turf two starts back, so I would guess a return to the grass is in his future. Better on Grass

7) Bluegrass Envy (50-1) - Well beaten at 36-1 in a maiden race last time, it would seem highly unlikely that the change of coasts for new connections will bring him any luck at all against this bunch. Overmatched