Zipse: Malpais the longshot play in the Lecomte Stakes

As the New Orleans Saints embark on what they hope will be a march to the Super Bowl, the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail hits town this week with the running of Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes. While you won't find one of the winter book favorites, nor any Bob Baffert-trained entrants, the 1 mile and 70 yard test is still a race that should have your full attention.

Not only do several in the overflowing field of 14 runners have the potential to move forward and become legitimate Derby contenders, but the first Kentucky Derby points race of the year at Fair Grounds looks to be an outstanding betting race. In fact, my top choice in the race is listed at 12-1 on the morning line.

Trained by Joe Sharp, Malpais, began his career late last year and showed interest early in a field of maidens at Churchill Downs. The son of Hard Spun could only muster a third that afternoon, but the learning experience on a sloppy track seemed to do him a world of good. Brought back four weeks later at Fair Grounds, the dark bay prompted a fast pace before taking over the proceedings on his way to a romping win going six furlongs.

While light on experience, Malpais comes in off those two sharp sprints and is bred to handle the bump up in distance. Drawn in the No. 2 hole on Saturday, he should be able to use his natural speed to get a good position heading into the first turn, and in a large field without a lot of speed, that should be advantageous. The recent win over the track doesn't hurt at all, either, and you'll remember that his trainer, Sharp, experienced great success in the Kentucky Derby preps at Fair Grounds a couple of years ago with Girvin.

If Sharp and Malpais are to pull off an upset, it will come against several horses who have already experienced graded stakes racing. Two of his top contenders on Saturday will be making their first start since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Mr. Money and Tight Ten found different results in the year's most important race for 2-year-olds. The former outran his odds and finished a solid fourth behind the soon-to-be champion, Game Winner. Well liked before his first start, it took the son of Goldencents a few starts to get going, but he really responded when first stretched out to a route of ground. The effort in the Breeders' Cup built upon an impressive maiden win, also at Churchill Downs. Mr. Money has been working well for trainer Bret Calhoun at Fair Grounds since, and at 5-1 on the morning line, he looks to be one of the ones to beat.

Meanwhile, Tight Ten banged into the rail in the Juvenile and never really got into the race, ultimately checking in ninth. Before that, though, the son of Tapit demonstrated plenty of speed in class in his first three starts, including an easy debut win and then two competitive second-place finishes in graded stakes. If the Juvenile result can be chalked up to bad racing luck, his results in the Saratoga Special and Iroquois point him out as a threat on both the front end and the race to the wire at morning line odds of 8-1.

Favored on the morning line is Plus Que Parfait. Trained by Brendan Walsh, the son of Point of Entry drew one spot outside Tight Ten in the 12 hole and is listed at 9-2. An improving sort, he won a long battle to win by a nose at Keeneland in his third career start. He used the experience gained in that tough race to follow it with a bang-up effort in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, where he rallied resolutely before falling just a neck short of winner, Signalman, on the wire. He will need a similar effort in here to come through in the Lecomte.

Another interesting contender on Saturday is Manny Wah. Wayne Catalano trains the experienced son of Will Take Charge, who like the top pick, is coming off a nice performance while sprinting at Fair Grounds. That second place effort, when he gamely chased Gray Attempt all the way home in the Sugar Bowl Stakes, continues improved performances for the Lecomte longshot. Listed at 10-1 on the morning line, he finished the fall with two good efforts at a mile in Kentucky, easily winning at Keeneland before running a solid fourth behind Improbable in the Street Sense Stakes.

Yes, the Lecomte is loaded with potential stakes winners. I have not even mentioned yet War of Will, who made his dirt debut a winning one last time by open lengths, after a competitive run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

The bottom line here, is that if you like someone on Saturday, you are bound to get some nice odds. Even the favorites are bet-able at the price, but they are also vulnerable. On paper, the Lecomte looks like a race ripe for an upset, and there are a number of interesting candidates that can win at double digit odds.