Malibu Stakes 2016: Odds and Analysis

It’s almost time to say our farewells to the 2016 racing season, and to welcome in all that is to come next year on the track. While our calendar begins anew on January 1, the American thoroughbred year begins six days earlier. The date -- December 26. The setting -- Santa Anita. A wonderful card of racing on opening day at the Great Race Place, topped by a pair of Grade 1, seven panel contests, will happily move us forward to next year’s big events. The Pegasus World Cup, the Kentucky Derby, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic are all a furlong closer as of Monday at Santa Anita. A race won previously by Buckpasser, Damascus, Spectacular Bid, Ferdinand, and more recently, Shared Belief, the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes is a terrific way to kick things off. Without further ado, let’s take a look at this year’s field, including my analysis and projected odds.

7) Sharp Azteca (9-2) – Speed from the other coast, the Jorge Navarro-trained dark bay was a super impressive winner on Kentucky Derby day, winning the Pat Day Mile by daylight after chasing ballistic early fractions. He wasn’t able to repeat the feat in the Woody Stephens, but he didn’t embarrass himself either. After testing the two-turn waters with a good effort in the Prelude, the son of Freud dropped back to seven furlongs last time. A big win against good horses at Laurel should set him up perfectly for his first Grade 1 attempt. He can win from on the lead, or just off, and the distance and track should be right up his alley. The Top Pick

2) Mind Your Biscuits (5-2) – The New York-bred son of Posse took advantage of a fast pace in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint to finish a hard charging third at odds of 15-1. On Monday, he will get an extra furlong to see if he can grab the top spot this time in another Grade 1 at Santa Anita. The pace should once again be testing, so there’s no reason to believe that the chestnut colt won’t be in the mix again. Drawn down on the inside, he will need to work a trip for his late run, but clearly, it’s a race in which the Grade 2 Amsterdam winner has a big shot to win. The One to Beat

4) Ten Blessings (8-1) – Lightly raced and untested in stakes company, this son of Smart Strike is one of three in the race for trainer, Bob Baffert. After an impressive debut win early this year, he took a while to get going again after a layoff. In his last, though, and going the same trip as the Malibu, he looked like the horse with huge potential all over again. He finished that one off with style, and the horse that was a well beaten second came back to win next out. It’s a big step up on Monday, but this looks like a good spot for him to make a splash. Could Be This Good

8) Mor Spirit (4-1) – Perhaps the class of the race, and another from the Baffert barn, Mor Spirit has not run since finishing mid-pack in the Kentucky Derby. He’s been working well for his master trainer, and has yet to finish out of the top-two in five tries at Santa Anita. This is not the easiest of spots to come back from a long layoff, but he should be ready to make a solid account of himself. Look for him to be well back early, and see if he can outfinish Mind Your Biscuits down the lane. He’s not my top pick, but he is a big threat. Classy Returner

9) Awesome Banner (6-1) – A winner of six of eleven lifetime, this Florida-bred colt is a hard-nosed winner. His record becomes even better when you look at his races at a mile or under. In those races, he has never finished worse than second in nine tries. Having said that, I’m not sure I see quite the class, or the explosive speed of Sharp Azteca, who seems a very similar type in style. I will respect him, but he is not one of my top choices in this particular spot. Likes to Win

3) Semper Fortis (10-1) – After seven consecutive races at a mile or longer, the son of Distorted Humor drops back into a Grade 1 sprint. This looks to be his toughest test yet, but his consistency is a plus, and he could well sit a good trip. While I am not expecting the improved colt to end up in the winner’s circle, he certainly rates a serious threat to be outfinishing tired horses in front of him. Exotics Player

5) Jazzy Times (8-1) – The third from Team Baffert, the speedy colt has shown plenty of talent in his brief career. Unfortnuately, he has not proven the ability to beat good horses, yet. It’s not completely out of the question, but with all the quality speed in here, it seems like a stretch to expect him to get it done in this one. Another with Speed

1) Navy Hymn (20-1) – The former claimer could prove the speed of the speed in here. That’s generally not a bad thing, but with so much talent breathing down his neck early, I have a hard time seeing him stick around at seven furlongs. It looks to me like he likes to beat up on cheaper. Not in This Spot

6) Who’s Out (30-1) – While finishing first or second in five of nine lifetime starts, including a couple of fast wins, the son of Tale of Ekati has not had much luck in stakes racing. He finished sixth in the Shared Belief and eighth in the Gallant Bob this summer. Coming off a fourth in an allowance race last time for trainer, Jerry Hollendorfer, it’s hard to make a strong case for him in this Grade 1. Better Against Cheaper

10 Horse Greedy (30-1) – He’s proven to be a nice allowance sprinter, often in the mix in fast races. This race presents two big challenges for him, however. First off, the competition looks to be too much for him, and just as importantly, seven furlongs looks to be a little farther than his comfort zone. El Paso