Lecomte Stakes 2017: Odds and Analysis
Wide open. You won’t find a much more challenging handicapping puzzle than the 72nd running of the Lecomte Stakes Saturday at Fair Grounds. The 12-horse field is loaded with promising young horses, each with something to prove, as the New Orleans oval kicks off its trail to the 2017 Kentucky Derby. With 10 qualifying points for the first Saturday in May up for grabs to the winner, which three-year-old will move a step forward in this Grade 3 affair at 1 mile and 70 yards? We will not for sure until Saturday evening, but here is how I see the dozen, including my projected odds …
12) Saint’s Fan (4-1) SCRATCHED– I know he’s only had two sprints to date, but I have been extremely impressed with what I have seen from the Louisiana-bred. Bred to go a route of ground, he’s been talented enough to run down fast horses in his first two starts. I fully expect him to only get better with time and distance. Owned, bred, and trained by Dallas Stewart, this son of Tale of Ekati is already a winner over the track, and has continued to train forwardly for his two-turn debut. The far outside post does him no favors, but if Brian Hernandez can work out a good trip into the first turn, I like his chances to run big. In a very tough race, he is the one I believe to be the most likely winner. My Top Pick
9) Running Mate (10-1) – No doubt about it, the last one was a disappointment. For whatever reason, he came up largely empty down the lane in his stakes debut. Still, it was not all bad, and after two very impressive wins to start his career, I believe that there is serious talent there. As a son of Creative Cause, out of a Street Cry mare, he should be able to handle the stretchout. Working with I’m A Chatterbox in the mornings for trainer Larry Jones, should not hurt at all either. Without too much early speed in this one, the Bret Jones homebred could still be sitting on a lot of horse as the large field turns for home. On the Bounce Back
8) Guest Suite (6-1) – Neil Howard could be sitting on a big meet at Fair Grounds. With the experienced Eagle ready to roll on the handicap front, and this good-looking son of Quality Road joining the Derby trail, the veteran trainer looks to have some quality ammunition. Debuting back in August at Ellis Park, this rallying gelding has improved with each start. There was nothing wrong with his first three races, which included a third to McCraken in the Street Sense Stakes, but it was in his last where his potential really came to light. The 6 ¼-length victory at a flat mile under the twin spires of Churchill Downs in late November was one of the more impressive juvenile performances in Louisville last year. Strong Finisher
5) Untrapped (4-1) –After an eventful start to his career, when he rallied to a troubled-trip second to a good horse, this son of Trappe Shot came right back to dominate a maiden field at Churchill Downs in his second start. Off those efforts, it’s hard not to be at least a little excited about how good he could be. Like the top pick, the Lecomte will be his first try around two-turns, but given having Giant’s Causeway as his broodmare sire, you’d have to believe that Saturday’s trip is well within his scope. Plenty of Upside
4) Shareholder Value (6-1) – One of the more experienced colts in the field, Tom Amoss brings this one into his second stakes attempt off a strong allowance win, over the track, the day after Christmas. Before that, the bay son of Uncle Mo could do no better than a middle of the pack finish behind McCraken in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Having said that, a rough trip was at least partially to blame. One of many in here with a real chance, that local performance is a very good sign. More from Mo
3) Totality (12-1) – At first glance, this son of Tapit might look up against it, coming in off two straight losses. Further review, however, reveals a horse who, after a very nice debut win, had little go right in those last two. He really had a tough trip in his last at Churchill, before finding little to no pace in the Springboard Mile. Still, he rallied for second at Remington. Any improvement here puts him in with a chance. Longshot Possibility
10) Takeoff (6-1) – A $550,000 two-year-old in training purchase for John Oxley, he has progressed nicely in three starts for trainer Mark Casse. With Arch as a sire, you would expect him to get better with age. He broke his maiden in his first attempt in New Orleans in solid style. I have a feeling that his best days may still be in the future, but off his last, and with Florent Geroux in the irons, it would not be much of a surprise to see him step up in here. Another with a Shot
11) Pat On The Back (15-1) – A two-time stakes winning New York-bred, his first start in the South did not go well, finishing sixth in the rich Delta Downs Jackpot. He did make a little middle move in there, so the addition of Lasix, and running on a more traditional racetrack could provide hope. Having said that, I still think he will likely have more luck back with statebreds. First-time Lasix
2) Arklow (15-1) – While the well thought of Takeoff held him at bay last time, this Donegal runner did demonstrate a good deal of improvement in finishing much the best of the rest. Also a son of Arch, and out of an Empire Maker mare, improvement should be expected for trainer Brad Cox. Still a Maiden
7) Tip Tap Tapizar (20-1) - There’s plenty of stakes experience there, but unfortunately, in his three tries against really good horses, he did not show much interest. I could see him improving on his last, a sixteen-length loss at Delta Downs, but will that make him a factor in here? I doubt it. Headed in the Wrong Direction
1) Phat Man (20-1) - Hard to know what to think of this bargain purchase. He rallied too late in a turf sprint in his debut, before running off and hiding from a field of maiden claimers going a mile in the slop. I tend to think that this will prove too much for him, but there is enough promise in his first two to at least give hope. Stepping Up
6) Marco Mischief (20-1) – Like the one just above him, it’s really hard to gauge this Into Mischief colt. He rallied in the slop to finish second in his career debut at Gulfstream Park West, and then came back to just get up in a maiden turf race at Fair Grounds. Neither was particularly fast, but in both he finished with gusto. Class Problems