Kentucky Derby watch: Spotlight is on Incredibolt and Riley Mott

This is the second installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.

Last autumn at Churchill Downs, Sovereignty unleashed a powerful late kick to win the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes (G3) going away. It was the kind of victory that all but forces trainers to start dreaming about the Kentucky Derby.

Trained by Bill Mott, the Street Sense was the third and final race of Sovereignty’s juvenile season. The Into Mischief colt wintered in South Florida to prepare for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

In what turned out to be a magical year for Sovereignty and his connections, he not only won the run for the roses, but also the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes (G1) in what surely will turn out to be a championship sophomore season. 

This fall in the same Street Sense stakes, it was Incredibolt who came from the back of the pack to win in impressive fashion. Owned by Pin Oak Stud and trained by Riley Mott, the son of Bolt d’Oro turned in the type of performance in which Kentucky Derby dreams are made.

Also making his third and final start of his 2-year-old season in the Street Sense, Incredibolt is following a familiar path to get back to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May.

Taking a page out of his Hall of Fame father’s playbook, the younger Mott is wintering his top Kentucky Derby prospect in South Florida and giving him time to mature before the spring of his 3-year-old season.

"He’s doing super," Mott said. "He had a scheduled working vacation at Pin Oak after the Street Sense and arrived at our Palm Meadows base at the beginning of December."

A $75,000 yearling purchase, Incredibolt began his career by rallying to fourth in an Ellis Park maiden race. In a large field, the dark bay showed plenty of promise in the late-August debut, much like Sovereignty had done when rallying for fourth in a Saratoga debut almost exactly one year earlier. 

Like Sovereignty, Incredibolt was stretched to a mile for his second career start and rolled to a two-length score under the famed twin spires of Churchill Downs. The maiden victory on Sept. 28 set him up perfectly for his stakes debut in the Street Sense four weeks later.

Although Ted Noffey deservedly has been the toast of the 2-year-old class thus far, Incredibolt has two nice wins over the Churchill Downs main track. Out of the Awesome Again mare Sapphire Spitfire, the graded-stakes winner also has plenty of distance influence throughout his pedigree. 

With just under 20 weeks to go until Kentucky Derby 2026, Mott is in no rush to get the promising colt back to the races. But he also has an initial plan in mind to be fit and ready when the big one rolls around. 

"He’ll have an easy first breeze back this week. While staying flexible and open minded, our initial thought is to use the South Florida prep series to get us to May 2nd. The current target is the Holy Bull on 1/31," Mott said. 

It would be an amazing story for a father and son to win the Kentucky Derby in back-to-back years, and Sovereignty leaves very big shoes to fill after everything he accomplished in 2025.

Still, Incredibolt gives every indication of being a quality colt who should appreciate all 10 furlongs of the spring classic. As the calendar changes for the new year, the Riley Mott-trained colt is on a short list of top contenders for the first Saturday in May.

Although none of the biggest names currently on the Kentucky Derby trail will be in action for the rest of the year, three points races will be run this week. 

The Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun will kick off the action Wednesday in Japan and be followed by the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds and the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, both on Saturday.

This past Saturday, Litmus Test returned from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and advanced his Derby credentials with a solid victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). It was the 15th victory in the race for trainer Bob Baffert.

Track all the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby 2026 each week right here.