Kentucky Derby watch: Losing the battle but winning the war

This is the 13th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.

It would be nice to have a perfect record on the way to the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle, but the reality is the roster of undefeated victors of the run for the roses is a very small one. 

Not only are unbeaten winners rare, but most horses who have success at the Kentucky Derby already have lost in their 3-year-old season. Sometimes the best way to peak on the first Saturday of May is not to squeeze the lemon dry before the ultimate goal. 

Sovereignty proved it again last year by becoming the seventh consecutive Kentucky Derby winner to have previously lost at least one race as a 3-year-old. The champion son of Into Mischief finished second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his second start as a sophomore before glory at Churchill Downs. 

During a weekend of big prep races in Arkansas, Florida and New York, it was Class President, Commandment and Iron Honor who took home the trophies. All three were deserving winners who merit serious respect moving forward to this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Having said that, it would come as no surprise if the winner of the first and most prestigious leg of this year’s Triple Crown series is a horse who was beaten in one of the weekend’s three preps. Numerous interesting candidates fit the bill, but two grandsons of Tapit stood out. 

Chief Wallabee starts the conversation after missing the win in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth (G2) by a neck to Commandment. Having only a seven-furlong maiden race as experience, the physically impressive son of Constitution ran a big race in defeat. 

After looking so good in dispatching the talented The Puma in his career debut, much was expected of Chief Wallabee in what can easily be described as the best Kentucky Derby prep so far this year. He delivered on that potential in what was both his stakes and two-turn debut.

Unfazed despite getting shuffled back and pushed a bit wide into the first turn, Chief Wallabee settled into a nice rhythm down the backstretch for rider Junior Alvarado. Near the back of the pack early, he split horses to get into contention heading into the far turn.

Wide throughout, he ran farther than Commandment all the way around as the two went after the leaders. Both colts finished well despite the winner coming out into Chief Wallabee in the closing strides.

It was a strong prep for both of the top two, but I can't help thinking that the second-place finisher has more upside heading toward the classics.

It is a concern that he has only had two career races heading into his final Kentucky Derby prep, but that’s the state of modern racing. And who better to have him ready for the classic than his Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott?

He also has the advantage of having faced very good horses in each of his first two starts. The Florida Derby will be next for Chief Wallabee, where another strong performance is expected.

I also was quite impressed with Silent Tactic in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Sunday. Bred to run all day long and tomorrow as well, I find myself warming to this colt with each passing race.

The son of first-crop sire Tacitus was good in two starts in Canada last year, but it’s impossible to know how those all-weather races north of the border would hold up against talented American dirt runners. I am now officially a believer.

Yes, the Mark Casse-trained charge was beaten a dirty nose by a sharp and game Class President, but I loved the race he ran in defeat in the Rebel.

Heading into the test, I was concerned with his lack of early speed, but Silent Tactic showed Sunday that he is more than a one-dimensional plodder. Ridden by Cristian Torres, he made multiple moves in the swiftly run race. 

He also gave up real estate to the winner and, despite losing the photo, he was not backing down in the final stages. A strong gallop-out furthers my belief that the farther he runs, the better.

Well ahead of talented runners, this was his third strong effort of the season. Silent Tactic will arrive at the Kentucky Derby battle-tested no matter what happens in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Winning the battle in these prep races is nice, but with the big prize of a Kentucky Derby trophy looming, it is far more important to win the war. Chief Wallabee and Silent Tactic certainly look like two colts who could turn the tables come May 2.