Kentucky Derby watch: Will pace make the race?

This is the 21st installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs. 

Pace makes the race. The old racing adage might be the most important handicapping angle in the game. Proven to be a telling statistic with regularity in the Kentucky Derby, handicapping the big race without taking a good, hard look at the likely pace scenario would be a far cry from due diligence. 

Throw together 20 young colts in front of a massive crowd while running farther than they have run before, and the early fractions of the Kentucky Derby often become a little faster than riders plan for. I would not have said it a month ago, but with the addition of several horses who should be out early and pushing the pace, I believe we have all the makings for strong and contentious early fractions on the first Saturday in May. 

Running fast for the first half-mile is not necessarily a death knell for the early leaders, but when that quick tempo is contested and pushed by several horses, it makes the job of horses on or near the early lead that much tougher. How fast they go early on Saturday will be somewhat dependent on the track condition, but I look for a testing pace.

I am not necessarily suggesting a Rich Strike type of meltdown from a few years ago, but I do believe the advantage will go with horses coming from off the pace. A big performance from on or near the lead can win it, but I will look for the majority of top finishers in 2026 to be coming from well off the early pace. With that said, let’s take a look at my pace projection for this year’s field. 

Frontrunners

Six Speed. He has made all five of his career starts in Meydan, and he has proven to be a horse who is best when going right out for the early lead.

Pavlovian. He has stepped up his game in the last two for trainer Doug O’Neill, and he has done it while running fast early. 

Close to the pace

Further Ado. Perhaps the most talented horse in this year’s field, the Blue Grass (G1) winner likes to be right in the mix as the field hits the first turn. 

Danon Bourbon. The wildcard from Japan has dominated his competition to date with a strong cruising speed on the front end. 

Potente. Set the pace in two of his three career starts and has a very fast last out workout at Churchill Downs. 

So Happy. The Santa Anita Derby (G1) hero has always been near the early lead, and anything different while stretching out to 10 furlongs would be a surprise. 

Intrepido. Like Potente, he scorched the earth in his last workout and joins the other Californians in wanting to be close early. 

Litmus Test. One more from the West who has good early speed. His best performances have been when part of the early fractions. 

Mid-pack

Chief Wallabee. This lightly raced colt was pretty close early in the Florida Derby (G1). The addition of blinkers should be more for focus than for running too fast early. 

The Puma. Talented chestnut has enough early speed to be in touch early before making his move on the turn. 

Emerging Market. Another serious talent who probably does not want to be too far back in the early stages, considering his lack of experience. 

Commandment. The Florida Derby winner came with a late rush that afternoon. But his past performances show he does not want to be way back in the opening fractions. 

Wonder Dean. He was able to relax a bit before being the only horse who could take the race to Six Speed while running him down in Dubai. 

Incredibolt. With only a single one-turn race to his credit in the last three months, this colt can’t fall too far back early and expect to win at 1 1/4 miles. 

Late runners

Renegade. The morning-line favorite is the most feared late runner in the field. Traffic questions from the rail post position will make or break his Derby chances. 

Silent Tactic. Never worse than second in his career, this distance-bred colt probably moved too early in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Look for him to relax and wait in the Derby. 

Albus. He might have enough early speed to be closer to mid-pack. But after winning the Wood (G2) from well back, he likely will be closer to the rear of the field early. 

Deep closers

Fulleffort. The Jeff Ruby (G3) winner does his best running from way back. He should continue that pattern as he breaks from way outside in his first try on dirt. 

Golden Tempo. Four races into his career and it is quite evident that this well bred son of Curlin is a stone-cold closer. How many horses will he pass in the final three furlongs? 

Right to Party. The Wood Memorial runner-up has no early speed. Look for him to be way, way back in the early stages on Saturday.