Kentucky Derby watch: Best preps are still to come

This is the 15th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs. 

Wait for it. The best is yet to come.

Incredibolt finished like a good horse to win Saturday’s Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. It was a nice bounce-back race for the graded-stakes winning son of Bolt d’Oro, but not one that will foreshadow a big performance in the Kentucky Derby, in my opinion.

This coming Saturday marks the start of 100-point preps, which will immediately qualify at least two horses for entry into the Kentucky Derby starting gate on May 2 at Churchill Downs. There are solid sophomores entered in both the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park, but it would be a surprise to see this year’s Kentucky Derby winner coming from either of these races. 

I don’t intend to be overly negative about the horses running in the Virginia Derby, Louisiana Derby or Jeff Ruby, but rather to be honest about their chances to win the most prestigious race in American racing.

The good news is, the best preps are still to come. I am genuinely excited for three Kentucky Derby preps in particular this year. I believe all of them will feature multiple runners with a real chance on the first Saturday in May. The Florida Derby (G1), Arkansas Derby (G1) and Blue Grass (G1) all are coming up strong this year and should produce the horses to beat at Churchill Downs. 

Florida Derby, March 28, 1 1/8 miles

Chief Wallabee has run only twice, but his performances have displayed plenty. He toyed with The Puma late in both colts’ debut and then came back to run a beautiful second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) behind Commandment. It’s hard not to expect the talented colt to only get better for trainer Bill Mott. He is clearly a top contender for Kentucky. 

Nearly might be forgotten after plenty of spacing between races, but his win in the Holy Bull (G3) was impressive enough to believe he can contend with anyone in this division. Coming into the Florida Derby might not be a bad thing, as the Todd Pletcher runner clearly loves the track and is looking to peak in the spring. 

Commandment looks the part of a serious contender at both Florida and Kentucky after a romping win in the Mucho Macho Man followed by a gritty victory over Chief Wallabee in the Fountain of Youth. Like Nearly, he clearly is going good at Gulfstream Park. He also has the pedigree to keep getting better with experience.

The Puma is not yet confirmed for the Florida Derby, but running in the big one at his home base would seem most likely. After pretty good performances in his first two starts against very good horses, while getting less-than-ideal trips, the handsome colt responded with a sharp win against solid competition in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). 

Arkansas Derby, March 28, 1 1/8 miles

In a loaded Pletcher barn, Renegade might be the best opportunity for the Hall of Fame trainer to earn another Kentucky Derby win. Battle-tested after two wars with Paladin last year, his Sam F. Davis victory was everything you could hope for and has been flattered since. He is among my contenders for the roses. 

I wasn’t sure what to think of Silent Tactic coming from Canada, but the Mark Casse-trained runner has proven himself with three straight excellent races at Oaklawn. He finishes like a horse who could make plenty of noise at Churchill Downs. Anything less than another good one in the Arkansas Derby would be a surprise.

I am not going to forget about Blackout Time just yet. The Not This Time colt displayed class and talent at 2 but failed to have much kick in the Rebel (G2). Still, his fourth-place finish was a starting point, and as well as he is working in the morning, I expect a much stronger effort in his second start off the layoff. 

Blue Grass, April 4, 1 1/8 miles

Paladin will headline the field for the Blue Grass after strong wins in the Remsen Stakes (G2) late last year and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) to kick off his sophomore season. Trainer Chad Brown has the well-bred colt building for his best at Churchill Downs. He is a major threat to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Don't overlook what Further Ado was able to do last time he visited with Keeneland, romping home by a huge margin. It’s hard to be disappointed with his sophomore debut, where he gave The Puma and the talented Canaletto all they wanted at Tampa Bay Downs. He should improve off the effort.

Class President is not yet confirmed for the Blue Grass, but I expect this to be his likely landing spot. The Rebel Stakes winner showed his class by getting the bob over Silent Tactic last time at Oaklawn. If that effort did not take too much out of him, he is a horse to watch.

Reagan’s Honor will make his stakes debut at Keeneland but looks the part of a Kentucky Derby contender after his very impressive win last time at Fair Grounds. The workmate of top Louisiana Derby contender Golden Tempo, he is coming up to the test in nice shape.

Of course, there are outliers to every Kentucky Derby scenario. Cherokee Nation could be a danger at Churchill Downs if he continues to progress in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). If Class President is sent to New York instead of Keeneland, then the Wood Memorial (G2) could become of greater importance. 

Time will tell, but I believe it is very likely that this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will come from the strong fields of either the Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby or the Blue Grass.