Kentucky Derby watch: The big 5 who stand above the rest
This is the 18th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.
The preliminary races have been run and the field for Kentucky Derby 2026 is mostly set. With that said, there is still plenty that can go right or wrong in preparation for the most important race any of these young colts will ever run. We will learn a lot more about each of the 20 who make it to the starting gate, but they already have given us strong indications on who will have what it takes to run a big race at Churchill Downs on May 2.
Of the prospective field, I believe there are five who stand above the rest. The winner of the roses likely will be one of these five. Not to say another horse can’t win, it is the Kentucky Derby after all, but anyone outside this group of five would be a bit of a surprise.
Let’s start with Renegade, who has made short work of his competition in both starts this year. His trainer Todd Pletcher has oodles of experience in the Derby and has won it twice. The stretch-running son of Into Mischief will be well prepared for his biggest test yet after closing with sub-12-second final eighth at Oaklawn. From his debut at Saratoga, he has improved with each of his five career races. His victory last time out in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby was an impressive show of class and proof that he continues to move forward as a maturing 3-year-old.
Out of the Curlin mare Spice is Nice, he should be well equipped for the 10 furlongs of the Derby. His rider Irad Ortiz Jr. has a difficult decision to make with several top options, but the Arkansas Derby hero is his most likely choice. If that happens, Renegade likely will be the post-time favorite. If you are looking to beat the favorite, I can't find many negatives about him. He never has run at Churchill Downs, and as a confirmed late runner, he will need to find his way through the big field to be in prime contention at the head of the stretch. A good performance, whether it be for the win or a spot in the superfecta, seems likely.
Further Ado is next on the list after dismantling his overmatched competition in the Blue Grass (G1). A racy chestnut, he has thrown in two of the top performances of this crop in his maiden win last fall and in last Saturday’s romp. The elephant in the room is that both of those came at Keeneland, which has a different type of racing surface than Churchill Downs. But with a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last fall and a good second in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), he has shown ability at other tracks. Also regularly ridden by Irad Ortiz, that jockey’s decision will have an effect on both the odds of the race and the final outcome.
Althgouh Renegade will be in the back half of the field early, look for Further Ado to be forwardly placed. In some recent years, that has not been an advantage. This year could be different, however, as there does not appear to be an abundance of early speed. If you believe Further Ado ran his absolute best at Keeneland, he could be a bounce candidate at the wrong time. On the other hand, his progression from the Tampa Bay Derby in his sophomore debut to the Blue Grass could have him at the top of his game in his third start of the year for trainer Brad Cox.
Next comes Commandment, a determined winner of two straight tough races at Gulfstream Park. Also trained by Cox, we still do not know at this time who will ride the Into Mischief colt, as both Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat have attractive alternatives for familiar barns. Whoever ends up on the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) winner will have a big shot to win the whole thing. Arguably not as impressive as either Renegade or Further Ado, he instead got the job done in the strongest Kentucky Derby prep contested this year.
It’s never easy to win five straight, but that is what he will look to do next month. His four-race win streak began with a romping maiden win in his only previous start at Churchill Downs. With a little more early speed than Renegade and a stronger closer than Further Ado, he should find himself in with a chance at the head of the stretch. A proven winner, he likely will need a career-best performance to prove best in the run for the roses.
The Puma has been my favorite horse to bet so far in 2026, having gone off at 7.4-1 and 7.9-1 as my top pick in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Florida Derby. Maybe I should stick with the son of Essential Quality one more time, because there is a lot to like about this colt. One of two from this group who didn't race at 2, he is the only one to face each of the other four at least once. Tested for quality in each start, he has only one win in four races. But he came about as close as you can without winning last time in the loaded Florida Derby.
He also had excuses in each of his first two, with a poor start in his debut and traffic troubles in the Sam F. Davis. Trained by Gustavo Delgado, The Puma comes into this year’s Derby on a similar pattern as Mage, who won for the barn three seasons ago. I believe he will have square odds once again here and simply cannot be discounted.
Finally, there’s Chief Wallabee. Yes, he has not officially qualified for the field yet, but with only two defections needed, I am confident that he will be in the starting gate. Trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Junior Alvarado, he would be looking to give the tandem a second straight Kentucky Derby after the impressive wins last year by Sovereignty. The most lightly raced of the big five, he might have the most upside.
With stamina on both sides of his pedigree, he looked like a horse who would be quite happy to get an extra furlong last time in the Florida Derby. He was only third, but that is not a race he had to win. Despite his inexperience, he kept coming down the lane while being bumped from both sides. Having taken the worst of it at Gulfstream, he should be ready for the demands of the Kentucky Derby. Mott has him right where he wants him for his fourth lifetime start.