Kentucky Derby watch: Strategic Risk leads sharp quartet

This is the fifth installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.

We are only a few days into the new year and already the Kentucky Derby trail is heating up. Qualifying points races in Arkansas and New York were won in style, and impressive winners at Gulfstream Park made for an interesting week on the road to the roses.

Strategic Risk leads the way after a smart score in Saturday’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. Trained by Mark Casse, the son of Noble Bird was an impressive debut winner in the spring. But after three failed stakes attempts either sprinting or turfing, he did not appear to be a Kentucky Derby-bound horse. 

That all changed when he was stretched out to two turns on the dirt for his fifth career start. The John C. Oxley homebred aired by nine lengths in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion series and once again was on the map. 

He would face a tougher field in the two-turn Smarty Jones but was clearly up to the challenge. With slow early fractions being set in front of him, Strategic Risk moved up to gain stalking position on the first turn. From there, he waited until rider Javier Castellano asked for more on the far turn. 

The prompt was immediately answered, and the 5-2 second choice looked like a quality horse pulling away down the Oaklawn stretch. A winner by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:45.06 for the 8 1/2 furlongs, he seems to be a colt ready for graded-stakes competition. 

With Belmont Stakes winners on both sides of his immediate pedigree, Strategic Risk is a colt who should have no trouble as the distances increase.

He was not facing as strong a field as Strategic Risk, but Commandment stamped himself as one to watch with an eye-catching romp in the Mucho Man Stakes on the same afternoon at Gulfstream Park.

Bred to be a good one as a son of Into Mischief and the Grade 1 winning Sippican Harbor, the Brad Cox-trained runner began his career in October by spinning his wheels at the back of the pack before making up ground in a strong Keeneland maiden race. Off that effort, he was strongly supported and won going away next in a Churchill Downs maiden. 

With the word out and the quality of opposition questionable, Commandment was a heavy favorite in his stakes debut, and he did not disappoint.

Waiting to pounce under Irad Ortiz Jr. the $500,000 yearling purchase split a wall of four horses in front of him at the head of the stretch, and the Mucho Macho Man was quickly decided. Pouring it on in the final furlong of the one-mile affair, the physically impressive colt hit the wire nearly seven lengths the best.

In New York, My World validated his win in November’s Nashua Stakes with another solid performance to take home the historic Jerome Stakes on Saturday at the Big A.

Looking the part of a push-button type of horse for rider Jaime Rodriguez down the Aqueduct backstretch, the gray colt waited for his cue. When he got it, he quickly pounced on the talented Balboa but still had plenty of ground to make up when that one spurted clear at the head of the stretch. Powering home late, the smallish colt was two lengths clear at the wire. 

A $350,000 yearling purchase for Robert LaPenta and Madaket Stables, My World is a son of the first-crop sire Essential Quality, who counts the Belmont Stakes among his wins in two championship seasons. Like his sire, My World runs out of the top barn of Brad Cox. 

Very professional looking in victory and now a two-time stakes winner in New York, it will be interesting to see My World take on bigger and better fields as we move along the Derby trail. It also should be noted that the filly Dazzling Dame ran the distance 0.66 seconds faster in winning the Busher Stakes a few races later on the card.

Not to be overshadowed by the trio of stakes winners on Saturday, Nearly looked like a colt with a big future when winning a Friday allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

A $350,000 yearling purchase for Centennial Farms, the son of Not This Time was steadied early in his debut at Aqueduct and never got going. He quickly rebounded in his second career start for trainer Todd Pletcher with a 9 1/4-length runaway against Gulfstream maidens.

Friday’s field was cut short by scratches, but Nearly had to face the very highly regarded Confessional in the seven-furlong test. Bumped soundly at the start, he spotted the field several lengths a few strides clear of the starting gate. 

That margin did not last long, however, as the big bay colt gobbled up ground into solid fractions to be in contention as the field hit the far turn. Confessional tried to run with him but was no match down the Gulfstream stretch.

Nearly strode out to the wire much the best under rider John Velazquez. The five-length victory in 1:22.88 should set him up for graded-stakes competition in his next start.