Kentucky Derby Watch: Renegade's rock solid, Wallabee's in limbo

This is the 17th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.

Who is likely to win Kentucky Derby 2026? Going into last Saturday, my top three in no particular order were Chief Wallabee, Paladin and Renegade. Their fortunes took decidedly different turns over the weekend. 

Paladin was removed from Derby consideration after sustaining an injury during a workout. The winner of the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes, where he beat Renegade, will be sidelined indefinitely because of a condylar fracture to his right front ankle. 

Meanwhile, Paladin’s rival from last fall at Aqueduct more than held up his end of the top contender bargain. Renegade stormed to the front in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby (G1) and at the same time rocketed to the top of the Kentucky Derby rankings.

Finally, Chief Wallabee ran a sneaky good race in the Florida Derby (G1) but remains in jeopardy of not even making it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate after securing only third-place points. 

The news of Paladin’s injury is far from uncommon on the road to any year’s Kentucky Derby, but this untimely injury has to be especially heartbreaking to his connections.

The defection of the favorite means trainer Chad Brown probably will have to wait another year to win his first run for the roses after coming tantalizingly close with the champion Sierra Leone two seasons ago. 

As for the Todd Pletcher-trained Renegade, it’s hard to imagine any horse other than him going off favored on the first Saturday in May.

Renegade was an also-ran behind the dynamic performance of It’s Our Time in the debut for both colts last summer at the Spa, but the son of Into Mischief absolutely has come to hand for his Hall of Fame trainer. 

Building on the strong foundation of having tangled two times with Paladin in New York last year, Renegade has been a revelation in both his starts as a 3-year-old.

In the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, the $975,000 yearling purchase treated The Puma with disdain. Flattered by that one’s two races since, Renegade was even more impressive on Saturday as he took his show on the road to Oaklawn. 

Silent Tactic had been the best sophomore on the grounds this season but had no answer for the powerful stretch drive of the Arkansas Derby winner. 

Devastating down the lane, Renegade looked like another son of Into Mischief who dominated the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes one year ago.

Aboard Renegade in each of his three graded-stakes attempts, this might finally be the year the five-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. claims his first Kentucky Derby. 

Although Renegade has become the horse to beat in the first leg of the Triple Crown, Chief Wallabee could play spoiler, but only if he gets the chance to run on the first Saturday in May. 

Currently with 50 qualifying points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, the talented colt is perilously close to being denied a spot in the 20-horse field, and that would be a shame if it happens.

Trained by Bill Mott, who developed Sovereignty into a powerhouse at this time last year, the son of Constitution was unveiled at Gulfstream Park in January and immediately announced himself with a stylish win over The Puma.

Since that maiden victory, Chief Wallabee finished a close second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and a close third in the Florida Derby (G1). In both races, Commandment was the determined winner.

Trained by Brad Cox, Commandment is clearly a major threat and an excellent choice to be the second favorite behind Renegade in the Derby. Chief Wallabee, meanwhile, would offer some value as a twice beaten non-stakes winner.

I believe if he gets the chance in 4 1/2 weeks, he can turn the table on Commandment. He received the least desirable trip of the top three in the Florida Derby and was still right there fighting between horses at the wire.

Now with three races and tough experiences under his belt, Mott should have Chief Wallabee ready to take a step forward at just the right time – if only he gets in. 

Who is likely to win Kentucky Derby 2026? Paladin is out. Chief Wallabee would be dangerous but might be left on the outside looking in. Renegade might just have it made.