Kentucky Derby watch: Zipse ranks contenders for 2026
This is the fourth installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.
As the calendar says farewell to one year and hello to the next, we are only four months away from the 2026 edition of the greatest two minutes in sports.
In that timeframe, very little can go wrong if you want to have your young horse at their very best on the first Saturday in May. Without further ado, here are my current Kentucky Derby 2026 rankings for the new year. Actually, in this baker’s dozen, Further Ado is included.
1. Ted Noffey (Into Mischief–Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned). There may be questions about his ability to excel at classic distances, but there is little doubt that this striking son of Into Mischief was the best juvenile in the U.S. in 2025. Decisive Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful at Saratoga, Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar were proof of that as he also showed an ability to win anywhere. He is a solid choice for the top spot right now, but let’s see how the unbeaten colt develops as a sophomore for trainer Todd Pletcher.
2. Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro–Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again). This $75,000 yearling purchase bargain for Pin Oak Stud earned both of his juvenile wins over the Churchill Downs main track. From the barn of Riley Mott, he debuted at Ellis Park and made up ground in a big field, finishing fourth, but he was ready to shine in his second career start. After a nice maiden score going a flat mile, he came back four weeks later with an eye-catching, last-to-first expedition in the Street Sense Stakes (G3). After a short break, he has returned to the worktab in South Florida.
3. Paladin (Gun Runner–Secret Sigh, by Tapit). Still in search of his first Kentucky Derby win, trainer Chad Brown came tantalizingly close in 2024 with his champion Sierra Leone. This time around he has another handsome son of Gun Runner to make another run at the roses. In his career debut, the $1.9 million yearling buy faced another talented colt in Renegade and lost a battle to the wire but was put up via disqualification. Off the promising debut at Aqueduct, he came back to win the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) in style and overcame trouble to do it. He recorded his first workout in Florida on Sunday.
4. Further Ado (Gun Runner–Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa). Like Ted Noffey, this flashy chestnut is owned by Spendthrift Farm. The $550,000 2-year-old in training purchase showed promise while losing his first two career starts sprinting at Saratoga, but he became a whole new horse when stretched to two turns. First, he exploded to a 20-length victory at Keeneland to break his maiden in his third career race. He followed that up by becoming a graded-stakes winner with a grinding victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) over the Churchill Downs strip in late November.
5. Brant (Gun Runner–Tynan, by Liam’s Map). Continuing the Gun Runner theme, this is the first on the list from six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert. A $3 million 2-year-old in training purchase, he did not disappoint with a sharp debut score, which he followed with a win in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He then battled with Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before succumbing late for his first career defeat. He has yet to race anywhere but Del Mar, and his paddling running style could be a concern over time. But his pedigree suggests he will handle longer distances as he matures.
6. Napoleon Solo (Liam's Map–Atomic Blonde by Scat Daddy). Trainer Chad Summers might have a good one in this gray son of Liam’s Map. Instead of sending him cross-country for a run in the Breeders’ Cup, he freshened him up in hopes of a strong run at the classics. An eye-catching debut winner at Saratoga, he came back in the one-mile Champagne Stakes (G1) and blitzed a solid field with devastating middle fractions. Winning by more than six lengths in fast time, it was one of the most impressive performances by any juvenile. He has yet to test two turns but is clearly a big talent.
7. Litmus Test (Nyquist–Study Hard, by Malibu Moon). This $875,000 yearling purchase made steady improvement for trainer Bob Baffert in five starts as a juvenile and ended the season with a solid score in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He has the look of a durable sort so far and could thrive under the Baffert regimen. Two starts back, he showed he belongs with the best when beaten less than two lengths by Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He has returned to the worktab after his December victory at Los Alamitos.
8. Cannoneer (Into Mischief–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon. Bred to be a good one, this half-brother to the Grade 1 winner Girvin sold for $1.75 million as a yearling. Sent to the barn of Brad Cox, he made an early debut at Churchill Downs and came up a little short when third in a fast maiden race in the spring. Given plenty of time before his second start, he returned to the same track in late November and was as impressive as can be, romping home over a big field in a seven-furlong maiden race. He had his first workout in South Florida going four furlongs on Christmas Eve.
9. Blackout Time (Not This Time–Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality). The first of two in the rankings for trainer Kenny McPeek, this colt made a strong impression with three quality starts at three tracks in Kentucky. A promising debut second-place finish at Churchill Downs was followed by an impressive maiden win at Ellis Park. He then took to Grade 1 company, finishing a solid second to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He was forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup because of vet concerns and is getting time off, but if he returns healthy, he will be one to watch.
10. Universe (Global Campaign–Equalityforall, by Quality Road). Although he has yet to break through with a stakes victory, this McPeek charge continues to improve and run good races. A first-out winner at Saratoga, he came back to finish third in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct before two good efforts at Churchill Downs. A solid second behind Incredibolt in the Street Sense was followed up with a strong rallying second behind Further Ado in the Kentucky Jockey Club. He will make his first start as a 3-year-old when he faces a solid field in Saturday’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
11. Renegade (Into Mischief–Spice is Nice, by Curlin). If it wasn’t for Paladin, this Todd Pletcher-trained son of Into Mischief would be getting a lot more attention. The only maiden to crack these rankings, he began his career at Saratoga by finishing third but a long way back from the romping winner It’s Our Time. Next out, he showed big improvement as he split horses to get the better of Paladin to the wire in an Aqueduct maiden but was taken down for bumping his new rival. He was only second best to that one in the Remsen, but he showed he wants two turns while finishing quite well in the big field.
12. Englishman (Maxfield–In It for the Gold, by Speightstown). This one has made only one career start for Cherie DeVaux, but he made an impression. Out of the first crop of the impressive runner Maxfield, he was unveiled in September at Churchill Downs and toyed with his opposition in a seven-furlong maiden race. Not pushed in his debut, which was rewarded with strong speed figures, he has the look of a colt who will stretch out successfully. Owned by C R K Stable, he will attempt to follow in the footsteps of their third-place finisher in the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Baeza.
13. Boyd (Violence–A Taste of Red, by Street Boss). The third on the list for trainer Bob Baffert, this son of Violence brought $1.05 million as a 2-year-old in training purchase. Unbeaten in two starts, he made his debut going 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar and drew away in fast time. His next start came 1- weeks later in the 6 1/2-furlong Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs, where he again was a good-looking winner in fast time. Heavily backed in both career starts, we will have to wait and see whether he wants to run a route of ground.