Kentucky Derby watch: Paladin validates his favoritism

This is the 11th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.

Fresh off a late surge to win the Grade 2 $500,000 Risen Star Stakes in his 3-year-old debut, Paladin validated his position as the current favorite for Kentucky Derby 2026.

At 9-1 on the recently concluded Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 4, the handsome son of Gun Runner is the only top candidate to win at 1 1/8 miles, and he has already done it twice. 

Trained by Chad Brown, who is still in search of his first Kentucky Derby victory, the $1.9 million yearling purchase was an adjudged winner over the talented Renegade in his career debut at Aqueduct in October. Paladin came back seven weeks later to power by same rival in the nine-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) also at Aqueduct. 

In the Risen Star, he stayed within striking distance early under rider Tyler Gaffalione as the pace was set by the stakes-winning Chip Honcho on a Fair Grounds track that was favoring speed. Making his move on the far turn, he chased the game front-runner the entire stretch before getting the best of him in the final 50 yards.

Look for Paladin to make his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on Apr. 4 at Keeneland.

Paladin is the current favorite, but Nearly is not far behind. The streaking 10-1 second choice among individual interests hails from the barn of the two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher.

The Florida-bred did not do a lot in his career debut at Aqueduct last fall, but he has been a different horse since arriving in South Florida. Owned by Centennial Farms, Nearly has rattled off three consecutive and impressive wins at Gulfstream Park under Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez.

In his latest, the Holy Bull (G3), the son of Not This Time pressed a fast pace set by the talented Cannonneer. Putting that one away with ease on the far turn, Nearly had no worries in the stretch and strolled to a 5 3/4-length romp in the test on Jan. 31. 

Nearly is expected to make his next start in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on Mar. 28.

Other recent stakes winners to receive plenty of support in the future wager include Renegade and Silent Tactic. 

Renegade (16-1) also is trained by Pletcher and already has tangled with Paladin twice. Second to that one in the Remsen Stakes, the Into Mischief colt finally earned his first official victory recently at Tampa Bay Downs with a good-looking score in the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes on Feb. 7 in his 3-year-old debut.

Silent Tactic (19-1), meanwhile, runs out of a hot Mark Casse barn and already has been two turns on four occasions. The son of Tacitus made two solid starts over the all-weather surface at Woodbine as a juvenile before traveling south to Oaklawn in Arkansas. 

After rallying for second behind a slow pace in the Smarty Jones Stakes, Silent Tactic took advantage of more pace in the rich Southwest Stakes (G3) and rolled from way back to score going away.

Among the colts who have made only one career start, Canaletto was most preferred in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager at 15-1. A $1 million yearling purchase, the son of Into Mischief was unveiled by trainer Chad Brown on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park and he rolled home by eight lengths while running one mile. 

Chief Wallabee, trained and ridden by last year’s Kentucky Derby winner duo of Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado, was not far behind Canaletto at 21-1. The Constitution colt made a winning seven-furlong debut over the talented The Puma on Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park, where he finished with a flourish. 

A number of talented Kentucky Derby prospects have yet to make their sophomore debuts. Among them, Further Ado, Brant, Napoleon Solo and Blackout Time lead the way.

Further Ado (24-1) was a sharp winner of his final two starts at 2 for owner Spendthrift Farm and trainer Brad Cox. The son of Gun Runner closed out his juvenile season with a good win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) over the Churchill Downs track and has been working steadily in South Florida for his return.

One of several contenders for trainer Bob Baffert, the $3 million purchase Brant (26-1) was a top 2-year-old in California last season. He won his maiden debut and the Del Mar Futurity (G1), before running a game third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Gun Runner colt has had four workouts at Santa Anita in preparation for his seasonal debut. 

Napoleon Solo (30-1) made only two starts to date, but he won both in a romp for trainer Chad Summers. Those wins came in a maiden sprint at Saratoga and the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct. With several workouts recorded at Palm Meadows Training Center, the Liam’s Map colt is close to his 3-year-old debut.

Blackout Time (32-1) had to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall but was very good in three juvenile starts before that. Trained by Kenny McPeek, he was a solid second to champion Ted Noffey in Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in his most recent start. Working well, look for him to kick off his sophomore season in the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Mar. 1 at Oaklawn Park.