Kentucky Derby watch: Is it time to shine for Not This Time?
This is the 16th installment of a weekly feature on Horse Racing Nation that tracks Kentucky Derby horses all the way through the first Saturday of May at Churchill Downs.
Not This Time was an electric juvenile 10 years ago for trainer Dale Romans, but the son of Giant’s Causeway never got a chance to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Campaigned by the Albaugh Family Stable, Not This Time improved in each of his four races at 2. After an overpowering 8 3/4-length romp in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs, he went west to finish a fast-closing second in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.
Having missed by a neck to the champion Classic Empire, his future looked as bright as could be. Within weeks of the Breeders’ Cup, however, his racing career was over.
One of the early favorites for the 2017 Kentucky Derby, he was retired to stud at Taylor Made Farm after being diagnosed with a soft-tissue injury to his right leg.
As a stallion, Not This Time has trumped his promising racing career. In his first six crops to make it to the races, he has proven to be a versatile sire of classy runners who are able to excel at any distance and on any surface.
Epicenter became an early star for his young sire during his championship season of 2022. Wins in the Risen Star (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2), Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers (G1) earned him an Eclipse Award, but he was denied victory in the Kentucky Derby by the shocking late run of the 80-1 Rich Strike.
Among a strong crop of sophomores in 2025, some of his best, Magnitude, Goal Oriented and Disco Time, did not make it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The one who did, Final Gambit, rallied for a respectable fourth.
Perhaps 2026 will be the year when Not This Time finally makes his mark on the Kentucky Derby. In major preps here and abroad, sons of Not This Time will go to post as serious players.
With Nearly, Blackout Time, Six Speed and Cherokee Nation, the 12-year-old stallion will have every chance to lock up multiple chances on the first Saturday in May with his talented offspring.
Nearly will face a stern challenge in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) from the likes of Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and The Puma. Still, it’s hard not to like what the Centennial Farms runner has done to this point. After a troubled go in his debut in New York, the dark bay has been on fire since arriving in South Florida.
Winning by an average margin of seven lengths, he has toyed with his competition in similar fashion in three straight at Gulfstream Park for trainer Todd Pletcher. Fresh and sharp since his romp in the Holy Bull (G3) eight weeks ago, look for him to have every chance to win at the head of the stretch.
Nearly has found the most difficult of all Kentucky Derby preps on Saturday but must be respected as a top contender in the $1 million test.
Renegade and Silent Tactic deserve top billing in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, but I would not be at all surprised to see a strong performance from the Kenny McPeek-trained Blackout Time.
Like his sire, he improved in each of his first three lifetime races in Kentucky. Blackout Time was a good second behind the champion Ted Noffey in the Breeders Futurity (G1) to close out his juvenile campaign.
His fourth-place effort in the Rebel Stakes (G2) was not great, but he should be better from the experience. Don’t forget he was coming off a five-month hiatus and facing horses who had been running recently. Blackout Time continues to work lights-out for his second race off the layoff, and I expect him to bring a much stronger effort in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby.
Meanwhile in Dubai, Six Speed will face a solid and deep field in Saturday’s UAE Derby (G2), which also includes well-liked colts Pyromancer and Salloom as well as the talented filly Labwah. I like the son of Not This Time as much as any of them.
Like Nearly, Six Speed was not at his absolute best in his debut but has looked the part of a serious horse with straight impressive wins at Meydan. In his latest, he was a dominant winner of the UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) nine weeks ago. Out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare Browse, there is good reason to believe he can handle the added distance of Saturday’s $1 million test.
One week after the doings at Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn and Meydan, Cherokee Nation will take to the track for the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Despite a career record of 1-for-6, I expect him to be the one to beat in California's most important prep. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert showed plenty of belief in the colt last fall by sending him to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) as a maiden.
He showed promise and ran against good horses in his first five races but was not quite living up to his potential. That changed last time with a monster performance in a Santa Anita one-mile maiden. The 10-length romp while running fast should give him the confidence to turn things around and prove that he belongs in what will be his third try in a graded-stakes race.
When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, it always has been a story of not this time for Not This Time. A seriously talented runner a decade ago, he is even better as a sire.
With a quartet of his talented sons primed for major preps in Arkansas, California, Florida and Dubai, this may finally be Not This Time’s time to shine on the first Saturday in May.