Kentucky Derby 2026 Sweet 16: Ted Noffey on top

With the Breeders’ Cup now in the rearview mirror, it’s time to take an initial look at the 2026 Kentucky Derby with new rankings of the most promising 2-year-old males in the nation, and beyond.

This first list of the Derby trail contains five horses that ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and three runners each from the barns of Bob Baffert and Brad Cox.

To no surprise the unbeaten Ted Noffey leads the way after his decisive win at Del Mar. Without further ado, pun intended, let’s take a look at my Sweet 16 ranking for next spring’s run for the roses.

1) Ted Noffey (Into Mischief--Streak of Luck, by Old Fashioned)

Trained by Todd Pletcher, this handsome son of Into Mischief has been a force in three major racing regions, with clear-cut Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful at Saratoga, Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. The big question heading into next year will be how he handles the classic distances, but for now he has done everything easily and is without question the nation’s top juvenile.

2) Further Ado (Gun Runner--Sky Dreamer, by Sky Mesa)

From the barn of Brad Cox, he joins Ted Noffey as Spendthrift Farm owned. After two decent starts to begin his career while sprinting at Saratoga, he exploded to a 20-length victory when stretched out to two turns in his third career race. The winning performance at Keeneland was proof positive that not only does this son of a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner want a route of ground, but he has a ton of talent.

3) Mr. A.P. (American Pharoah--Trenchtown Cat, by Discreet Cat)

Trainer Vladamir Cerin has this son of a Triple Crown champion headed in the right direction after claiming him in his career debut. Getting better with each start, he was a game winner of a key maiden race at Santa Anita heading into the Breeders' Cup and then ran a big race to be a closing second behind Ted Noffey in his stakes debut. A longshot in the Juvenile, he appears to be a colt that can run with anyone.

4) Blackout Time (Not This Time--Beauty Parlor, by Elusive Quality)

Trained by Kenny McPeek, this colt has already faced the top dog, finishing a solid second to Ted Noffey at Keeneland. He will take a little time off after being scratched out of the Breeders’ Cup due to vet concerns. His connections wanted to run and believe he will be fine for next year. In three starts to date, he gives every indication of being a horse of class and one that will like going farther.

5) Brant (Gun Runner--Tynan, by Liam’s Map)

The first on the list from six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert, this $3 million purchase did not disappoint with three very good races to begin his career. He battled with the soon to be champion in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before fading late for his only defeat. He has yet to race anywhere but Del Mar yet, but his talent is obvious. His paddling running style could be a concern over time, but his pedigree suggests he will handle longer distances as he matures.

6) Napoleon Solo (Liam's Map--Atomic Blonde, by Scat Daddy) 

Trainer Chad Summers had a difficult decision to make after an impressive victory in the Grade 1 Champagne in New York and decided not to send his star 2-year-old out to Del Mar for the Breeders' Cup. Two sharp wins at Saratoga and Aqueduct suggest this one could be any kind and perhaps the decision not to rush him will pay dividends next spring.

7) Incredibolt (Bolt d'Oro--Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again)

This son of Bolt d'Oro gives every indication that he wants to run farther and better yet, he is already 2-for-2 over the Churchill Downs racing surface. He will need to face better horses yet, but his win in the Street Sense was good enough to believe that he will belong against more quality. It would be some story if Riley Mott could win the Kentucky Derby one year after his father did it with Sovereignty.

8) Magna Victor (Maxfield--Eyeinthesky, by Sky Mesa)

After Forever Young's big win in the Breeders' Cup Classic, why not include a runner from Japan in these rankings? This one, from the first crop of the talented Maxfield, looked the part of the genuine article when he blitzed his competition in his 7-furlong debut for trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida.

9) Englishman (Maxfield--In It for the Gold, by Speightstown)

Trainer Cherie DeVaux has yet to make a splash in the Triple Crown series, but with this son of Maxfield, she may be ready to make some noise. A $400,000 yearling purchase, the bay colt looked very impressive in winning off by more than seven lengths in his September debut while going 7-furlongs at Churchill Downs.

10) Boyd (Violence--A Taste of Red, by Street Boss)

Another for trainer Bob Baffert, this seven figure 2-year-old purchase made it look easy in his only start to date, going gate to wire in a sprint at Del Mar in September. They are taking their time with him since, but he continues to impress in morning workouts out in California.

11) Paladin (Gun Runner--Secret Sigh, by Tapit)

Although he was fortunate to be awarded the win in his career debut over another promising runner, this handsome son of Gun Runner ran a good race and should only get better with experience for trainer Chad Brown. The $1.9 million yearling purchase has the pedigree to run all day long and into tomorrow.

12) Litmus Test (Nyquist--Study Hard, by Malibu Moon)

From the barn of Bob Baffert, this one has already tested Ted Noffey twice and looked better the second time than the first. Battle tested with three graded stakes races under his belt; he finished well to be a competitive fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile one start after traveling to Kentucky and finishing third behind top colts.

13) My World (Essential Quality--Quebec, by Into Mischief)

The Nashua winner has yet to catch much buzz, but he is bred to handle longer distances, and he has improved with each start for trainer Brad Cox. In his last, he was pulling away from the field nicely late in his stakes debut. Tougher competition awaits.

14) Confessional (Essential Quality--Speedy Vanessa, by American Pharoah)

Another from the barn of Brad Cox, this one has made only one career start so far. Despite little action from bettors, he looked quite good in easily winning a 7-furlong maiden race last month at Keeneland. Take note that he is the product of two Belmont Stakes winners in his immediate pedigree. 

15) Talkin (Good Magic--Rote, by Tiznow)

Trainer Danny Gargan believes that this colt will only get better as the distances increase. That is good news for the youngster who was able to get up and win in his career debut at Saratoga, before showing late interest to get up for second behind Napoleon Solo in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct.

16) Intrepido (Maximus Mischief--Overly Indulgent, by Pleasantly Perfect)

There are questions after his disappointing fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but the Jeff Mullins-trainee still made the list for two reasons. He broke poorly that day and is likely better than the result suggests, and before that he overcame some trouble to get the win in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1).