Kentucky Derby 2020: How I will bet the big weekend
From the most casual fan of horse racing to the most hardcore handicapper, there aren’t many weekends in the calendar that are looked forward to more than the Kentucky Derby. Not only does it offer great wagering opportunities, but winning bets on the Derby is an extra source of pride and bragging rights among all your friends.
With that in mind, I believe it is always good to learn from those who really know the game. Without further ado, here are my favorite wagers from a guy who follows the sport, bets all year long and hasn’t missed handicapping a Kentucky Derby for as long as I can remember.
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Betting the Kentucky Derby is not just about the “Run for the Roses”. Deep, talented fields during Derby Weekend offer excellent chances to win money long before the gates spring open for the big one. I am going to start the suggested wagers off on Friday, which of course is Kentucky Oaks Day.
In race 10 on Friday, The Alysheba Stakes, we can expect two horses to garner most of the betting support. McKinzie won this same race last year impressively, while By My Standards has been consistently very good in 2020. Either could win, but I see both as very beatable while not offering good betting value.
With By My Standards, Mr. Freeze, and Bodexpress in there, I am expecting a strong pace in the 1 1/16-mile race. That should set things up nicely for the late-running Owendale. The odds will be right after a dull run in the Foster last time, but he’ll get much more pace to run at this time. He’s good at Churchill, and he likes these middle-distance races with pace.
I’ll use him to start off a Pick 3, with Monomoy Girl, a very likely winner of the La Troienne, and my top three in the Kentucky Oaks.
Race 10 (Alysheba) Friday
$5 Pick 3 - Owendale with Monomoy Girl with Speech, Gamine and Shedaresthedevil = $15
In the Kentucky Oaks, I expect the two big favorites to go at it early, effectively setting the table for others to come and get them. Speech, off her excellent win in the Ashland, is the top pick for the upset, while Shedaresthedevil looks like a live longshot. Both appear to be in career best form.
Of the favorites, Gamine is the one I really fear taking them all the way to the wire. I’ll use those three to begin another Pick 3, with every horse in the field in the Old Forester Turf Classic, and then my top two in the Kentucky Derby.
This is a two-day Pick 3, and it combines three great races. In the Turf Classic, I see it as a very wide-open race, with a number of long shots that I think have a big chance — hence the use of the “ALL” button.
Race 12 (Kentucky Oaks) Friday
50-cent Pick 3 - Speech, Gamine and Shedaresthedevil with ALL with Tiz the Law, Honor A.P. = $30
On Saturday, I plan to get to the Kentucky Derby with several live multi-race wagers. One of them will be the Pick 4, beginning with the Distaff Turf Mile.
In that one, I have faith that Newspaperofrecord will be very hard to beat. The turf will not be firm, which she loves, and her controlling speed should dominate this race from gate to wire. I’ll single her with my two likely winners of the Derby City Distaff (Serengeti Empress and Ce Ce), use the “ALL” button once again in the Turf Classic, and then add my top long shot to the top two in the Derby.
Race 11 (Distaff Turf Mile) Saturday
50-cent Pick 4 - Newspaperofrecord with Serengeti Empress and Ce Ce with ALL with Tiz the Law, Honor A. P. and Ny Traffic = $30
Finally, let’s go for things in the big one, with a Superfecta play for the Kentucky Derby. It’s a race in which I really do expect the winner to come from either the division leader, Tiz the Law, or the Santa Anita Derby winner, Honor A. P. The former has been the best horse of the crop all year long, and I expect the latter to peak at the right time and love the classic distance of 10 furlongs.
I’ll use that pair on top, and, anticipating a rather formful Derby, I will add only one other horse in the second spot. That’s Ny Traffic, who seems to be a tenacious sort that will stick around while others are faltering.
In the third spot, I will add my top late runner, Max Player, who I expect to be picking up the pieces down the lane. And not loving anyone else in the field, I will sprinkle in several who I can see hitting the board on Saturday.
Race 14 (Kentucky Derby) Saturday
50-cent Superfecta - Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. with Tiz the Law, Honor A.P. and Ny Traffic with Tiz the Law, Honor A.P., Ny Traffic and Max Player with Tiz the Law, Honor A.P., Ny Traffic, Max Player, Major Fed, King Guillermo, South Bend, Money Moves, Enforceable, Attachment Rate and Thousand Words = $32
These are just some of the bets I will be making this weekend, but definitely my favorites. As always, I will watch the odds and see how the horses look on the track to decide on additional wagers. I encourage you to do the same.
It’s finally Kentucky Derby time! Be it May, or even September, this is a time to celebrate the great sport of Thoroughbred horse racing. I wish you all the best of luck this weekend!