Kentucky Derby 2020: Contenders and pretenders
Finally, only 12 days from the 2020 Kentucky Derby, it's time to get serious about handicapping the prospective field. As is tradition on this page, every possible starter is labeled either a contender or a pretender and placed into five groups.
The "top contenders" include the likely winner; the "longshot contenders" are the horses most likely to run a strong, board-hitting race at nice odds, the "distance pretenders" include the horses I see being a factor early but not at the wire; the "late running pretenders" are the ones who will pass tiring horses but not enough to hit the board; and finally "the pretenders" include those I expect not to factor into the race much at all.
Here are the possible runners listed in order of preference, including my expected odds for each horse:
The Top Contenders
Tiz the Law (6/5)
The undisputed leader of the division could not be coming up to the Kentucky Derby any better. He is now proven at the distance and seems to be only getting stronger with each and every race. This race is unlike any other, though, so no horse is unbeatable. His ability to break well and ease into good position makes him less likely to find bad luck, but the Derby has a way of creating chaos. Still, the New York-bred son of Constitution is a deserving heavy favorite. A repeat performance of his Travers victory makes him a very likely winner on the first Saturday in September.
Honor A. P. (8/1)
As opposed to the favorite, this one's final prep raised more questions than answers. In a race 3/16 of a mile shorter than the Derby, he seemed to be spinning his wheels for much of the stretch and was ultimately upset by Thousand Words. Since that effort, regular rider Mike Smith has been getting on him for workouts and has asked much more of the handsome son of Honor Code. His impressive win at 9 furlongs in the Santa Anita Derby is proof of his ability, and now being trained harder for the big one, he should be ready to fire. The classic distance of the Derby makes him the most likely upsetter of Tiz the Law.
Art Collector (6/1)
An impressive victory in the Blue Grass proved his class and then his win in the Ellis Park Derby was very easy, setting him up well for his shot at the Kentucky Derby. With more speed than the favorite, he should have every chance to hit the Churchill Downs stretch in a position to win. From there it will just be a matter of whether the Brian Hernandez, Jr. ridden runner is good enough to hold off the challenges of the final quarter mile. While I do believe that Tiz the Law is better, any hiccups for the favorite, and this one becomes a big threat to keep his winning streak alive.
The Longshot Contenders
Ny Traffic (20/1)
The second-place finisher in the Haskell was one jump from winning the Grade 1 race. It was another gritty race in what has become the norm for the son of Cross Traffic. Although he has yet to win a stakes race, he continues to make his presence felt, and he still seems to be improving. He has enough tactical speed to be close early while also having the ability to refuse to yield down the stretch. After the top three, I believe him to be most likely to hit the board.
Caracaro (20/1)
Javier Castellano will once again pilot this lightly raced colt from the barn of Gustavo Delgado, after riding him to a pair of solid runner-up finishes in the Peter Pan and Travers at Saratoga. While it is true that he was no match for Tiz the Law last time, he could be ready to make another move forward after arriving to the Spa off a long layoff and with very little racing experience.
Max Player (25/1)
Max Player, brand new to the barn of Steve Asmussen, has rallied twice to be third behind Tiz the Law in big races in New York. With a solid pace in the Derby, there is no reason why he can't do it again. Although he never threatened the winner in either, and the Derby is only tougher, he does seem like the most likely of all the late runners to pick up another nice paycheck.
Thousand Words (15/1)
While I fully expect the result of the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar to be reversed at Churchill Downs, this horse does seem to be coming around at the right time for his two-time Triple Crown winning trainer, Bob Baffert. He took advantage of an easy pace in a short field last time, which he will not get in the Derby, but he has proven the ability to run well from a stalking position, as well.
Dr Post (25/1)
A very good runner-up effort in the Belmont Stakes pointed this Todd Pletcher-trainee as a horse on the rise, but a well-beaten third in the Haskell behind Authentic and Ny Traffic left him a bit of a forgotten horse. I don't believe the race setup did him any favors that afternoon, so he could well offer value this time around. Like Honor A. P., he will need to work a good trip from mid-pack, but he is not without hope.
The Distance Pretenders
Authentic (10/1)
On one hand, he is one of the most accomplished and talented horses in this field. On the other hand, he looked like a horse desperate for the wire in just holding off Ny Traffic in the 9-furlong Haskell. Before that, he was easily passed by Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby. While I respect his speed and talent, I just do not believe he is built for the full classic distance he will find at Churchill Downs. He is the most likely early leader, but there will be too many talented horses knocking on his door on the Derby far turn.
King Guillermo (15/1)
Tampa Bay Derby winning King Guillermo has not been seen since finishing second in the Arkansas Derby way back on May 2. It's an unprecedented move to purposely come into the Kentucky Derby off a four-month layoff. Having said that, we know he has the talent to contend, and his recent works show plenty of speed. Given his freshness, I look for him to be a big part of the race early, before ultimately succumbing to the physical demands of the Run for the Roses.
Shirl’s Speight (30/1)
Perhaps one of the most talented horses in the field, I would expect some of that talent to come out at some point in the Derby. His first two races were impressive enough to believe he can make an early move into contention. Unfortunately, having only two races in Canada as foundation, and never before having competed on the dirt, this spot will likely prove too much too soon.
The Late-Running Pretenders
Enforceable (30/1)
Perhaps the most interesting of this grouping, the Mark Casse-trained gray made up some ground to finish fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes in his most recent effort. Still, it was a long way behind the winner Art Collector. Some improvement is expected this time, but he still seems like a horse most likely to be parked well outside for a belated rally that falls short of hitting the board.
Major Fed (40/1)
Trained to the big one after a runner-up rally in the Indiana Derby, this son of Ghostzapper on occasion looks like a horse who would really appreciate the 10 furlongs of the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, there are enough poor races in there to point him out as a horse lacking in needed class. He looks like a horse very likely to pass tired horses without ever getting into real contention.
Sole Volante (30/1)
The Patrick Biancone-trained late runner was a pretty big disappointment in a sixth-place finish last time in the Belmont Stakes. Perhaps it was not his best effort, but still there would need to be a massive improvement this time around to make up the kind of ground to be a true contender.
The Pretenders
Attachment Rate (30/1)
A second-place finish in the Ellis Park Derby behind Art Collector offers renewed hope for a horse who is 0-for-5 in stakes tries this year. Trainer Dale Romans is always positive, but even in that last one, he was no match for the talented winner. He seems like a horse destined for a middle-of-the-pack finish.
Storm the Court (40/1)
The champion juvenile of 2019 has yet to find the winner's circle this year in five tries, including a race on the turf last time. He does keep trying and isn't exactly running poorly, but he seems pretty well proven to be a full cut below the top ones this season.
Rushie (50/1)
Not seen since a slightly disappointing third in the Blue Grass, it would seem that if he is entered he will be down the list of horses who want to stay relatively close to the early pace. It might be best if they look elsewhere for a colt who probably needs a little confidence against lesser.
Finnick the Fierce (50/1)
Seventh most recently behind Art Collector in the Blue Grass, he certainly deserves to be a big longshot in the Kentucky Derby. On the positive side, he does have a few nice performances in his past performances to give hope, but he just doesn't seem talented enough to be a board hitter in this one.
Money Moves (50/1)
There is certainly some talent there for the son of Candy Ride from the barn of Todd Pletcher, but with only three lifetime starts and zero stakes experience, this large and talented field would seem to be a bit too much too soon for him.
Necker Island (50/1)
Perhaps he made a small move forward when taking third behind Art Collector at Ellis Park, but there still is just not nearly enough there to expect him to make any sort of meaningful impact in the big one at Churchill Downs.
Winning Impression (50/1)
Last time he finished seventh in the Ellis Park Derby. Despite trainer Dallas Stewart's prior history of hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby with longshots, this one is just not good enough.