Kentucky Derby 2018 trail: San Vicente Stakes odds and analysis

It may not offer Kentucky Derby points, but the San Vicente Stakes has been used in years past as a springboard by such stalwarts as Majestic Prince, Flying Paster, Afternoon Deelites, Silver Charm and Came Home. As recently as two years ago, Nyquist and Exaggerator competed in this early season prep at Santa Anita on their way to success in the first two legs of the Triple Crown. What this year's edition lacks in credentials it makes up for in potential. 

Saturday's seven-furlong, Grade 2 affair has drawn a compact field of six, and to the surprise of absolutely no one, it is a horse from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert that will garner the most attention. Without further ado, let's take a look at the field for the afternoon's sixth race, including my analysis and projected odds from the rail out ...

1) Ax Man (8-5) - Some horses come out ready to run in their career debut, and then some take that to a whole new level. Ax Man falls into the elite latter category. Flashing a world of potential, the son of Misremembered absolutely blitzed his competition at first asking a little over a month ago for trainer Bob Baffert. Interestingly, left in his wake that day was Lombo, who has already come back with two wins, including the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. As impressive as Ax Man looked in his first, he truly could be any kind. His workouts since have been strong, but this test could present a new set of challenges, as he not only faces stakes types, but there should be horses in here willing to make things difficult early. Certainly the one to beat, I will let you decide if he is worth the odds that could go below even money. Debut was an absolute pip

2) Mr. Jagermeister (10-1) - Speed, speed, and more speed -- that is what the Minnesota-bred brings to the table in his initial try in Southern California. He's clearly a horse with talent, but considering the speed to both his inside and outside, and the extra furlong he'll find on Saturday, I have a hard time seeing him sticking around late. Having said that, I have little doubt that he will make his presence felt in the early stages, and could ultimately play a part in who wins it in the end. Pace factor from the Midwest

3) Nero (7-2) - The other highly regarded Baffert runner has had two hard-fought races against some talented youngsters in his first two attempts. I would suspect that those experiences will do the son of Pioneerof the Nile a world of good moving forward. The problem here is that he has shown nothing but speed so far, and with everything said about the two inside him, that could spell trouble for his chances on Saturday. Obviously a talented colt, I would not put it past him to step up here, but the truth of the matter is that I like his similarly styled stablemate better. Another with speed and talent

4) All Out Blitz (3-1) - While most of this field is easily classified as pace or rallier, this one looks to be a bit of a wildcard. He set the early fractions in the Sham, and other than the big horse, McKinzie, he was clearly best. Now he drops back in distance, and finds a race with plenty of early speed. That should be a good recipe for him to find a spot in the middle of the pack and come home with a solid finish. If he is able to relax early, the improving son of Concord Point has a real shot to make big noise in here, but if he is unable to relax early, it will likely be too much to ask. Solid second in the Sham

5) Kanthaka (5-1) - Finished behind All Out Blitz in his first career try, but learned from that effort and came back to overcome trouble and get up for a win going seven panels on opening day at Santa Anita. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, that effort gives me strong hope that the Jimmy Creed colt can be picking up the pieces in the late stages here. With a plethora of speed to his inside, I have little doubt that the early pace will be hot in this edition of the San Vicente, and the long sprint distance of seven furlongs should give him every opportunity to kick it in late. This will obviously be a step up in class, but I like the race set up. Big upset threat

6) Kris' Rocket Kat (8-1) - The son of Eskendereya could only manage a fifth-place finish in his career debut, when he was sent off at odds of 21-1 odds at Santa Anita back in September. He did break a beat slow that afternoon, and in his next start, which came in November at Del Mar, he made amends nicely with a sharp win going 6 1/2 furlongs. Now he comes back 11 weeks later to see if he can build upon that marked improvement he displayed in his second start. He doesn't have the early speed of a few in here, but could sit a good trip from his outside post. I question if he has the talent of the favorite, but off his last, you'd have to give him at least a fighting chance. Should show late run

The Play -- While it will be fun to see if Ax Man is really something special, from a betting standpoint, I like Kanthaka to come running late as the likely fourth choice. I will use him in an exacta box with both Ax Man and All Out Blitz. Good luck!