Separating Kentucky Derby 2018 contenders from pretenders
The preps for the 2018 Kentucky Derby are over. It's now time to get down to brass tacks. Who can win America's most coveted race, and which horses are in it just for window dressing? This year, in a very strong year for the Derby, I believe there are seven true contenders to wind up being draped in roses. The others, well, they are merely pretenders for the crown.
As we analyze the entire field, let's start with those who can actually win on the First Saturday in May:
The Contenders
Vino Rosso (Curlin – T. Pletcher - J. Velazquez – 5-3-0-1) At the odds, which I project to be in the neighborhood of 15-1, this is the one contender which I am most excited about betting. He took a large step forward last time with a big stretch run to win the Wood Memorial, and I expect the late developing son of Curlin to be even better at 10 furlongs. He's proven not to be shy from a bit of bumping, and he should get a solid pace at which to run. This is also the one that his Hall of Fame rider liked all along. Look for him to make his presence felt down the Derby lane.
Bolt d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro – M. Ruis - V. Espinoza – 6-4-1-1) The Santa Anita Derby runner-up will not have to worry about needing to chase a very talented runner loose on the lead this time around, and that could make all the difference. Battle tested in five consecutive high quality events, the son of Medaglia d'Oro should sit a good mid-pack position, provided he gets out of the gate smoothly in the large field. Victor Espinoza picks up the mount, and he's had more success of any Derby jockey of late. Third time off the layoff should suit him well, and this is the race that they've been pointing for all along.
Good Magic (Curlin – C. Brown - J. Ortiz – 5-2-2-1) Another who looks to be waiting for the right time to bring his absolute best, it's interesting to see how the hottest trainer in America feels about this one. Clearly, Brown thinks that the Juvenile Champion is ready to fire his best in his third start of the year. He also figures to have a good running style to make his move on the far turn at Churchill Downs. Discounting him here, after how he stepped up in his biggest test last year, is a mistake which I am unwilling to make. He'll need to run better than the Blue Grass to win it, but I feel confident that the son of a two-time Horse of the Year will bring his 'A' game at the right time.
Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy – A. O’Brien - R. Moore – 7-4-1-0) International horses have not fared well in the Kentucky Derby since Bold Arrangement made a big run decades ago. Is this the one to buck the trend? There are plenty of reasons to believe the answer is yes. He's royally bred, and his pedigree says dirt. His first race on the main track was out of this world. Looking back at his turf class, you only need to glance at his one and only previous U.S. start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf to know that he can win here, and do it against quality competition. Win, lose, or draw on the first Saturday in May, the $3 million paid for him seems to be money well spent.
Magnum Moon (Malibu Moon – T. Pletcher - L. Saez – 4-4-0-0) Unbeaten and untested in four starts, he makes up half of the strongest Apollo Curse-busting team ever assembled for the Derby. His pedigree suggests that he can handle the trip, despite the way he drifted out in his easy Arkansas Derby victory. I also like the way his barn has been able to test him out both on or off the early pace. That versatility should treat him well both during his career, and for next Saturday. I know he beat solid horses in Arkansas, but this offers a whole new level of testing of that undefeated record. He just may be good enough to pull it off.
Justify (Scat Daddy – B. Baffert - M. Smith – 3-3-0-0) The hype machine has been all the way to '11' ever since he made his career debut in February, and why not? He has looked fantastic in each of his three career races and runs for the barn of the most successful Triple Crown trainer of the last quarter century. Visually, and from a speed figure standpoint, we have good reason to believe that he could prove to be the best of this crop. Still, with only three races, no foundation before February, and having faced only one strong horse in his career, we need to have a certain amount of doubt whether he can handle everything he will face on May 5. If he does, he is likely something very special indeed.
Audible (Into Mischief – T. Pletcher - J. Castellano – 5-4-0-1) This New York-bred fired off two big warning shots down in South Florida, winning the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in style. It's the same place that gave us a Todd Pletcher-trained winner of the Kentucky Derby last year in Always Dreaming. He also has a tactical style, with a strong turn of foot, desirable on the first Saturday in May. For those reasons, he is an obvious threat to win the whole thing. Having said that, I do like a few others better, as I would have liked to see him with a big performance away from Gulfstream, or against stiffer competition.
The Pretenders
My Boy Jack (Creative Cause – K. Desormeaux - K. Desormeaux – 10-3-3-2) There is so much to like about this late runner. He is consistent, should like the distance, is in top form, can run well on any surface, and is in good hands. Most years, I would like the recent winner of the Lexington, but not against this bunch. I just don't think he's fast enough to beat the majority of the seven above him.
Hofburg (Tapit – W. Mott - I. Ortiz Jr. – 3-1-1-0) While lightly raced, he stepped up to finish second in the Florida Derby, in which he was much the best of the rest behind Audible. He's bred well, and in a Hall of Famer's capable barn. Having said that, the lack of experience will likely hinder any real chance he has to threaten the best of this crop. Maybe down the road things will be different.
Solomini (Curlin – B. Baffert - F. Prat – 6-1-3-2) If this one ever puts it all together, watch out. Still, the rigors of the Derby, combined with the overall quality of this field, make this a near impossible spot to believe that he will bring out a career best on the May 5, and even if he does, it's still likely not enough to be in the picture at the end.
Flameaway (Scat Daddy – M. Casse - J. Lezcano – 9-5-2-0) All he does is run well. Admirable a horse as he is, though, this Kentucky Derby is a whole new ball of wax. Running second in some decent preps is not likely to translate well against one of the deepest Kentucky Derby fields in years.
Noble Indy (Take Charge Indy – T. Pletcher - TBD – 4-3-0-1) The Louisiana Derby hero stepped up and displayed some courage in his last. Further improvement would give hope, but I just cannot believe that the competition on that day stacks up well against what he will see next Saturday.
Enticed (Medaglia d’Oro – K. McLaughlin - J. Alvarado – 6-3-1-1) The Godolphin color-bearer does have a nice win over the Churchill Downs main track in his resume, but other than beating just an ordinary bunch in the Gotham, there is not enough there to believe he can compete with the best at 10 furlongs.
Instilled Regard (Arch – J. Hollendorfer - TBD – 7-2-2-1) The good-looking son of Arch will need to do much more than his last two, in which he finished fourth in both the Risen Star and Santa Anita Derby, to make a real dent in this field.
Lone Sailor (Majestic Warrior – T. Amoss - J.Graham – 8-1-3-1) He made a nice run in the Louisiana Derby, but was unable to stay in front of the re-rallying Noble Indy. How is he going to get by most of this bunch?
Free Drop Billy (Union Rags – D. Romans - I. Ortiz Jr. - 8-2-3-2) I loved him as a yearling and liked him at 2, but at 3, this colt just has not shown me enough on the track to believe he can beat the big boys in this one.
Combatant (Scat Daddy – S. Asmussen - R. Santana – 7-1-3-1) A nice horse who should cash plenty of checks in his career, but by not getting by Solomini in either of his last two, he leaves me with little confidence for his chances late in this year's Derby.
Bravazo (Awesome Again – D.W. Lukas - G. Stevens – 8-3-1-1) While it's good to see D. Wayne Lukas back in another Derby, it looks like The Coach will need to wait another year for a horse who can make some serious noise in the Run for the Roses.
Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford – D. Romans - R. Albarado – 5-3-0-1) As with his daddy, he has a high turn of early speed, which will have an impact on how this Derby is run. But seeing him stick around to the end is too much of a stretch to recommend, especially against this bunch.
Firenze Fire (Poseidon’s Warrior – J Servis - P. Lopez – 9-4-1-0) He dances every dance, but he looks neither good enough, nor wanting to do the distance enough to make any real impact in here.